As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

People use the icon, let that sink in

 

30 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

NAM really likes that first wave, more euro like than gfs like

And they use the nam…

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

And they use the nam…

Yes, I use the NAM within 48 hours

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if the NAM is kind of chasing convection a bit there. But whatever...84 hr NAM. 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think Canadian is on the right track . It’s been like that for days 

You and your pal.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, kdxken said:

You and your pal.

Most reliable when interacting with arctic air…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yes, I use the NAM within 48 hours

Nice to see you back. Hope all is well. 

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice to see you back. Hope all is well. 

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think Canadian is on the right track . It’s been like that for days 

I’d want to see more support. It def seems to have had the right idea directionally but it might be too amped verbatim. It further west than almost all the GEFS and EPS members…but not all, we we track to see if it wants to tick further west. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jeez I’m so gun shy after last February. 
 

but this looks pretty solid for a nice little even for many on here. 

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Most reliable when interacting with arctic air…

I know, this guy is a piece of work. Kind of like the other guy. DW. He posts the most insane videos on YouTube, talking about monster storms and major blizzards and Arctic blasts ..... most the time it doesn't even come close to anything like that.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Jeez I’m so gun shy after last February. 
 

but this looks pretty solid for a nice little even for many on here. 

I agree mate.

[MJO812]

Icon and rgem west

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RGEM a good bump west.. rain for a lot of us .. Rain to heavy snow west of 91.. 

[dendrite]

Haymaker!

[Damage In Tolland]

Reggie !

[SouthCoastMA]

Reggie was disgusting for ESNE. Still the far west outlier

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reggie was disgusting for ESNE. Still the far west outlier

I kind of like seeing some JV models this amped because of the euro suite being pretty far southeast. Makes me think a compromise is coming at some point. 

[FXWX]

I know folks love looking at and posting about any model than can get their hands on, but I'm surprised by the amount of posts about the Reggie, the ICON, and yes even the global Canadian!  Reggie will every once in a great while hit an event, but it is far from a consistently correct model.  Decision makers never sit there and say, I can't wait to see the Reggie, ICON or the Canadian before I lock in my final forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Reggie was disgusting for ESNE. Still the far west outlier

I wouldn't worry about that.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, FXWX said:

I know folks love looking at and posting about any model than can get their hands on, but I'm surprised by the amount of posts about the Reggie, the ICON, and yes even the global Canadian!  Reggie will every once in a great while hit an event, but it is far from a consistently correct model.  Decision makers never sit there and say, I can't wait to see the Reggie, ICON or the Canadian before I lock in my final forecast.

My guess is they would not be viewed as much if they weren’t coming out early in the cycle. If they were late like the JMA or NAVGEM, they’d be relegated to similar status. Canadian might be a little more useful but not by a lot. 

[JC-CT]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is they would not be viewed as much if they weren’t coming out early in the cycle. If they were late like the JMA or NAVGEM, they’d be relegated to similar status. Canadian might be a little more useful but not by a lot. 

JMA was a nice hit

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS looks awesome 

[Damage In Tolland]

Reggie is a damn good meso. Much better than the NAM. I would not toss it 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Reggie is a damn good meso. Much better than the NAM. I would not toss it 

It's in the long range

[CoastalWx]

GFS is great for all. Let’s lock that.

[kdxken]

GenCast has 3-5 for Sunday / Monday versus 1-3 yesterday.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d want to see more support. It def seems to have had the right idea directionally but it might be too amped verbatim. It further west than almost all the GEFS and EPS members…but not all, we we track to see if it wants to tick further west. 

3 and 4 days ago the GGEM solutions looked remarkably similar to the total mean as it stands right now, when the other guidance were pancaked.   This is a mid range coup at this point ...unless we get Charlie Browned ...  

It could be a tick NW of the reality as of the day's runs, but in principle ...this is kinda its storm

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

3 and 4 days ago the GGEM solutions looked remarkably similar to the total mean as it stands right now, when the other guidance were pancaked.   This is a mid range coup at this point ...unless we get Charlie Browned ...  

It could be a tick NW of the reality as of the day's runs, but in principle ...this is kinda its storm

Yeah agreed. That’s what I meant when I said it was “directionally correct” but may be a little too west verbatim now. But if we still get the final solution to be anything lien the GFS or heck, even more of a weaker advisory event like the euro, it’s still a win for the GGEM in the D5/6 range. It does score coups now and then. 
 

@40/70 Benchmark will never forget December 2022 coup it scored when our east coast blizzard turned into the apocalypse for Buffalo while we enjoyed another grinch rainstorm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not exactly shocked we are at this state that we are with this thing.   I mentioned to Jerry when he started this thread the other night that in this situation ... it was a good thread.  I know, because truth be told ..i was about to launch myself lol.  Anyway, the higher resolution operational guidance versions were probably going to pick up on this idea prior to the coarser resolved ensemble members, definitely their normalized mean there after.   It was unlikely, given that this system emerges or disappears inside of decimal variances ( due to all the compression ), that the ensemble mean would altogether be very useful in the medium range.   I thought at the time that < 72 hours ...but 96 ..same idea in principle.   

Should we get Charlie Browned at this point it's may be fair to consider it a failure at a systemic level with the tech.    Upper light to lower moderate event.   May cap a little higher than that.  In fact, details like CF over eastern shore points and even some straight up OES banding undercutting the mid level goodies ...there's ways to cheat us up a tad.