As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm just looking quickly but that QPF output by the NAM may be related to lift. Just looking at fronto/VV it may be signaling subsidence zones

yeah outside of a line from PSM to GON, qpf output is basically a topographic map

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not bad, Got its act together late, 6 hrs sooner and.........

I'll take 5" and like it as it more than triples January snow here, but it's odd to see the mountains, coast and the I-95 corridor modeled with more than the Maine foothills.  It almost never verifies that way.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I wonder what’s with that absolute porking over Springfield MA?
 

Just the nam doing some nam things.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

yeah outside of a line from PSM to GON, qpf output is basically a topographic map

3km is ugly looking too in that regard...when storm is moving through what should be a favorable spot for CT it has a good size area of dbz in the teens. 

I guess just another factor to potentially consider when going full on assessment mode tomorrow. There are still many flags and concerns to address which we should be able to resolve over the next 24 hours...hopefully  

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

3km is ugly looking too in that regard...when storm is moving through what should be a favorable spot for CT it has a good size area of dbz in the teens. 

I guess just another factor to potentially consider when going full on assessment mode tomorrow. There are still many flags and concerns to address which we should be able to resolve over the next 24 hours...hopefully  

NAM hasn't shown a lot of continuity here that would warrant heavy reliance

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

NAM hasn't shown a lot of continuity here that would warrant heavy reliance

No...but we are starting to get into the range where it may start to shed some insight on some of these more mesoscale components. At some point in the game the NAM will latch on and when it comes time to diagnosing banding and everything that comes with that the NAM will be very useful. 

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON might be amped up

[ineedsnow]

ICON coming west

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON might be amped up

 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON coming west

Breathe bruh. Breathe…

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

No...but we are starting to get into the range where it may start to shed some insight on some of these more mesoscale components. At some point in the game the NAM will latch on and when it comes time to diagnosing banding and everything that comes with that the NAM will be very useful. 

Meh, it's gone 1 run now actually having a storm at all. I'd say it isn't quite time yet

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON coming west

Please post a Kuchera map to let us know 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Please post a Kuchera map to let us know 

 

[ineedsnow]

Reggie not backing down

[ineedsnow]

18z Reggie might even be a little west.. but mostly noise

[dryslot]

18z Reggie is even west of 12z

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Breathe bruh. Breathe…

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter is going to get angry 

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z Reggie might even be a little west.. but mostly noise

Yeah, A big thud in EMATT.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter is going to get angry 

Hes not the only one

[MJO812]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, A big thud in EMATT.

Looks a tick southeast 

[ineedsnow]

Wow that run was nuts

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Hes not the only one

Imagine if this turns into a rainer to Mainer?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, A big thud in EMATT.

"Hey Scott, dinner is ready"

[dryslot]

Oye

 

[brooklynwx99]

the RGEM spits out 1-1.5" of liquid from SE PA into NH. idk, i don't think the setup calls for that here. seems a bit wonky

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Oye

 

Ray would honestly love that.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oye

 

That's mashed here.. take down the grid? 

[qg_omega]

East tick on Reggie

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Imagine if this turns into a rainer to Mainer?

Nice dry slot headed my way.

[SnowGoose69]

I'd give the RGEM no credit given the CMC's now no longer awesome performance on the 2nd storm but the ICON moving W gives me some belief maybe the RGEM gets weighted more than the Euro in the split difference in the end