As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Exactly. 

And with that, I think there is room to see this trend a bit stronger as we get closer and I would lean towards that happening. These trends I think are models catching up to the full potential. The 850/700/500 looks are very good here. 

I'm on the fence with that aspect ( bold ) ...

There's a lower ceiling to this because the total diffluence aloft is being offset by the fact that the s/w space is entering a region that is already moving so fast.  ↓ diffluence limits q-g (quai geostrophic) forcing and that ↓ UVM potential  

...that outta ache up some heads... lol ...   anyway, I don't think we can get carried away with this one

[The 4 Seasons]

Safe to say the GEFS is by far the best run yet. A very obvious trend NW each run. Yesterday it had almost 0 members giving SNE any QPF, its not like there was even a spread. 

As far as i know the GEM was the only model really amped yesterday.

Edit: to add the 500mb trend on the GEFS. 

 

[OceanStWx]

The good news is that as modeled this isn't really one of those narrow laterally quasi-stationary bands. Those have the jet streak on the poleward side of the low track, with the right entrance region driving lift. This jet streak is modeled along and south of the low track, with the left exit driving lift. 

It looks more like a weak pivot or hybrid to me. So that should mean at least a decent precip shield to keep the threat alive.

[SouthCoastMA]

36 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think many of us want something close to the Canadian.  This is a perfect situation for Messenger ticks.  And it it pays out the way it is trending then mucho kudos to Scholz and Trudeau.

Ya im probably one of the few who doesn't. I'd rather have a messenger tick of the GFS run

[Henry's Weather]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Safe to say the GEFS is by far the best run yet. A very obvious trend NW each run. Yesterday it had almost 0 members giving SNE any QPF, its not like there was even a spread. 

As far as i know the GEM was the only model really amped yesterday.

 

A clear and damning trend

[dryslot]

That's a siggy shift on the GEFS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It can stop its NW trend soon please...

[dryslot]

I know i would spook some here if i start honking on this one.........lol, But a little sharper trough or a stronger SLP wouldn't hurt further north.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

I know i would spook some here if i start honking on this one.........lol, But a little sharper trough or a stronger SLP wouldn't hurt further north.

lol news 9 just said we need to watch it to see if some light snow showers make it in Sunday night 

Do they even look at models beforehand

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Cue Jim Cantore. Is he still a thing? Can't remember the last time I watched TWC

Last I saw him was at an nws presentation down in canton, ma a year and a half ago.   He was well...  bald, but doing well.    - his words.   He was like, 'yeah, back in the day when i had as much hair as you'

I remember him on air in like ...1986. 

 

[ineedsnow]

Euro looks a little east.. might be a bit meh

[dryslot]

East goal post.

[CoastalWx]

Still decent over most of the region and well NW of 00z. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro looks a little east.. might be a bit meh

Still better than 0z (I assume you are comparing to 6z)   Workable

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

East goal post.

that storm in front messed everything up for Sunday night

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still decent over most of the region and well NW of 00z. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still decent over most of the region and well NW of 00z. 

but east of 6z

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even Canadian is close for you....so anything SE of that is good. But it def has the QPF too

 

Canuck/GFS blend works for me.  But hey, has the Canadian ever scored a coup before?

[ineedsnow]

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The good news is that as modeled this isn't really one of those narrow laterally quasi-stationary bands. Those have the jet streak on the poleward side of the low track, with the right entrance region driving lift. This jet streak is modeled along and south of the low track, with the left exit driving lift. 

It looks more like a weak pivot or hybrid to me. So that should mean at least a decent precip shield to keep the threat alive.

Right, re the LE quadrant and initiating and so forth.    I'm bummed we don't see more u/a diffluent geometry with acceleration region over central NE... while that 500 mb jet is punching underneath

That's when you get the meso bands with lightning

[dryslot]

Its garbage.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its garbage.

This year beggars can't be choosers

[weathafella]

What is with the propensity to only post kuchera snow maps vs 10:1?  What number is that in the weenie playbook?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This year beggars can't be choosers

I'd rather be where you are.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It can stop its NW trend soon please...

You have nothing to worry about but it would be nice to see everybody from the canal to the Berkshires get some snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You have nothing to worry about but it would be nice to see everybody from the canal to the Berkshires get some snow.

It probably won't make a huge jump, but too far NW would suck for those SE

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What is with the propensity to only post kuchera snow maps vs 10:1?  What number is that in the weenie playbook?

1

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What is with the propensity to only post kuchera snow maps vs 10:1?  What number is that in the weenie playbook?

I know. Just stick with 10:1.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What is with the propensity to only post kuchera snow maps vs 10:1?  What number is that in the weenie playbook?

Post whatever shows the higher amounts…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro falls in line with the fast flow anal boundry and thus more reasonable. A flacid but taken low end advisory.