As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/15/2025 at 6:50 PM, Allsnow said:

EPS is very meh Sunday 

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for who?

[Allsnow]

  On 1/15/2025 at 7:29 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

for who?

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Everyone 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/15/2025 at 7:34 PM, Allsnow said:

Everyone 

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Odds on eps keep on diminishing not what you want to see 

[Allsnow]

  On 1/15/2025 at 7:47 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Odds on eps keep on diminishing not what you want to see 

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The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/15/2025 at 7:49 PM, Allsnow said:

The eps has been unimpressed so far for this potential event. The ops have liked it more but still lots of time left to go either way. 

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Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/15/2025 at 8:11 PM, weathafella said:

Yeah Tip mentioned the fact that the ops like but ensembles not so much.  

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We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/15/2025 at 8:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

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Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/15/2025 at 8:28 PM, weathafella said:

Not one easy system this year other than the rainers.

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To be fair, we’re still over 100 hours out. Hopefully things align once we get inside of 4 days. It’s not like we have a ton of variance on the larger scale trough position. 

[CoastalWx]

Some points I see that argue for some snow, are a lazy and baggy baroclinic zone shown by the thicknesses and especially on the MSLP charts. Cold air isn't in a rush to come in. The tendency for 500mb ridging to be a tad stronger than modeled last 10 years or so, and the s/w is pretty far north which argues for a sloped baroclinic zone from SE-NW and some frontogenesis well NW of the low center.

Of course we are still sort of on the edge and we haven't had much go in our favor..but it's something to watch at 100 hrs out.

[MJO812]

Icon is a miss

 

Gfs leading the way ?

[CoastalWx]

Too many models.

[weathafella]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Icon is a miss

 

Gfs leading the way ?

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ICON is a terrible model.  Why you would use that as an indicator is beyond me….

[512high]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:43 PM, weathafella said:

ICON is a terrible model.  Why you would use that as an indicator is beyond me….

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Lol, we are desperate, we look at everything! 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:43 PM, weathafella said:

ICON is a terrible model.  Why you would use that as an indicator is beyond me….

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How does a patrolman in the Bronx have time and ability to post every model run no matter the time of day or night ?

[8611Blizz]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

How does a patrolman in the Bronx have time and ability to post every model run no matter the time of day or night ?

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There will always be more crime, but there is only one icon...

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

How does a patrolman in the Bronx have time and ability to post every model run no matter the time of day or night ?

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Have you been to New York City in the last couple years?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:55 PM, UnitedWx said:

Have you been to New York City in the last couple years?

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Only to Yankee Stadium . I think I saw him posting the Korean 18z run during a thunderstorm outbreak 

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

How does a patrolman in the Bronx have time and ability to post every model run no matter the time of day or night ?

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He posts on his donut breaks every half hour.

[CoastalWx]

GFS will miss.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/15/2025 at 10:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS will miss.

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Now it just has a norlun reaching Cape Ann. Fraud 5 won't disappoint this time

[MJO812]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:55 PM, UnitedWx said:

Have you been to New York City in the last couple years?

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I hate it

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/15/2025 at 9:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

How does a patrolman in the Bronx have time and ability to post every model run no matter the time of day or night ?

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He's deployed around Coney Island, sucking back weenies.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/15/2025 at 8:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles. 

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yeah i mentioned the same aspect to him last night.    also repeated this morning, ' this probably needs to be < 72 or so hours' before the confidence spike

[Snowcrazed71]

I can't fluckin Believe it. You can't blame the Euro and you can't blame the GFS. Just go with the one who shows the Miss from the beginning because it always is a Miss. The last time the Euro was scoring higher with us not getting anything, this time the GFS was scoring higher with us not getting anything. There's no wrong or right model, it's just whichever model shows we're getting nothing is the right model. 

Another winter that sucks. And yeah, blah blah blah that we still have February. It's hard to stay positive when this keeps happening. As I tell myself all the time, it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What a melt from the APATT co captain. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/15/2025 at 10:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

He's deployed around Coney Island, sucking back weenies.

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I don't work in the Bronx or coney island .

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/15/2025 at 11:01 PM, MJO812 said:

I don't work in the Bronx or coney island .

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Marcy projects? 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2025 at 11:01 PM, MJO812 said:

I don't work in the Bronx or coney island .

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You never tell us exactly what you do or where you work. My guess is you are in an office setting. You’re not out in a patrol car posting like you do. Not possible 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/15/2025 at 10:58 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What a melt from the APATT co captain. 

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It's disappointment. Not a meltdown. Why are you such an a******. Seriously. You like nothing more than two make people feel like s*** because you like getting a rise out of them. 

I have zero respect for people like you.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/15/2025 at 11:11 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's disappointment. Not a meltdown. Why are you such an a******. Seriously. You like nothing more than two make people feel like s*** because you like getting a rise out of them. 

I have zero respect for people like you.

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That was a textbook melt. it's all good