As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RDRY said:

GFS has been disturbingly consistent.

Two days ago it was partly sunny 

[dryslot]

Messenger is laughing right now.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Messenger is laughing right now.

Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup. 

Well not if you’re expecting the Euro to come NW. That wouldn’t be a Euro win 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Wow that run was nuts

good hit of the smack, huh

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup. 

48 hours the RGEM is 998 ROA area...    60 hours, 982 in CC Bay.    that's 16 mb/12 hrs.     Bombgenesis   not bad.

18z GFS comes in a tick deeper fwiw -

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

FWIW, 18z Ukie is a touch more amped. Still paltry.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn’t mind a good  hit of your sack giving me a smack, huh

Can you elaborate please?

[Snowcrazed71]

So the latest GFS run was identical to 12z? There's some talk It was a bit colder and stronger? What's the snow map for the 18Z?

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Two cyclones in close proximity maybe making this a more sensitive scenario than usual

It's likely effected the NAM solutions more than any.   I went over this earlier but paraphrasing ...  tomorrow nights frontal wash is stalling out there between Bermuda and the GA coast by Sunday, and then this rolls up underneath - the NAM's hole-punched QPF layout in the 18z is a moisture starved system; it seems to be delayed in recovering the air mass post that front compared to the other guidance.  I'd hunch that if it could sniff thermodynamic gradient availability, we'd have two meso models with similar depth and rage      And it may end up getting there yet.... just delayed - we'll see. 

But the sensitive scenario, overall, is also related to the intense compression and high speed.  These factors make for tough modeling times translating mechanics through a field that is significantly absorbing/masking the S/W jets.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So the latest GFS run was identical to 12z? There's some talk It was a bit colder and stronger? What's the snow map for the 18Z?

Get this man some opium!

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well not if you’re expecting the Euro to come NW. That wouldn’t be a Euro win 

It would if we get a compromise that is skewed toward the euro (like 70/30 or 80/20). It would still be a pretty big hit for SNE but prob not widespread 1”+ QPF like we see on some of these runs. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Get this man some opium!

He’s tempting me to post the meme….I might have to wear it out this threat. 

[Typhoon Tip]

so the GEFs is a couple mb's deeper per interval.  Mean position indistinguishable from the previous cycle.  The member consolidation is even tighter.  

Sufficed it is to say, this 18z Euro rendition is going to be rather interesting -

[BrianW]

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so the GEFs is a couple mb's deeper per interval.  Mean position indistinguishable from the previous cycle.  The member consolidation is even tighter.  

Sufficed it is to say, this 18z Euro rendition is going to be rather interesting -

yup, vort is tightened up even more, but heights aren't much higher downstream. makes everyone happy from PHL to BOS

[ineedsnow]

GEFS look great!! Euro cave within the hour? 

[tavwtby]

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, vort is tightened up even more, but heights aren't much higher downstream. makes everyone happy from PHL to BOS

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Expecting 2-4” here for now. Expect disappointment and you’ll never leave disappointed. 

(Yes my wife has the same attitude)

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that.

Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late.  I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

if you look on the OP, you can see the mean trough over the Midwest weaken a bit, which helps to flatten the overall downstream flow a bit. hence the more zonal yet consolidated PVA

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you look on the OP, you can see the mean trough over the Midwest weaken a bit, which helps to flatten the overall downstream flow a bit. hence the more zonal yet consolidated PVA

To me this is a relay of forcing, which nets to keeping the track similar if not spot on the previous run cycle.

The gross, the track would shift E, but the subtle relaxing is actually allow cyclogen parameters to max more.  So the east is then compensated by a deeper slightly west feedback   = the same position by a mb or two deeper.  

It really is the better for it for snow enthusiasts.    Sometimes... we get lucky when threading the needle  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

good hit of the smack, huh

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look great!! Euro cave within the hour? 

The fretting and handwringing would be exponentially increased if the Euro goes even flatter and weaker.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that.

Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late.  I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4

Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean  heh ... it read like,  " whomf whomf" eyes rollin' back in head    hahaha

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Get this man some opium!

Huh?? Lol

Didn't have access as I was at work.  Home now and everything looks good

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming. 

I'm inclined to agree ...     this situation is different.  I mean it just is... stepping back and looking at that trough, it's hard to imagine all that consensus having a different configuration pathway.   It would be easier if this [ probably very ] rare scenario, for the correction vector to go away from the EPS mean.  I think technically the operational was on the western envelope?  

That might be a "yellow" flag

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean  heh ... it read like,  " whomf whomf" eyes rollin' back in head    hahaha

If we still had the DGEX, @ineedsnowwould be found slumped over in some back alley of downtown Fitchburgh ....passed out with a syringe just streamlining each run intravenously.