As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[metagraphica]

I can almost hear Messenger cracking his knuckles and getting ready to type....looking down on all of us from above and shaking his head...

[JC-CT]

Just now, metagraphica said:

I can almost hear Messenger cracking his knuckles and getting ready to type....looking down on all of us from above and shaking his head...

He also really loved the rgem

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JC-CT said:

He also really loved the rgem

He placed that at the top of his model choices 

[78Blizzard]

The NAM has gone in the opposite direction of the Euro over its last 4 runs after being strung out at 0z.  I know, it's the NAM...

 

[Damage In Tolland]

It is funny that people are so hesitant to think the Euro solution might not be right and how much it makes them nervous . The last few winters it was bad . Maybe it’s right ., but it shouldn’t sway forecasts 

[8611Blizz]

This does show why most of the local Mets  have a giant caveat in their forecast. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It is funny that people are so hesitant to think the Euro solution might not be right and how much it makes them nervous . The last few winters it was bad . Maybe it’s right ., but it shouldn’t sway forecasts 

It’s been nails this winter. 
 

id like to think a compromise is coming, but it still not biting this close in should give some pause 

[ineedsnow]

Well either the Euro is going to destroy every other model or its going to get taken to the woodshed 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been nails this winter. 
 

id like to think a compromise is coming, but it still not biting this close in should give some pause 

It got one storm right 

[dryslot]

Its a red flag and causes pause.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If you look at the individual eps members there’s several members that are mini versions of Rgem and gfs now that are pretty far west .. 12z only had a few 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If you look at the individual eps members there’s maybe like 5 members that are mini versions of Rgem and gfs now that are pretty far west .. 

If we see more of those members move West tonight at 00Z, then yes, we have our answer on who led the way on this one. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If you look at the individual eps members there’s maybe like 5 members that are mini versions of Rgem and gfs now that are pretty far west .. 

5 out of 51.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If you look at the individual eps members there’s maybe like 5 members that are mini versions of Rgem and gfs now that are pretty far west .. 

I was hoping the 18z run would change.. on to 0z. I got to try and get some stuff done or wifey is going to get pist.. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

5 out of 51.

but 5 more than it was at 12z

[brooklynwx99]

EPS basically held serve. maybe a bit more precip NW

[dendrite]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

but 5 more than it was at 12z

Are we sure on that?

[Damage In Tolland]

The other models are not moving hundys of miles SE this close in. They’ll move SE but not as OTS as Euro. Especially with A1 matching other models 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Well either the Euro is going to destroy every other model or its going to get taken to the woodshed 

Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up. 

[brooklynwx99]

kinda hilarious that this is the difference between the RGEM, ECWMF, and GFS

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are we sure on that?

this was the 12z EPS Dendi.... everything was SE

[Johnno]

When was the storm that went from like 6-10” on the models and within 48 hours we ended up with like 1 or 2” after modeling flipped in the final 24 hrs or so, it was within the last couple years 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Johnno said:

When was the storm that went from like 6-10” on the models and within 48 hours we ended up with like 1 or 2” after modeling flipped in the final 24 hrs or so, it was within the last couple years 

Feb 13th last year. Although parts of CT then rallied in the short term for a nowcast bust and got 8-12” anyway but a lot of us struggled to get 2-3”. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up. 

Yeah. People need to stop viewing it as right or wrong and look at it from a compromise. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

5 out of 51.

More than 12z is the point 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

this was the 12z EPS Dendi.... everything was SE

Yeah looks like only 1, maybe 2, there.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

More than 12z is the point 

But also skewing the mean.  Median is so much better statistically.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are we sure on that?

10 out of 51 would have been well west of the op. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

But also skewing the mean.  Median is so much better statistically.

Not really, you look for a lean, especially when other guidance is leaning that way.. we will find out at 00z if those west leaners were a blip or not. 
 

There’s actually a lot of far east members skewing it east. Interesting I wonder if we take those out at 00z and eps jumps west. 

[dendrite]

I just want to know how many were in the RGEM/GFS territory 12z vs 18z.