As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Spanks45]

Canadian looks good too, definitely looks like the western goalpost, for now at least

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

of course, but you can definitely see the banding signal on the sim radar so I'd imagine 700 fronto is right over the region

yeah I was able to see that with Scott's suggestion of clicking radar (rain/frozen) versus MSLP + radar. 

[JC-CT]

all downhill from here

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is amped. Hopefully that is the western goalpost. Many would love the gfs.

[MJO812]

Just now, JC-CT said:

all downhill from here

You are such a peach

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe brief mix to start here, but we would take that.

Que Brett talking about how he will get screwed.

[dryslot]

I like the CMC but then i again i remember i don't like it.

[weatherwiz]

Very nice (this is in northeast CT ish). I'm looking at national map so not zoomed in. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is amped. Hopefully that is the western goalpost. Many would love the gfs.

Even Canadian is close for you....so anything SE of that is good. But it def has the QPF too

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Even Canadian is close for you....so anything SE of that is good. But it def has the QPF too

 

Canadian is slower to advect the cold in it seems too. But yeah agree.

[Prismshine Productions]

[DJln491]

now we worry about western ticks.  not the parasite, the model movement.

[Prismshine Productions]

[George001]

The low location is 200+ miles NW of where it was being modeled 2 days ago on the GFS. Fast flow patterns are really tough on the models.

[CoastalWx]

GFS would be a nice region wide event. Probably a great band signal near NYC-LWM or so either side of that, and decent QPF to the SE. 

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks like it's stuck at 60h

Recalculating...

[weatherwiz]

Have to see what bufkit shows around noon but ratios could be extremely good. I would have to think, at least under the banding, we could push anywhere from 15:1 to 20:1. Talking about highest ratios here...obviously will differ probably towards the coast. 

[Typhoon Tip]

someone here may hear thunder

[UnitedWx]

Nice to see these trends, and hoping it holds. And, who on this end in the last couple days recommended not looking out to hour 384 so often and look for something to pop in the shorter term... maybe the gut will be right

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

someone here may hear thunder

Cue Jim Cantore. Is he still a thing? Can't remember the last time I watched TWC

[mahk_webstah]

I think many of us want something close to the Canadian.  This is a perfect situation for Messenger ticks.  And it it pays out the way it is trending then mucho kudos to Scholz and Trudeau.

[FXWX]

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

Hopefully unless the surface low trends 100 miles east or west in the next 12 hours like it just did lol .. still have 72-84 hours 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, FXWX said:

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

Exactly. 

And with that, I think there is room to see this trend a bit stronger as we get closer and I would lean towards that happening. These trends I think are models catching up to the full potential. The 850/700/500 looks are very good here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

agreed ...

I was commenting on the RGEM earlier - prior to this 12z cycle but still is so...  There's not much hope ( to me ) of this being a ptype issue NW of very SE zones given a 'super' blend of what's available in guidance.

Also, I thought at glance that this may be very meso banded ... it may be to some degree, but the 300 mb critical 'fan' jet doesn't actually exist in this situation in either the GFS or CMC.   The wind maxima are collocated S of the region.  I'm not sure that will supply the slant wise polarward tug aloft that is needed for better frontogenic forcing -   interesting

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty big sensible weather differences here on the gfs and Canadian. 6-8” on the gfs and very little on the Canadian 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is not quite as juiced as GFS/GGEM....prob more like high end advisory snows for a lot of SNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Fade the gfs. It was way too snow happy for the last non event. Advisory level snows has the higher probability. 

[PWMan]

I'll be in Montreal, guaranteeing flurries there and advisory snow at home. Whatever it takes I guess.

[ineedsnow]

ITS COMING!!! LFG!!!!  Awesome trend today hoping it holds!  GEFS really beefing up now..