As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Prismshine Productions]

11 on the Kuchie, I take

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise. 

Yeah, The qpf field was the only difference i could see with both those runs.

[CoastalWx]

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours. 

It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit.

So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.

[CarverWX]

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty big?

what's the average h5 model error inside 24 hours?

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

interior going to have more than 10:! I think

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit.

So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.

bentcarrot.com

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

one inch of qpf at 15 to 1 might be close

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

maybe 1-2" here at the end if lucky

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

I'm more than satisfied with the positive snow depth change being 5 to 8 across most of the region. Even 3 to 4 in your hood.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

[dryslot]

I expect CMC to look like reggie.

[weatherwiz]

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

[Prismshine Productions]

Canadian only out to 36 but looking at H5 it looks going to be a messenger shuffle NW like what Reggie did 

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

It has the look of some posters.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

The gfs even blows here now. Whatever trend we don’t need, is what we get in this area for the past 3 years 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

IPAs are quite strong you know.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Canadian only out to 36 but looking at H5 it looks going to be a messenger shuffle NW like what Reggie did 

you shall only use the messenger name when it's a se movement 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It has the look of some posters.

I include myself in that group 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

IPAs are quite strong you know.

I would go 8-12%.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs even blows here now. Whatever trend we don’t need, is what we get in this area for the past 3 years 

seems like it flips over for you, but I'd keep expectations in check..maybe 2-4" 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

You get too hung up on qpf 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

It’s going to be moving too fast for those types of totals. I think a foot is the ceiling on this one. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

I would go 8-12%.

That's clear what Kevin had. Maybe a lolli to 14.

[dryslot]

Yup, Looks like reggie.

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be moving too fast for those types of totals. I think a foot is the ceiling on this one. 

4-8 for us in the vallley?

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

seems like it flips over for you, but I'd keep expectations in check..maybe 2-4" 

I’m not playing that game again like the storm before Xmas. Not investing and whatever crud we get at the end will be gravy 

[ineedsnow]

CMC gone wild!