As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Prismshine Productions]

11 on the Kuchie, I take

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise. 

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Yeah, The qpf field was the only difference i could see with both those runs.

[CoastalWx]

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours. 

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It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit.

So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.

[CarverWX]

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:53 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty big?

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what's the average h5 model error inside 24 hours?

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

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interior going to have more than 10:! I think

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:55 PM, ineedsnow said:

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14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:56 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's definitely not a pure slider. The Q vectors show that the band is going to try and twist a bit.

So maybe more of a banana shape (there are meds for that) than arrow straight.

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bentcarrot.com

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

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one inch of qpf at 15 to 1 might be close

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:57 PM, CarverWX said:

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

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maybe 1-2" here at the end if lucky

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

Can we ban any URL with Kuchera?

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I'm more than satisfied with the positive snow depth change being 5 to 8 across most of the region. Even 3 to 4 in your hood.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

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how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

[dryslot]

I expect CMC to look like reggie.

[weatherwiz]

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

[Prismshine Productions]

Canadian only out to 36 but looking at H5 it looks going to be a messenger shuffle NW like what Reggie did 

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:59 PM, weatherwiz said:

Just an example from northwest Connecticut but that is a quite unstable between 700-500mb. You maximize lift into the DGZ with this look at you're going to get a hefty band. I bet you would see a swath of max totals up around a foot if that verified

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It has the look of some posters.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:57 PM, CarverWX said:

This is quickly becoming a north and west of Boston storm

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The gfs even blows here now. Whatever trend we don’t need, is what we get in this area for the past 3 years 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:59 PM, JC-CT said:

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

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IPAs are quite strong you know.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:00 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

Canadian only out to 36 but looking at H5 it looks going to be a messenger shuffle NW like what Reggie did 

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you shall only use the messenger name when it's a se movement 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, dryslot said:

It has the look of some posters.

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I include myself in that group 

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

IPAs are quite strong you know.

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I would go 8-12%.

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:01 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs even blows here now. Whatever trend we don’t need, is what we get in this area for the past 3 years 

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seems like it flips over for you, but I'd keep expectations in check..maybe 2-4" 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:59 PM, JC-CT said:

how the heck do you call 14-18 from like 1 inch of qpf "paste"

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You get too hung up on qpf 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/17/2025 at 3:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

14-18” of paste from here to there. I’d sign up and call it a winter 

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It’s going to be moving too fast for those types of totals. I think a foot is the ceiling on this one. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:03 PM, dryslot said:

I would go 8-12%.

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That's clear what Kevin had. Maybe a lolli to 14.

[dryslot]

Yup, Looks like reggie.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:04 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be moving too fast for those types of totals. I think a foot is the ceiling on this one. 

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4-8 for us in the vallley?

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2025 at 4:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

seems like it flips over for you, but I'd keep expectations in check..maybe 2-4" 

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I’m not playing that game again like the storm before Xmas. Not investing and whatever crud we get at the end will be gravy 

[ineedsnow]

CMC gone wild!