As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[SouthCoastMA]

38 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS is very meh Sunday 

for who?

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

for who?

Everyone 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Everyone 

Odds on eps keep on diminishing not what you want to see 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Odds on eps keep on diminishing not what you want to see 

The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

[weathafella]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

To be fair, we’re still over 100 hours out. Hopefully things align once we get inside of 4 days. It’s not like we have a ton of variance on the larger scale trough position. 

[CoastalWx]

Some points I see that argue for some snow, are a lazy and baggy baroclinic zone shown by the thicknesses and especially on the MSLP charts. Cold air isn't in a rush to come in. The tendency for 500mb ridging to be a tad stronger than modeled last 10 years or so, and the s/w is pretty far north which argues for a sloped baroclinic zone from SE-NW and some frontogenesis well NW of the low center.

Of course we are still sort of on the edge and we haven't had much go in our favor..but it's something to watch at 100 hrs out.

[MJO812]

Icon is a miss

 

Gfs leading the way ?