As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[SouthCoastMA]

A lot of education needed this week; Skynet, muthafukkas, etc

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What the hell are you guys talking about? 

Beers today 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is this basically a bunch of simulations based on the relationship between GFS forecast data and observations?

It's a statistical product so it's using historical data to make a better prediction for a specific location. 

[weatherwiz]

wth...using MOS numbers for snowfall? I didn't realize anyone still did that. MOS is a piece of trash, unfortunately there is nothing else to use for quickly forecasting temperatures.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, BRSno said:

That's a long answer, technically. I'm from Brazil but lived in Boston (Eastie) most of my life. I moved down to FLL where my parents live in 2019 to help them out as they age.

It's been absolute torture not having winters.

Welcome back enjoy 

[Snowcrazed71]

Out to 42 .... Not sure what to make of the Nam ( but it's still probably outside its wheelhouse anyway ), so it may not matter at this point.  Was trying to see if it looked better than before at this juncture.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

wth...using MOS numbers for snowfall? I didn't realize anyone still did that. MOS is a piece of trash, unfortunately there is nothing else to use for quickly forecasting temperatures.

People use the icon, let that sink in

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

wth...using MOS numbers for snowfall? I didn't realize anyone still did that. MOS is a piece of trash, unfortunately there is nothing else to use for quickly forecasting temperatures.

It’s just for fun.    Although sometimes they have a clue wrt trends.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

People use the icon, let that sink in

And the CMC, Let is sink further.

[JC-CT]

NAM really likes that first wave, more euro like than gfs like

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s just for fun.    Although sometimes they have a clue wrt trends.  

I just really hate MOS

When I used to participate in the forecast challenge, if you basically ripped and read MOS for temps/wind you would get destroyed. Unfortunately, I still use MOS/NBM a ton because there is no other choice but it is cringeworthy how bad it really is and can be. I know feasibly forecasting specifics like temp/sky cover/wind takes an in-depth dive but if you don't have that capability to really do that...ugly ugly 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

NAM really likes that first wave, more euro like than gfs like

I would assume based on that look, it still won't have much, if anything on Sunday night....

[mreaves]

a 4 surrounded by 1s.  Just like my early dating history 

[weatherwiz]

Assuming this stays on course, the NAM should probably start becoming more beneficial 12z or 18z Saturday when really starting to diagnose banding potential and those specifics. 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Assuming this stays on course, the NAM should probably start becoming more beneficial 12z or 18z Saturday when really starting to diagnose banding potential and those specifics. 

If this system is real, the Nam will go from nothing to probably over amped once it "sees" the storm....maybe between 48 and 72 hours

[JC-CT]

I don't love how it blows up the low in the southeast tbh

[MJO812]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I don't love how it blows up the low in the southeast tbh

Who cares what the Nam says ?

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Who cares what the Nam says ?

I care because the Euro also did it

[Spanks45]

Well, the nam actually does see a storm....at least a start

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I care because the Euro also did it

Well now the Nam is popping a low. Give it time . 

Euro was an outlier to the eps

[MJO812]

Better

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Better

I agree, and even if you look at what it shows for the Saturday wave. Shows that East where everyone else has some light rain getting into the whole area. The fact that this is coming West more is just a sign that it's adjusting itself accordingly. If the storm were tomorrow or even the day after, I'd be a bit more concerned if it showed this, but the fact that it's slowly coreecting itself is a good sign.

[ORH_wxman]

At least the NAM has a storm at all now. My guess is guidance like the Canadian is too far west and NAM-esque solutions too far east. 
 

 

[weatherwiz]

Some notable differences aloft on NAM versus GFS/Euro (I know shocker, right). 

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I just really hate MOS

When I used to participate in the forecast challenge, if you basically ripped and read MOS for temps/wind you would get destroyed. Unfortunately, I still use MOS/NBM a ton because there is no other choice but it is cringeworthy how bad it really is and can be. I know feasibly forecasting specifics like temp/sky cover/wind takes an in-depth dive but if you don't have that capability to really do that...ugly ugly 

Idk…MOS has historically been pretty good. But yeah, if you want to win wxchallenge you need to know when to deviate. But if you’re trying to stray from MOS all the time…good luck…

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the NAM has a storm at all now. My guess is guidance like the Canadian is too far west and NAM-esque solutions too far east. 
 

 

Looks like yesterday's Gfs

[JC-CT]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well now the Nam is popping a low. Give it time . 

Euro was an outlier to the eps

The EPS was like 0.20 qpf for most of the region

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the NAM has a storm at all now. My guess is guidance like the Canadian is too far west and NAM-esque solutions too far east. 
 

 

I think Canadian is on the right track . It’s been like that for days 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

Idk…MOS has historically been pretty good. But yeah, if you want to win wxchallenge you need to know when to deviate. But if you’re trying to stray from MOS all the time…good luck…

I think it also depends on region...some areas it can be brutal in. Obviously it isn't going to handle anomalous patterns well but you're right...you have to know when to deviate from it. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think Canadian is on the right track . It’s been like that for days