As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya sucks he's not here to enjoy the chase, just noticed that 

We bust all in good fun but we need the APATT captain back. Hope he is OK.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Leaning towards a weighted Euro compromise, like 70/30. Really not a hard forecast for CT imo. Some spots may tickle 6-7” but majority will be below.

Ya if you go like 70% euro and 30% GFS and just discount GEM .. you get like a general 4-6" snow for CT and most in SNE not including ratios with the good bands.. I like our first call of 4-8" iso higher 

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

probably hold off on watches until tonight

Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Looks like EURO AI is unchanged on the lower resolution graphics.. Has that GFS 30% EURO 70% blend idea we just mentioned.. very solid for many 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like EURO AI is unchanged.. Has the GFS 30% EURO 70% blend idea we just mentioned.. very solid for many 

 

[ORH_wxman]

You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today.

or no watches at all.. hopefully we see some agreement tonight 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region).

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z, what happens then?

3-7, ez

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?

Probably burn all NCEP computers 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z, what happens then?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

3-7, ez

4-8 is just a slant stick away

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

4-8 is just a slant stick away

yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Probably burn all NCEP computers 

I can see it now, 18z euro barely budges, then 00z nam has an 12-18" stripe from West Hartford to Portland ME

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Bingo. Caution flags.

It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, JC-CT said:

yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs

I don't think this ends up that dry, EURO will beef up .. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I can see it now, 18z euro barely budges, then 00z nam has an 12-18" stripe from West Hartford to Portland ME

You know it's coming

the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don't think this ends up that dry, EURO will beef up .. 

what does H5 tell us to expect

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

You know it's coming

the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality 

Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Bingo. Caution flags.

It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.

NWS needs new color schemes for some of these advisories. Extreme cold watch and winter storm watch too close in shade. Could give someone whose had too many IPAs the wrong idea.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

For sure  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

what does H5 tell us to expect

That you should leave Nancy home and tune up the snow blower, a small tic sharper with the trough on EURO will be all the difference between 3-5 and 4-8"+ .. Only time will tell.. 

[Patrick-02540]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs

For the general population, if you forecast 3-6 and end up with 3, most people are happy because they got less snow.  If you end up with 7 or 8, they don't really know the difference because 6" affects them the same as 7 or 8, basically.  I think 4-7 is a good range in a setup like this- for my back yard, (even though I know I am getting 12).  

 

[Patrick-02540]

I haven't been around till just now.  Has the NAM come out with its monster solution yet?

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

Yeah but I’m pouring at midnight so I may see the drunk snow goggle view.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I haven't been around till just now.  Has the NAM come out with its monster solution yet?

Nope. All misses/grazes.

[dryslot]

The biggest differences is in the strength of the SLP, Nam and euro have it around 997mb whereas the others are 984 ish MB.

[dendrite]

NAM will go big at 18z to get the interior happy and then everything will be east after that.