As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RGEM not backing down at all early on 

[dryslot]

Reggie going to come in hot.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Reggie going to come in hot.

Lol bump NW 25 miles from 6z back its in between 00z and the 6z look, staten island to newport track

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

It is that trend which is leading me to believe the NAM is not going to be correct but like I mentioned, we have seem several events over the past few years where we saw the NAM starting to cave towards other guidance and then all of a sudden other guidance started caving in the other direction. The direction I am leaning in right now is majority receive several inches of snow...that's how I felt yesterday morning when I posted in the main thread that I think this surprises...but I want to keep an open mind right now and understand we have seen some wild shifts inside 48-72 hours in recent years. 

The NAM had a massive shift on the 12Z run for 12/20 giving warning snowfall for CT and adv level snow back to NYC...in 0-6HR range. Which was obviously wrong and didn't happen. But inside of 6 hours was something i've never seen before. I don't trust that model at any range for any storm pretty much ever. 

That said im pretty much in line with what Will said. GEM settling east and EC coming NW, a track inside the BM to ACK 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The NAM had a massive shift on the 12Z run for 12/20 giving warning snowfall for CT and adv level snow back to NYC...in 0-6HR range. Which was obviously wrong and didn't happen. But inside of 6 hours was something i've never seen before. I don't trust that model at any range for any storm pretty much ever. 

That said im pretty much in line with what Will said. GEM settling east and EC coming NW, a track inside the BM to ACK 

any time now, gem...

[dryslot]

Yikes, Reggie hugs the Maine coast

[CoastalWx]

No thanks

[Typhoon Tip]

The 12z ICON evolution offers an outstanding compromise, either because it's doing a good job, or dumb luck - either way, that solution doesn't look terrible if you throw everything into a blender and pour a cup of forecast

[Prismshine Productions]

Iconic increased totals for everybody except far SE mass

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

The 12z ICON evolution offers an outstanding compromise, either because it's doing a good job, or dumb luck - either way, that solution doesn't look terrible if you throw everything into a blender and pour a cup of forecast

Same as AIFS EURO

[Sn0waddict]

Messenger tick the RGEM east a bit please. 

[metagraphica]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think I saw dendrite talking about this shortwave energy in one of the pages I was catching up on from overnight/this morning but maybe the NAM is being a bit too aggressive with it...too much influence from convection (though convection doesn't look like a big deal). But I guess there are two ways to look a this:

1) The NAM is totally off its rocker

2) It's a feasible reality and something that shouldn't be discounted, especially at this range. 

We all know the NAM isn't the greatest synoptically, however, it's not like it's presented output here is something that is outlandish or unlikely. It basically just continues indicating there is alot of spread. I'd be nervous putting snow maps out right now, especially if on the aggressive side. 

Seeing this particular depiction by the NAM makes me think of the Messenger shuffle.

[dryslot]

Reggie really winds up the low at the surface down to 984mb.

[Damage In Tolland]

Freaking Reginald . Standing hard and firm 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

Seeing this particular depiction by the NAM makes me think of the Messenger shuffle.

Hope we continue the shuffle in the right direction!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Reggie is rain for many in eastern ma. Probably don’t want that to verify 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Some GEFS members almost as far west as Reggie but not quite 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freaking Reginald . Standing hard and firm 

Ron Geremy

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freaking Reginald . Standing hard and firm 

you do realize you don't want that verbatim solution

[ORH_wxman]

I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours. 

yeah, unless 12z is the suite we see an adjustment from the globals

[ineedsnow]

kuchie I know but FV3 is also west

[CoastalWx]

I'm on a hiatus of those verify.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some GEFS members almost as far west as Reggie but not quite 

And furthest west EPS member still tracks just east of CHH while OP RGEM tracks into interior SE MA. 

[fz583]

Can we get this to the county in Maine? I need to be sledding there last week of Jan, asking for a friend! 

[CoastalWx]

You'll be tracking me on the news for a BOLO.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm on a hiatus of those verify.

Most are if Rgem verifies 

[Prismshine Productions]

lol Reggie gives me 8 on 10:1 and 12 via Kuchie... aint no way that verifies

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm on a hiatus of those verify.

A wellness check will probably be in order.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

kuchie I know but FV3 is also west

lol