As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI looks wetter. Can't answer about temps. Start with this 6 hour panel.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200

Looks like the GFS

 

[CoastalWx]

Nam looks meh

[ineedsnow]

lol 0z NAM still lost

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the GFS

 

 

[RDRY]

NAM be like "there's a storm?"

[dendrite]

NAM is still flat and strung out with its vorticity…just no punch coming in from the upper levels. H5 across NAMER just looks spuriously different from the other models though. We’ll see what the rest of the 00z suite does, but I think it’s still in the synoptically challenged camp.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, RDRY said:

NAM be like "there's a storm?"

So.. what do we make of the NAM? Not sure anyone else is on the same island. I'm guessing it will start to come around maybe tomorrow afternoon? I'm hoping. Even with so much model support that this storm is coming, there's always that feeling of the Rug about to be pulled from under your feet. But.. more of better trends than not.

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So.. what do we make of the NAM? Not sure anyone else is on the same island. I'm guessing it will start to come around maybe tomorrow afternoon? I'm hoping. Even with so much model support that this storm is coming, there's always that feeling of the Rug about to be pulled from under your feet. But.. more of better trends than not.

I'm not knowledge enough to make anything of the NAM. Then again, who is?

[dryslot]

If the Nam doesn't sniff it, Its not happening, Sorry.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

I'm not knowledge enough to make anything of the NAM. Then again, who is?

The NAM is generally not useful until inside of 48 hours and sometimes not useful at all. It will probably have a Ron Washington 12-18" run at 18z tomorrow.

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

 It will probably have a Ron Washington 12-18" run at 18z tomorrow.

Exactly lol. We just mentioned that here

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this

Time for it to actually be retired like they've talked about for several years?

[Spanks45]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this

Maybe certain people are tweaking the inputs, making it worse than it already is, so they can say it sucks, let's just get rid of it. Wasn't there talk years back about getting rid of the Nam?

[dendrite]

Nammy has a little northern shit streak out ahead of the system that is knocking down heights and not enabling the shortwave and downstream ridging to amplify. The RGEM is obviously the other extreme with a more potent punch of dPVA swinging through to help initiate sfc pressure falls.

[ariof]

It would be very 2025 for the NAM to score a coup over all the other guidance for the first time in the direction of "not a storm" rather than its usual excitement over storms that fizzle/miss.

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

0Z RGEM’s close to bombogen deepening rates 

unfortunately it’s an overall warmer solution though 

[weathafella]

Reggie brings a 988 over Boston 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This thing is going to be raining to Maine soon...compromise would be nice right now

[dryslot]

So do we toss the reggie now? Asking for some friends.

[dendrite]

Similar gif to what I posted earlier except this is the 00z rgem. Look at that potent curl to that vortmax rounding the base of the trough while the nam is flat and flaccid.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So do we toss the reggie now? Asking for some friends.

No.. but wouldn't be we say this is the farthest west solution..... Then, if we take the farthest east solution model ( not including the NAM )... It should be a decent hit.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

No.. but wouldn't be we say this is the farthest west solution..... Then, if we take the farthest east solution model ( not including the NAM )... It should be a decent hit.

GGEM will look just like it too, More amped solutions will be west, Weaker will be east, I'd rather a stronger low then weaker low, Some pay either way.

[Allsnow]

Icon with a stronger TPV press. Looks like the 18z euro 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man is that haulin’ ass in this ICON run

moves some 350 mi between 72 and 78 hrs.  basically 60 mph cyclone translation speed 

- gee wonder why the models have been having issues with structure and placement 

[Sn0waddict]

NAM still with no storm, RGEM still way more amped than any other model, and the icon still further east similar to the EURO. So when does this consensus start happening? Lol

[brooklynwx99]

RGEM moves W and ICON moves E. what a time to be alive

the RGEM does seem like a far W outlier. it's like 25-50 miles W of the farthest W EPS member

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM moves W and ICON moves E. what a time to be alive

the RGEM does seem like a far W outlier. it's like 25-50 miles W of the farthest W EPS member

Ignored.

[ariof]

Meme me up, Scotty.