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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those were big fronto bands. They had more vigorous upper level look though. Not quite as fast flow as this one. 
 

This one kind of reminds me of that 1/29-30 event in 2018. Was a 1-3” forecast…maybe 2-4” SE areas and this quasi-stationary fronto band with good snow growth set up from like RI to SE MA and got them with a stripe of 6-9”. Big positive bust. People outside the band didn’t have a big bust…it was mostly 1-3/2-4 elsewhere but an area under that band got hit really good. Mostly fell in about 3-4 hours too. 

I think the laterally quasi-stationary bands may be my favorite. On the sliding scale of forecast difficulty they are probably tops. High risk, high reward.

I would probably rank them laterally quasi-stationary, pivot (trying to nail that pivot point is the hard part), hybrid, and then laterally translating (too uniform, we need winners and losers).

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40/70 Benchmark
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The title sure has the appeal of a Tippy thread...as long as the post itself.

The 4 Seasons
The 4 Seasons

Chill out, dickwad.

weathafella
weathafella

When I think of overrunning, I imagine a WSW-ENE boundary that if I'm lucky, I'm north of with a big gradient between truly warm air and frigid conditions.  Those setups can produce pretty big snows s

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah those were big fronto bands. They had more vigorous upper level look though. Not quite as fast flow as this one. 
 

This one kind of reminds me of that 1/29-30 event in 2018. Was a 1-3” forecast…maybe 2-4” SE areas and this quasi-stationary fronto band with good snow growth set up from like RI to SE MA and got them with a stripe of 6-9”. Big positive bust. People outside the band didn’t have a big bust…it was mostly 1-3/2-4 elsewhere but an area under that band got hit really good. Mostly fell in about 3-4 hours too. 

I remember that. I did well, but best was just south.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS coming west a bit. Some consensus perhaps for a Lgt-Mdt event.

it seems the GFS tries to deepen that second wave off of the Carolinas and move it NE...pulling the zone father off shore, the weaker that is probably the better for us it ends up

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Spanks45 said:

it seems the GFS tries to deepen that second wave off of the Carolinas and move it NE...pulling the zone father off shore, the weaker that is probably the better for us it ends up

Yeah I think it would be good to keep that weaker for sure.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let’s rip this west. 

it's not actually a terrible fit for -epo's in the canonical pattern statistics -

i think we're seeing a balance between that, and the unusually high degree of gradient/shear size and depth of this spv-long wave hybrid.  

that latter aspect is inducing higher velocities; those physically stretch the wave signature in dx coordinate..etc - which brings these waves up farther east of normal for -epo.  

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does. It never goes super slow on guidance like you’d see in a blocky El Niño pattern but the PV lifts north some and the flow relaxes a bit as we get toward the final 7-10 days of the month. That would probably be a potential window for a larger system. 

My basic attitude is that I’m hopeful for something small or moderate between now and the 21st. And then quite hopeful actually for something significant sometime from the 23rd to the 30th. I’ll be in Philly hopefully to watch the NFC championship game on the 26th And 27th and maybe I’ll get lucky down there. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc really west

I_nw_EST_2025011512_102.thumb.png.c6570f71b74e42626096f34c1a79d1c5.png

So, with this so far west, and the GFS East, is it safe to say we should go for an in-between? I think the Euro might have been more in the middle, but I guess we'll have confirmation around 1:00 where that is today. I don't know why everything seems so tough to get an idea of what's going to happen. Feels like we have to get around top of the event to know. Nothing's been easy the last several Winters

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