As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But kind of awesome to get that low vis heavy snow and 8-11" out of it region wide. Good base snow. 

Oh for sure. It's what saved the white Xmas that year (at least where I was) when we had the 12/24 grinch cutter. The snow from 12/13, 12/16, and 12/20 all had a combined 2-3" of QPF in it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

If you want to be a real weenie you could go 11:1, that's climo. 

His climo for the past 3 years is like 4 to 1 transparent slush

[BRSno]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where are you from?

That's a long answer, technically. I'm from Brazil but lived in Boston (Eastie) most of my life. I moved down to FLL where my parents live in 2019 to help them out as they age.

It's been absolute torture not having winters.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His climo for the past 3 years is like 4 to 1 transparent slush

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His climo for the past 3 years is like 4 to 1 transparent slush

It's been inches of dendrites 500' up and 3:1 by the time they hit the ground. 

[SJonesWX]

59 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol... And how do you come up with that outcome? Yes, they both show the best solutions with The most snowfall for the region, and they may be right in the end.... But as some have already mentioned, there's a fast flow, the Euro definitely is on the east side of the model runs. I guess we can say they're in the middle of everything? I'm just leery to say that they have the best handle on what's going on. Love to get your reason why you feel they have the best handle on what's going to happen.

he saw it on the app formerly known as twitter

[mitchnick]

12z AI looks like 6z run with qpf.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z AI looks like 6z run with qpf.

This 6hr map and the next 2 if interested. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161200&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000

[dryslot]

Motherfukkas!!

[Sn0waddict]

NAM rolling..just curious to see if it even has a storm this time around. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

NAM rolling..just curious to see if it even has a storm this time around. 

Comparing the 12z nam to the rgem was pretty hilarious. Nam doesn't even have a clue, esp at clown range

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Motherfukkas!!

Muthufukkas dropped to 4.  Fukkin muthufukkas!

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Motherfukkas!!

I think it is only 4" at KBOS

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, weathafella said:

Muthufukkas dropped to 4.  Fukkin muthufukkas!

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Muthufukkas dropped to 4.  Fukkin muthufukkas!

lol, I went to 8.

[HoarfrostHubb]

But KFIT has 8! (2+6)

 

As does KORH

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think it is only 4" at KBOS

We flipped places actually, I went from 4 to 8.

[dryslot]

Actually, 1+8.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

We flipped places actually, I went from 4 to 8.

If you include the day before you get a 1+8  

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Actually, 1+8.

I keep getting ninja'd

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We flipped places actually, I went from 4 to 8.

I think at least st Logan it may be counting on some slop for a time.  OWD 4, LWM 6.

[Henry's Weather]

What the hell are you guys talking about? 

[weathafella]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

What the hell are you guys talking about? 

We’re talking muthufukkas muthufukka!

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, weathafella said:

We’re talking muthufukkas muthufukka!

SREF?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think at least st Logan it may be counting on some slop for a time.  OWD 4, LWM 6.

That would make sense if the track is further NW.

[dryslot]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

SREF?

No MOS.

[CoastalWx]

MOS guidance for snowfall from the GFS. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

SREF?

MOS #s

[dryslot]

Your welcome.

https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull

[Henry's Weather]

Is this basically a bunch of simulations based on the relationship between GFS forecast data and observations?