As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dendrite]

I’ll vote skynet. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll vote skynet. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

no   sorry.

I knew folks were going to forget the CMC main operational model showing all those solutions similar to what actually took place, at d5 --> 3, when other guidance were at times not even on the map.  

RGEM is something else ...

 

[FXWX]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably depends on what metrics folks are using to to verify. But yeah....the RGEM didn't do well at all. I mean I don't even look at the model and I can't tell from seeing it being posted here lol. 

At least for me, when I think of verification, I want to see which model handled the pieces better and which model was the most consistent with how the pieces evolved. 

Stuff like SLP, QPF, snow maps...I don't really care too much about (SLP/QPF probably more so in the final 36 hours) but if you can get a strong handle on the mid/upper levels, you can get a good sense of SLP/QPF without even looking at those products. 

But like Will said, inside 72 hours the Euro really nailed it and I have to give props to the NAM...it certainly picked up on how this would evolve and I would not expect a model like the GFS to really pickup on precip shield structure. 

Yep...

[FXWX]

7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

BINGO....1000% agreed. 

This is also the approach that should be taken with the forecasting aspect. One needs to use knowledge/experience and try to gauge which model is going to handle certain elements the best and then kind of develop a blend within their head. I know NWS has ways and I think there are some pay sites where you can create model blends yourself. 

Even models that may have performed worse overall, it's quite possible they handled certain elements better than the models which performed best. 

Yes sir!  That's what I look for!