As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dryslot]

06z ECMWF Operational Delayed

Incident Report for Commodity Weather Group

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Investigating

Due to dissemination issues at the ECMWF, products for the 06z ECMWF Operational model are delayed.

We will update when dissemination resumes and/or more information is provided by the ECMWF.

Posted 6 minutes ago. Jan 15, 2025 - 07:00 EST

[mitchnick]

Pivotal moving again

[dryslot]

Now out to hr 84

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6z Euro a bit SE of 00z, Here's the 00z eps odds of 3"+ and low placements.. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

1-2.  Meh.  What could bring this closer?  Aren’t storms on article fronts fraud 5?

[ineedsnow]

6z ICON lost it

[ORH_wxman]

Nice little zone of ML fronto on 06z euro. Would be good for some eastern peeps. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z ICON lost it

Don’t love seeing another model follow the GFS East…

[dryslot]

Congrats EMATT.

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s coming SNE. All the way back to NY state 

[NorEastermass128]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats EMATT.

We need to get Maine involved. You guys have been skunked big time these past few seasons too (relative to average). 

[Snowcrazed71]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming SNE. All the way back to NY state 

Careful..... Today's runs. Don't support your theory.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Careful..... Today's runs. Don't support your theory.

They certainly do . Euro , Canadian, Ukie , EPS etc

[Typhoon Tip]

you know i mentioned this yesterday ...say it again,  we're gonna need to get this < 72 hours.

even if there is a consensus there at 108 hours ( say), and it's either all in, or all out at that time, it will still be the case where another ~ 36 hours is required.   the models have to be precise to a degree they are not intrinsically capable of being in time ranges much beyond that, given to the highly compressed character of the flow. this latter aspect is shortening the confidence timing a bit

this mad compression ordeal is making for the presence or non-presence on the charts sensitive to very discrete perturbations that are below the resolution of the model.

that should give this thread some life for the next 2 days ... lol

 

[dryslot]

50 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We need to get Maine involved. You guys have been skunked big time these past few seasons too (relative to average). 

I don't care for my BY if we get any, NW Maine conditions are good, Northern Maine needs some help though, I want to make a county trip in Feb.

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't care for my BY if we get any, NW Maine conditions are good, Northern Maine needs some help though, I want to make a county trip in Feb.

Yes, my friends up there say there isn't a lot of snow otg.

[kdxken]

50 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't care for my BY if we get any, NW Maine conditions are good, Northern Maine needs some help though, I want to make a county trip in Feb.

Nephew is loading up his sleds and heading to lawville New York. Going to hit the lake snows.

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON back to 1 to 4

[ORH_wxman]

ICON has a nice banding look for SE MA. Hopefully we juice this one up a little more and turn it into a higher end advisory event with maybe some low end warning lollis…it’s possible in these ML magic looks. The worry is making sure the vort doesn’t get ground up too quickly by the compressed flow. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON has a nice banding look for SE MA. Hopefully we juice this one up a little more and turn it into a higher end advisory event with maybe some low end warning lollis…it’s possible in these ML magic looks. The worry is making sure the vort doesn’t get ground up too quickly by the compressed flow. 

These things have the look at one of those SW-NE oriented fronto bands. Just a matter of whether it's over the region, or offshore.

[mahk_webstah]

Will the flow eventually slow?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These things have the look at one of those SW-NE oriented fronto bands. Just a matter of whether it's over the region, or offshore.

Yeah and they can become quasi-stationary since they typically align parallel to the upper level flow too. So sometimes you’ll get a surprise somewhere that gets stuck under one of those bands. Hopefully not offshore in this one. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Will the flow eventually slow?

Yeah it does. It never goes super slow on guidance like you’d see in a blocky El Niño pattern but the PV lifts north some and the flow relaxes a bit as we get toward the final 7-10 days of the month. That would probably be a potential window for a larger system. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This reminds me of one a year or two ago that initially looked like this 2-4/3-6”.. and that morning a big band sat right over parts of the region. I think Wolf and Southbury over to Ginx had like 8-14” inches. Maybe two winters ago ?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me of one a year or two ago that initially looked like this 2-4/3-6”.. and that morning a big band sat right over parts of the region. I think Wolf and Southbury over to Ginx had like 8-14” inches. Maybe two winters ago ?

We had a couple. The SB event in 2021 and then again in January of 2022. 

[Prismshine Productions]

slightly taller heights over the northeast on the GFS so far, out to 63

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We had a couple. The SB event in 2021 and then again in January of 2022. 

Yeah those were big fronto bands. They had more vigorous upper level look though. Not quite as fast flow as this one. 
 

This one kind of reminds me of that 1/29-30 event in 2018. Was a 1-3” forecast…maybe 2-4” SE areas and this quasi-stationary fronto band with good snow growth set up from like RI to SE MA and got them with a stripe of 6-9”. Big positive bust. People outside the band didn’t have a big bust…it was mostly 1-3/2-4 elsewhere but an area under that band got hit really good. Mostly fell in about 3-4 hours too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a couple. The SB event in 2021 and then again in January of 2022. 

Yeah I think I’m remembering the one in Jan of 22. Not that it’ll happen, but it seems like a similar kind of setup 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does. It never goes super slow on guidance like you’d see in a blocky El Niño pattern but the PV lifts north some and the flow relaxes a bit as we get toward the final 7-10 days of the month. That would probably be a potential window for a larger system. 

bingo..

it's why the 24th probably has a better profile for something, relative to 'extended outlook' performance in general.

you can actually see it in the operational versions, all three ggem/euro/gfs, from 00z and 06z. the big buzz saw look,while not totally gone, relaxes.  this allows that trailing mechanics to then run up the flow encountering less compression/negative interference.  

the particulars of those solutions are less important than recognizing these larger constraints ( for me ..) but there is even some vague support in the ens means that is frankly better at this range than this one ever was that is the purpose of this thread  (   not saying this thread will not prove worth it - just the way the indicators presently align )

[Bryan63]

Would happily take a 2-4" event at this point, would at minimum double my season so far.