As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dryslot]

I want my motherfukkas!!

MEX TEXT BULLETIN 

 KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/17/2025  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  20  37| 28  36|  8  18| -2  17| -3  18| -5  24|  7  28| 17 10 29
 TMP  24  35| 28  28|  8  11|  0  10| -2  10| -2  17|  9  22| 19      
 DPT  20  32| 20  14| -1  -6|-10  -5|-10  -3| -9   5|  5  11| 14      
 CLD  PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| PC  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   5   9|  7  11| 15  16|  9  13|  6  10|  4   8|  5   8|  5      
 P12   0  76| 85  51| 95  22|  8  18| 19  19| 10  19| 17  29| 35999999
 P24      76|     92|     96|     18|     19|     22|     39|      999
 Q12   0   1|  2   1|  3   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      2|      3|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  2    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  0      
 PZP   4   4|  1   0|  4   4|  2   3|  4   7|  7   7|  9  11| 10      
 PSN  96  54| 27  82| 93  95| 97  94| 93  89| 89  88| 87  79| 75      
 PRS   0  25| 24   7|  2   0|  1   3|  3   3|  4   5|  5   7|  9      
 TYP   S   S| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       1|      4|      8|      0|      0|      0|       |         

---

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if you're interested, here is the Ukie ensembles qpf and snowfall. Not west.

Mobb Deep?

[JC-CT]

Tbh, the euro is really the only strung out POS modeling right now. Total island. Objectively, it's the outlier.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Congrats Alex and Freak

Gimme some ARW SREF progs that crush and we are going old school east coast storm vibes for the forum.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS knows how to suck people in and once it has...there is no turning back. Once it shows a big hit, especially for multiple runs, it becomes a game of doing anything possible to justify why the GFS may be right. Been there and done that. No more

"Guhhhhh, the GFS is run out of Crapon's basement"

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Tbh, the euro is really the only strung out POS modeling right now. Total island. Objectively, it's the outlier.

They say compromise. We say Hypnotize

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How in the sam Hell is every other model suite gonna move 200-300 miles SE in 3 more cycles? Doesn’t seem realistic 

Toss euro and go skynet.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Tbh, the euro is really the only strung out POS modeling right now. Total island. Objectively, it's the outlier.

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Toss euro and go skynet.

What does it show

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

Heh, yeah lol. Just like they might see the gem and euro as the same "snowless" outliers here. But in reality, the gem and the gfs are much closer to each other than the euro op is to either.

[MJO812]

AI Euro

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wow I beat ineedsnow to a srefs image

As soon as I saw it posted I was like seriously lol 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Heh, yeah lol. Just like they might see the gem and euro as the same "snowless" outliers here. But in reality, the gem and the gfs are much closer to each other than the euro op is to either.

I have a deal...if guidance doesn't collapse towards the Euro then I will not make a May 1st thread. So for a compromise, if the compromise isn't Euro favored then no May 1st thread. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro

Isn't that east a bit of 12z?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

Been there and seen it cave in that situation. Ask NYC about that.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I have a deal...if guidance doesn't collapse towards the Euro then I will not make a May 1st thread. So for a compromise, if the compromise isn't Euro favored then no May 1st thread. 

Start it up

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Been there and seen it cave in that situation. Ask NYC about that.

One of the few times we can probably ask NYC  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

What does it show

Beers popping 

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro

Hi res version

[MJO812]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Hi res version

That looks awesome. What site ?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Isn't that east a bit of 12z?

Nope 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

See I think everyone would be terrified in that situation today, despite the front they are putting up.  Euro is the best model but it’s had its head-scratching moments enough to give one pause.

The other models have caught up to the skill of the Euro.  I would still expect a solid compromise in range of solutions.  Feels like with the decent cold this month, and the deepest shot yet pressing down, that the Messenger shifts SE are coming in the amped models.  The Euro is also going to beef up a bit.

We’ve seen this playbook before.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

What does it show

A solid hit for sne. 
 

[klw]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Congrats Alex and Freak

But having the SREF giving me the jackpot 2 days out can't be a good thing

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, klw said:

But having the SREF giving me the jackpot 2 days out can't be a good thing

It might still show the same thing after the storm jacked SE of you 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I doubt there will be a compromise track.  One side is right, the other wrong.

[apm]

29 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Tbh, the euro is really the only strung out POS modeling right now. Total island. Objectively, it's the outlier.

And virtually all of its ensembles.  A potent force.

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, klw said:

But having the SREF giving me the jackpot 2 days out can't be a good thing

I'd ignore SREF until like <36h personally

[dryslot]

Were due for the zoinked nam run, It could be coming real soon.

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Toss euro and go skynet.

I'm kind of going with the AI s*** too.