As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[CoastalWx]

FV3 has been erratic at best from a synoptic point of view. 

[JC-CT]

Well I think the gfs does use the fv3 core

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I’ve had 2-5” and see no reason to change. 

Yeah... Like I said.. I was always thinking 3"-6"

[dendrite]

RGEM looking flatter 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Well I think the gfs does use the fv3 core

Yea I just looked it up. Still uses it since 2019. I haven’t found the straight FV3 to be that similar to the gfs though. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

RGEM looking flatter 

Impossible. It's already game over.

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/1880432856117440663?t=NCzIH_Jx5SASKMPPdGTpcg&s=19

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

RGEM looking flatter 

same with the ICON

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Impossible. It's already game over.

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/1880432856117440663?t=NCzIH_Jx5SASKMPPdGTpcg&s=19

He makes me want it to completely cave

[ineedsnow]

ICON actually is west of 18z once it gets out to hr 48  compromise coming?

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Impossible. It's already game over.

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/1880432856117440663?t=NCzIH_Jx5SASKMPPdGTpcg&s=19

Anyone calling it over an RGEM run isn't worth listening to.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, dendrite said:

He makes me want it to completely cave

lol me too , wow declaring a win 42 hours before a storm is never good 

[JC-CT]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Anyone calling it over an RGEM run isn't worth listening to.

Technically it was over a long range hrrr run

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Technically it was over a long range hrrr run

Yeah, but he claims the Canadian model wins.

[ineedsnow]

ICON is a really nice hit 

[weathafella]

The 48 hour hrrr got one right for some random event so now it’s incorporated into weenie algorithms.  What the fuck have we become…..

[moneypitmike]

No complaints from me on that icon run.

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc late afternoon winter discussion was pretty bullish for an interior snowstorm. Didn’t seem to be leaning towards the European. Will be interesting to see what they think in the middle of the night discussion.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wpc late afternoon winter discussion was pretty publish for an interior snowstorm. Didn’t seem to be leaning towards the European. Will be interesting to see what they think in the middle of the night discussion.

It said it’s discounting the operational euro and blending ai euro and graphcast 

[ineedsnow]

RGEM still really amped

[ineedsnow]

sign me up for that run!

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

No complaints from me on that icon run.

I'd take it and run here.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It said it’s discounting the operational euro and blending ai euro and graphcast 

I mean, I understand the most see the European as superior, but when the Canadian in the American models are more amped up in the euros AI version is pretty robust then you probably have to compromise the euro a decent way towards the GFS and Canadian

[moneypitmike]

Most will be happy with either the ICON or Reg.  Off to bed......hopefully the rest of the models will show similar.

[8611Blizz]

icon is very close call here and for many SW of here. 5" to 1" in a very tight gradient.

[CoastalWx]

We toss Reggie 

[OceanStWx]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think so. They used to run a parallel version of GFS with an FV3 core I think, but I don’t think they are related in their current forms…I could be wrong though. 
 

@OceanStWx would be more up to date than me. 

It’s a different physics package so I wouldn’t expect one to predict the other.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m not back, but here’s my first call. About a 60/30/10 split between Euro/GFS/Others.

Hard to trust any of them imo but I think a compromise is more likely than utter capitulation by either side. 

May the odds be ever in our favor and we can take ‘em up tomorrow from NYC to Maine. 

[weathafella]

Reggie is definitely no where near as zonked as prior runs and it’s further east.  Keep in mind it doesn’t have much usefulness beyond  24-36 hours usually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I’ve had 2-5” and see no reason to change. 

Same...maybe some spot 6" amounts.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Most will be happy with either the ICON or Reg.  Off to bed......hopefully the rest of the models will show similar.

ya we take.. feeling like crap tonight might have to sleep soon myself