As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of weird how the NAM isn't even remotely interested in this event....Still in clown range for that model though. Showed no interest at 06z either.

i was just looking at that...

the 06z has a small quasi hybrid cored low scooting out well se, but you can see it sort of nods to another development with an ivt of sorts down around the carolinas - talking 84 hours.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is def more "Huggy" than others, but still prob snow for most of SNE except far SE....this is 925mb at 84h right before it gets in here....you actually still have weak advection from Maine at this point too

 

I hope it hits like that for paste reasons 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Ninja'd me there....Lots of REGM talk, but no Nam discussion. No surprise there....

The fact that the two are polar opposites on this storm tells me to ignore the mesos for a bit longer. We'll see what they look like by 00z tonight.

[CoastalWx]

NAM has a shit rounded vort. Not a nice V-shaped concise vort to get forcing going.

[CoastalWx]

It doesn't have to be sharp, but when you have a vort just sort of going with the flow, you aren't going to get the processes going downwind of it to generate precip.

[radarman]

you're probably right to ignore the mesos at this range, but worth noting the globals haven't exactly been inspiring confidence here either

[JC-CT]

Seems to me that there's some decent goalposts set on the ensemble guidance. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Seems to me that there's some decent goalposts set on the ensemble guidance. 

Goalposts during a blustery day in Buffalo maybe

[mitchnick]

A little late to the party, but the 6z GEM was solid.

[Hazey]

This is a good example on why you need to blend guidance. Drive yourself nuts following every model as they bobble around honing in on the eventual track. Was, and still is a solid threat. Be good timing to lay down some pack before the cold. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie gonna be amped still.

[MJO812]

Icon amped 

[Spanks45]

New RGEM looks like it will be further west, at least at 69 hrs....second storm is really intensifying offshore, getting pretty close to the cape too...

[MJO812]

Rgem

[CoastalWx]

Some slop to snow ern areas. Nice hit interior.

[Damage In Tolland]

Take take take 

[Prismshine Productions]

that might prompt some warnings along the Hogback Expressway....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

that might prompt some warnings along the Hogback Expressway....

What?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Extrapolated, that would be a nice swath of warning snows

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What?

Route 9, Bennington to Brattleboro

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cape looks wet for the start at least

[Sn0waddict]

SW CT approved

 

[weathafella]

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What?

Listen for the banjos.

[DJln491]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

should we start firing up snowblowers? 

[George001]

I like this setup, yeah you aren’t getting a huge blizzard here but this is a COLD airmass. I love the look on the 6z gfs, around a ~1000mb low near the benchmark with frigid upper levels and surface temps in the mid 20s at the height of the storm. It’s a similar setup to the storm 2 weeks before the huge blizzard in Jan 2022. 

[OceanStWx]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What?

[ORH_wxman]

Reminds me a bit of this storm....some might remember it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0302.php

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me a bit of this storm....some might remember it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0302.php

 

 

Can we get that 8 day stretch? LOL.

[JC-CT]

did the goofus crash