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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Odds on eps keep on diminishing not what you want to see 

The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

To be fair, we’re still over 100 hours out. Hopefully things align once we get inside of 4 days. It’s not like we have a ton of variance on the larger scale trough position. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Some points I see that argue for some snow, are a lazy and baggy baroclinic zone shown by the thicknesses and especially on the MSLP charts. Cold air isn't in a rush to come in. The tendency for 500mb ridging to be a tad stronger than modeled last 10 years or so, and the s/w is pretty far north which argues for a sloped baroclinic zone from SE-NW and some frontogenesis well NW of the low center.

Of course we are still sort of on the edge and we haven't had much go in our favor..but it's something to watch at 100 hrs out.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

yeah i mentioned the same aspect to him last night.    also repeated this morning, ' this probably needs to be < 72 or so hours' before the confidence spike

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted

I can't fluckin Believe it. You can't blame the Euro and you can't blame the GFS. Just go with the one who shows the Miss from the beginning because it always is a Miss. The last time the Euro was scoring higher with us not getting anything, this time the GFS was scoring higher with us not getting anything. There's no wrong or right model, it's just whichever model shows we're getting nothing is the right model. 

Another winter that sucks. And yeah, blah blah blah that we still have February. It's hard to stay positive when this keeps happening. As I tell myself all the time, it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What a melt from the APATT co captain. 

It's disappointment. Not a meltdown. Why are you such an a******. Seriously. You like nothing more than two make people feel like s*** because you like getting a rise out of them. 

I have zero respect for people like you.

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's disappointment. Not a meltdown. Why are you such an a******. Seriously. You like nothing more than two make people feel like s*** because you like getting a rise out of them. 

I have zero respect for people like you.

That was a textbook melt. it's all good

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