As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[mob1]

Just now, dendrite said:

NAM will go big at 18z to get the interior happy and then everything will be east after that. 

Man, weather really messes with your psyche. 

[dryslot]

Hazardous Weather Outlook is good for now, Just make John Q Public aware that something may be on the way.

[Damage In Tolland]

If Reggie doesn’t move at least 100 miles SE 18z, then Euro suite will need to correct NW

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If Reggie doesn’t move at least 100 miles SE 18z, then Euro suite will need to correct NW

Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah shit.    man, seeing the Euro cluster this way, it does shake my confidence. 

I had been warning all along that this would be a shorter term correction nightmare.  Spent all that time talking about the compression handling ... recall " < 72 hours"  ? 

But I admit to thinking we might be coalescing the consensus short of 96 hours earlier. Seeing this though...  I don't know.  It could be one or the other wins,  or some percentage of either in a split of the goal posts.  

I was not sold ( still not ) on the heftier impact scenarios tho.  That same compression should really theoretically cap this thing's potential.  I just didn't think that would be because we get flurried -

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Long range HRRR remains very far west and amped, very RGEM like 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though. 

5-10 years ago we didn’t these massive battles.. though Reggie never went out 4-5 days back then either. Let’s get it just off the Cape and make everyone happy 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

5-10 years ago we didn’t these massive battles.. though Reggie never went out 4-5 days back then either. Let’s get it just off the Cape and make everyone happy 

pretty sure we did

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

pretty sure we did

I mean with all the Mesos we have now. Other than Nam and Reggie to 48 we didn’t have nearly this many 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Here we go again with a jacked GFS and a flaccid euro.

At least this time the jacked gfs is only 52 hours out.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean with all the Mesos we have now. Other than Nam and Reggie to 48 we didn’t have nearby this many 

yeah that's a fair point

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean with all the Mesos we have now. Other than Nam and Reggie to 48 we didn’t have nearly this many 

Yea. Many more models run more times per day run further out in time equates to a lot more noise.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Watches up for all of CT except coast and SE Shore. So they are going with the amped guidance.. Let's see what their discussion says.. earlier discussion threw NAM out and included EURO AI in the forecast.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Many more models run more times per day run further out in time equates to a lot more noise.

And somehow Tony and Ineedsnow find time to post them all

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Watches up!

That’s like Tip starting a thread 7 days out

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

5-10 years ago we didn’t these massive battles.. though Reggie never went out 4-5 days back then either. Let’s get it just off the Cape and make everyone happy 

oooh yes we did

c'mon Kev think back

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And somehow Tony and Ineedsnow find time to post them all

It's not easy lol

[dryslot]

Man snow  ***CANCEL***

Snow likely, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

That’s like Tip starting a thread 7 days out

Actually ... that's like anyone starting a thread 7 days out and having people that don't know how to read, immediately interpret it as though it's a storm projection - when it's merely discussing the table setting.    

There's no problem with starting threads 5-7 days ahead of a "period of interest" to discuss why.   "Look to this period of time for x-y-z to emerge because - "

If it's a declared a high confidence event thread, that's a different coverage and purpose. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ... that's like anyone starting a thread 7 days out and having people that don't know how to read, immediately interpret it as though it's a storm projection - when it's merely discussing the table setting.    

There's no problem with starting threads 5-7 days ahead of a "period of interest" to discuss why.   "Look to this period of time for x-y-z to emerge because - "

If it's a declared a high confidence event thread, that's a different coverage and purpose. 

Lighten up, Francis.  it’s a joke.
:)

[J Paul Gordon]

NWS has winter storm watch up for us now. 4-8 followed by intense cold. I'll take it.

[dryslot]

18z Nam is going to come NW this run, No shock.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Lighten up, Francis.  it’s a joke.

yeeah.... it was funny and jocular 5 years ago - use someone elses name.  It does become a problem when you keep singling one person out. 

 

Francis

[JC-CT]

The discrimination against Francis has to stop

[Typhoon Tip]

One way to look at this ...

... if the GEFs/GFS and the like were to be say 80% more correct in this battle, that would square the season. 

Because the EPS mean seem to win 80% of the argument on the last coverage.  

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam is going to come NW this run, No shock.

Way NW. Precip output looks blotchy and weird, atleast on cod graphics. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Way NW. Precip output looks blotchy and weird, atleast on cod graphics. 

Disjointed precip field.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, both Will and myself mentioned the NAM was trending since yesterday.  This is incrementally another trend step - almost collapsing toward the "anti EPS" consensus.

Man, this will be really satisfying watching the EPS capitulate

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Way NW. Precip output looks blotchy and weird, atleast on cod graphics. 

yeah what is that.   I was inclined to think that was just tech glitchy but how and why.

[dryslot]

Now we have one holdout.