As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

No one likes to compromise 

[Damage In Tolland]

Someone will soon post how good the Srefs look 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

No one likes to compromise 

We compromise.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone will soon post how good the Srefs look 

“FWIW”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Here is the 90th percentile for reference it’s further west and more impressive than 12z.. The 75th and 90th percentile are the ones that show those western members I assume, that mean is more impressive and further west than 12z was .  The 10th and 25th percentile are pretty dry.  Still so much uncertainty on eps but some more moderate hits that are further west.  Let’s see if that translates to a more amped and west move at 00z. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We compromise.

West side til I die

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Here is the 90th percentile for reference it’s further west and more impressive than 12z.. The 75th and 90th percentile are the ones that show those western members I assume, that mean is more impressive and further west than 12z was .  The 10th and 25th percentile are pretty dry.  Still so much uncertainty on eps but some more moderate hits that are further west.  Let’s see if that translates to a more amped and west move at 00z. 

This was a good idea you had here to post this so you can bump this when it happens . I see what you did here 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one likes to compromise 

 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

lemme show you a couple of three solutions

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref are really amped. Not good for the coast. Hopefully they are wrong .

Found it !

[weatherwiz]

Well something will be caving at 0z. I'm sure we'll see some sort of compromise but its probably going to be mostly geared towards the Euro. Been burned way too many times on this before. I've had so many situations I get all amped up over crazy NAM/GFS runs at this stage, disregard the Euro, go aggressive on snow maps, only to be burned. The old me would be throwing out 6-10'' or 8-12'' today. Tired of making the same mistakes over and over. But this is depressing...time for a 3rd rum and coke soon. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Found it !

NYC thread?  They look good for here.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well something will be caving at 0z. I'm sure we'll see some sort of compromise but its probably going to be mostly geared towards the Euro. Been burned way too many times on this before. I've had so many situations I get all amped up over crazy NAM/GFS runs at this stage, disregard the Euro, go aggressive on snow maps, only to be burned. The old me would be throwing out 6-10'' or 8-12'' today. Tired of making the same mistakes over and over. But this is depressing...time for a 3rd rum and coke soon. 

If NAM/GFS runs are "crazy" at this late stage, then what good are they?

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NYC thread?  They look good for here.

The ones on the Connecticut coast are likely too warm for SE areas verbatim.

I guess it also depends on the trajectory from there, if the orientation of the front is WSW to ENE it's probably fine for most. 

Either way, it's a trash product.  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If NAM/GFS runs are "crazy" at this late stage, then what good are they?

I don't know. I don't really have a good answer for that. But all I know is there have been many instances of being burned, even inside this range because of discounting models or solutions and for various reasons. Some of the reasons include; 1) Because the solutions aren't showing what we want, 2) the solutions go against original thoughts, 3) it is very difficult to separate emotions from a forecast 

I'm speaking from personal experience here but there have been way too many times I jump on the "big snow" train because the NAM and/or GFS + ensembles are coming in hot and heavy...the Euro isn't quite there but "I'm expecting it to come aboard". So I go big on the snow. Then as guidance starts to collapse, I let emotions get in the way of reality and I try and look for anything...something that justifies the snowier scenario, even though its clear and evident its not happening. 

Yesterday I thought this was going to be a pleasant surprise and even today I've made some posts saying I think a foot could be possible where the heaviest banding occurs. And I can sit here now and try to find anything...something to justify that and just run with it because it fits my motive...but the reality is that just isn't there. 

When it comes down to it we just have to ask ourselves, in this type of setup, what warrants a solution which is more amped versus less amped? Off all the pieces at play here, historically what is the outcome? IMO, how quickly that front drops south and east is going to be huge. The more amped solutions are slower with the south and east progression of the front but it is from my brief experience that guidance can often be too slow with this...this would leave me to believe that amped/northwest is not as likely. I am also very nervous with the indications of the stronger convection well off the mid-Atlantic and that playing some role. This is something which has been discounted in the past but often times becomes a bit player. 

Too many flags right now and if we expect there will be some last minute miracle...well that doesn't happen often 

[ineedsnow]

Ya SREFS came way west

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya SREFS came way west

Fwiw 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya SREFS came way west

Do they crush?

[SouthCoastMA]

The Navgem sides with the euro, fwiw

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro chases that little blob to the east.. maybe it sees that and no other models do.. or it's drunk and will have a big change soon

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Do they crush?

Ya but even west of here it looks like.. must be some rainers 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know. I don't really have a good answer for that. But all I know is there have been many instances of being burned, even inside this range because of discounting models or solutions and for various reasons. Some of the reasons include; 1) Because the solutions aren't showing what we want, 2) the solutions go against original thoughts, 3) it is very difficult to separate emotions from a forecast 

I'm speaking from personal experience here but there have been way too many times I jump on the "big snow" train because the NAM and/or GFS + ensembles are coming in hot and heavy...the Euro isn't quite there but "I'm expecting it to come aboard". So I go big on the snow. Then as guidance starts to collapse, I let emotions get in the way of reality and I try and look for anything...something that justifies the snowier scenario, even though its clear and evident its not happening. 

Yesterday I thought this was going to be a pleasant surprise and even today I've made some posts saying I think a foot could be possible where the heaviest banding occurs. And I can sit here now and try to find anything...something to justify that and just run with it because it fits my motive...but the reality is that just isn't there. 

When it comes down to it we just have to ask ourselves, in this type of setup, what warrants a solution which is more amped versus less amped? Off all the pieces at play here, historically what is the outcome? IMO, how quickly that front drops south and east is going to be huge. The more amped solutions are slower with the south and east progression of the front but it is from my brief experience that guidance can often be too slow with this...this would leave me to believe that amped/northwest is not as likely. I am also very nervous with the indications of the stronger convection well off the mid-Atlantic and that playing some role. This is something which has been discounted in the past but often times becomes a bit player. 

Too many flags right now and if we expect there will be some last minute miracle...well that doesn't happen often 

That's exactly what happened last week. The GFS needs to give me a reason to believe in it again. Otherwise I will defer to re-crowned King.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya but even west of here it looks like.. must be some rainers 

Congrats Alex and Freak

[ineedsnow]

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro chases that little blob to the east.. maybe it sees that and no other models do.. or it's drunk and will have a big change soon

I hate when you see this because there is absolutely zero way to tell if it is correct. Sometimes guidance that shows this ends up being out to lunch and other times the guidance that had this ended up nailing it...but there is no way to know until basically now time. I was thinking that convection wasn't really impressive enough for that to happen but idk. 

[weathafella]

The weenie playbook is there for everyone to see ITT.

[dendrite]

Wow I beat ineedsnow to a srefs image

[mitchnick]

Don't know if you're interested, here is the Ukie ensembles qpf and snowfall. Not west.

[JC-CT]

SREFS!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

suck

[weatherwiz]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

That's exactly what happened last week. The GFS needs to give me a reason to believe in it again. Otherwise I will defer to re-crowned King.

The GFS knows how to suck people in and once it has...there is no turning back. Once it shows a big hit, especially for multiple runs, it becomes a game of doing anything possible to justify why the GFS may be right. Been there and done that. No more