As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wonder if the lower resolution gives the appearance of greater consistency. OP euro hasn't changed much aloft either, relatively speaking, but has jumped around a bit with slp placement and qpf

Probably has a lot to do with it. But the Canadian suite hasn’t jumped around much either .. just no A1

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably has a lot to do with it. But the Canadian suite hasn’t jumped around much either .. just no A1

Maybe it's just me, but my memory is (either correctly or incorrectly) telling me that the Canadian has had lots of ec cyclo events that it was consistently on its own island for and fell flat on its face. More often than the occasional coop, even.

[CoastalWx]

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

[CoastalWx]

GRAF works 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

Married w kids life can be tough, but you gotta find time for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

The meat?

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GRAF works 

This is...what?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

This is...what?

Internal TWC model. It’s decent. Replaces the old RPM.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Married w kids life can be tough, but you gotta find time for you.

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The meat?

I opened myself up to that. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Internal TWC model. It’s decent. Replaces the old RPM.

I thought it was retired.  Neat, but looks overdone if I'm reading the pretty colors right

[JC-CT]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I thought it was retired.  Neat, but looks overdone if I'm reading the pretty colors right

Very rpm like indeed

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I opened myself up to that. 

He who rubs the lotion gets the hose again?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This is...what?

The giraffe, Cant you read?

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GRAF works 

Initiate pants tent.

[Typhoon Tip]

We've seen some pretty fantastic accumulation rates in smaller periods of time over the years.  I'm not worried about the 6-9 hr window of this event, necessarily - but ... there should be a limit to this system's intensity based upon the fact that a lot of the mechanics are so tightly couched in a highly compressed field.  This is a bit of a neg offset to vitals, like diffluence ... DPVA ...etc mechanics, which in general would foster better UVM and ultimately the wholesale event strength.

I almost wonder if the Euro cluster is seeing that limitation.  By doing so, it would limit the sfc cyclonic genesis field and there you go... a slightly weaker/flatter appeal. 

I just wanna caution that the EPS was a better performer of the event last week, which the American models spent a couple day's worth of cycles with deep scary bombs along the New England coast.   EPS never really wavered...  it proved ultimately wrong, because it did snow, and 2-5" was a better performance than it had ... but weighting error, it was much closer to reality than those gaudy GFS monster solutions.   

As an aside  ...there is a mantra that 'past performance doesn't dictate future results'  yeeeah.   I personally feel that is a shield folks use to fend off solutions, in hand, that are less than d-drippy.  In reality, if/when we are in the same essential pattern circumstance, which we are, there certainly is some value in how well a given guidance has been performing relative to that period time span.  

It'll be interesting to see where we are this evening, in guidance with this thing ...as we will be < 72 hours - a time when models tend to stop trying to wonder off consensus more (typically). 

[Kitz Craver]

Some of these runs start us at 1-2pm Sunday so we’re getting close if we believe that outcome 

[The 4 Seasons]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

thats insane. i was just looking at the big storm on Feb 13th 2024 and your area barely got 3-4" and the same with previous Jan storm. So you must have been at what like 13" for the season ish?

[cut]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

3 years!! I think the last one here in SWCT was 2018!!!! (I could be wrong as I am just on my second coffee!!)

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We've seen some pretty fantastic accumulation rates in smaller periods of time over the years.  I'm not worried about the 6-9 hr window of this event, necessarily - but ... there should be a limit to this system's intensity based upon the fact that a lot of the mechanics are so tightly couched in a highly compressed field.  This is a bit of a neg offset to vitals, like diffluence ... DPVA ...etc mechanics, which in general would foster better UVM and ultimately the wholesale event strength.

I almost wonder if the Euro cluster is seeing that limitation.  By doing so, it would limit the sfc cyclonic genesis field and there you go... a slightly weaker/flatter appeal. 

I just wanna caution that the EPS was a better performer of the event last week, which the American models spent a couple day's worth of cycles with deep scary bombs along the New England coast.   EPS never really wavered...  it proved ultimately wrong, because it did snow, and 2-5" was a better performance than it had ... but weighting error, it was much closer to reality than those gaudy GFS monster solutions.   

As an aside  ...there is a mantra that 'past performance doesn't dictate future results'  yeeeah.   I personally feel that is a shield folks use to fend off solutions, in hand, that are less than d-drippy.  In reality, if/when we are in the same essential pattern circumstance, which we are, there certainly is some value in how well a given guidance has been performing relative to that period time span.  

It'll be interesting to see where we are this evening, in guidance with this thing ...as we will be < 72 hours - a time when models tend to stop trying to wonder off consensus more (typically). 

Completely agree...some of these warning solutions are likely to trim back a bit this weekend. I'm sure this will confuse the usual suspect, but it is what it is.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GRAF works 

That's the model my local cable news leverages.

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I thought it was retired.  Neat, but looks overdone if I'm reading the pretty colors right

You’re thinking of steffi

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it will be in the 40s tomorrow, but will drop Sunday. Maybe it takes a bit to stick on roads,  but I wouldn’t worry. I just want to beat 4”. It’s approaching 3 years for that. 

The last thing the vast majority of the forum needs to be worried about is surface temps.  Any marginal surface temps at onset will vaporize quickly... mid-January during a long running cold pattern with solidly cold / frozen ground surfaces losing much to melting at onset is not an issue.

[DJln491]

2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

Bob Maxon just said, “I’m tempted to say 4-6”… at least…”

Bob wants to party.  been a while

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, cut said:

3 years!! I think the last one here in SWCT was 2018!!!! (I could be wrong as I am just on my second coffee!!)

We beat 4 inches in January 2022. I think we also had over 4 inches 2 years ago in 2023. 

Of course in 2021 we had one to two feet in one storm.

[ineedsnow]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Internal TWC model. It’s decent. Replaces the old RPM.

where do you even find that? I need more maps to post 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

We beat 4 inches in January 2022. I think we also had over 4 inches 2 years ago in 2023. 

Of course in 2021 we had one to two feet in one storm.

Feb 13 2024, 7-14" in all of Fairfield county, most North

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree...some of these warning solutions are likely to trim back a bit this weekend. I'm sure this will confuse the usual suspect, but it is what it is.

Yea.
 

Once the weenie has popped out and takes over, there’s no turning back. The weenie’s out of the bottle at that point…

[moneypitmike]

Maine needs some Canadian juju.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 13 2024, 7-14" in all of Fairfield county, most North

My favorite storm from the past few years, might actually be the only 'storm' in the past few years

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree...some of these warning solutions are likely to trim back a bit this weekend. I'm sure this will confuse the usual suspect, but it is what it is.

Your map and final call with be upped. I can guarantee it