As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Could be a burp by the euro family.  We’ve seen that close in a few times.

How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. 
 

But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most. 

[DJln491]

the difference between the EPS and GEFS at 60hrs out is crazy

 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. 
 

But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most. 

Yeah good point.  Queue the popcorn to watch the caves.

[dendrite]

GFS GGEM RGEM ICON vs EC JMA UKIE ARPEGE NAM

Nice battle

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What is skynet?

This 

[DJln491]

the euro op was one of the most western members actually.   not feeling great with the euro standing it's ground like this but looks like we should get at least some snow either way

[8611Blizz]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

the euro op was one of the most western members actually.   not feeling great with the euro standing it's ground like this but looks like we should get at least some snow either way

Theres a good 8-10 members further west than the op.. Op was about where the bulk of members are.. 25-50 miles SE of BM

[ineedsnow]

15z SREFS just jumped west FWIW 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yeah good point.  Queue the popcorn to watch the caves.

Euro has caved a few times in recent years, but yeah…it doesn’t leave a cozy feeling inside for me. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

15z SREFS just jumped west FWIW 

They had no choice based on where 09z was. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

They had no choice based on where 09z was. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Booking advisory snows. Like 2-5” in CT. 

[kdxken]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Booking advisory snows. Like 2-5” in CT. 

Does anyone really know? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, kdxken said:

Does anyone really know? 

Nobody does. We’ll just have to let it play out... then we’ll make the call. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Mean QPF did get a nice boost. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cancelling dinner plans uncancel?  Thanks Dendrite...

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody does. We’ll just have to let it play out... then we’ll make the call. 

Where is he? Did he get devoured by another pack?

[Ginx snewx]

Wolf is dealing with some shit. Let him be. Save a horse. EPS!

[H2Otown_WX]

Idk why anyone would get excited about the GFS. It was just last week that it tried to give us a 30" HECS and we got nothing. I would ride the Euro, it has the hot hand and just like last week it has been pretty steadfast on a 2-4" deal. Take that and run in a winter of coatings to an inch.

[Kitz Craver]

Well the last time the Euro went paltry and the GFS was a bomb… we know how that turned out. Bruce is hopping out onto the runway

[SnowGoose69]

Rare case where the #1 CIPS analog is a pretty darn close case...overall everyone from NYC to BOS was 2-5, there was definitely less of a surface reflection in this case though than this time

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Where is he? Did he get devoured by another pack?

He could be up in the small cabin in Maine with many men. He’ll be back at some point.

[Torch Tiger]

44 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Still waiting on the DiFax (or whatever it was called) to finish printing?

DGEX?  I think that was the la-la land ETA

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wolf is dealing with some shit. Let him be. Save a horse. EPS!

ya sucks he's not here to enjoy the chase, just noticed that 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

DGEX?  I think that was the la-la land ETA

Difax machine is what spit out the old model panels before everyone had internet to just view them online. Almost any TV station, NWS office, and university weather department had them. 

[OceanStWx]

Listening to a watch collaboration call right now. Will the WaWa map look like Cancun with the amount of GW or not?

[Snowcrazed71]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Booking advisory snows. Like 2-5” in CT. 

I think this is a great call. My thinking is, if we expect this, but we get more, then they'll be much more excitement. More excitement. But if you're thinking  " oh no we're going to get 6"-12 "  and only get 2"-5". Five then you're going to feel disappointed. 

This will also be a great way to know in the end who really did have a clue. If the Euro beats out the GFS, And I think I will lean more towards a euro in the future. It did great with the last one too.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Listening to a watch collaboration call right now. Will the WaWa map look like Cancun with the amount of GW or not?

probably hold off on watches until tonight

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think this is a great call. My thinking is, if we expect this, but we get more, then they'll be much more excitement. More excitement. But if you're thinking  " oh no we're going to get 6"-12 "  and only get 2"-5". Five then you're going to feel disappointed. 

This will also be a great way to know in the end who really did have a clue. If the Euro beats out the GFS, And I think I will lean more towards a euro in the future. It did great with the last one too.

Yea. Leaning towards a weighted Euro compromise, like 70/30. Really not a hard forecast for CT imo. Some spots may tickle 6-7” but majority will be below.