As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[bristolri_wx]

BOX 9:20 Discussion:

Quote

 

920 PM Update...

* 1-2" Snowfall Rates through midnight-1 AM across much of
  eastern MA and RI with lighter snow thereafter

The rain/snow line continues to collapse southeast this evening
and was along and southeast of a Fall River to Hanover line.
We should see that changeover area move across the Cape Cod
Canal through 11 pm. Even the Cape should see a brief burst of
snow after midnight.

The guidance continues to indicate very strong frontogenesis
just northwest of a backbent warm front at 850 mb. This will
result in 1-2" per hour snowfall rates across the Boston to
Providence corridor through midnight/1 am. While the heaviest of
the snow should be over by that time...another batch of lighter
snow will push through and should exit the coast between 4
and 7 am.

Temperatures will continue to tumble and be in the teens to the
lower 20s in most locations by daybreak. So even though the
accumulating snow will be over by the Mon AM commute...untreated
roads will be snow covered and slippery.

We did not make any changes to the snow accumulations. This
looks to be a 3-6"/4-8" type of deal for many locations around
and northwest I-95. Even a few slushy inches are possible around
parts of Cape Cod.

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Bryan63 said:

Changing over finally. 

Enjoy.

its difficult to see others cash in west of you while you’re drenched in rain. Enjoy the rest of your night

[FRWEATHA]

All snow now and really coming down.

[Hoth]

Big gorgeous flakes now, but already signs this thing is winding down. At least it will be cold AND white this week.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Enjoy folks in the area.

* 1-2" Snowfall Rates through midnight-1 AM across much of
  eastern MA and RI with lighter snow thereafter

The rain/snow line continues to collapse southeast this evening
and was along and southeast of a Fall River to Hanover line.
We should see that changeover area move across the Cape Cod
Canal through 11 pm. Even the Cape should see a brief burst of
snow after midnight.

The guidance continues to indicate very strong frontogenesis
just northwest of a backbent warm front at 850 mb. This will
result in 1-2" per hour snowfall rates across the Boston to
Providence corridor through midnight/1 am. While the heaviest of
the snow should be over by that time...another batch of lighter
snow will push through and should exit the coast between 4
and 7 am

[Prismshine Productions]

made it to 4"... looking at radar might not even get another inch

[ineedsnow]

1/2 inch in 13 minutes 3.5   and getting detroyed with fluff

[Typhoon Tip]

lowest vis of the event 

27 F

3”

either S+ or heavy chalk dust 

[Spanks45]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We knew. Looks nice at least.

Yeah, my official guess in the family guessing game was 4.7", will end up short of that most likely....had the whole family out including neighbors sledding for a good 2 hrs..doesn't take much to have a good time

[tavwtby]

Almost 4" at the 6 hour mark... we'll see what else falls when I wake at 430. good luck all!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Wow, this is winding down fast in the western zones.  Looks like I’ll end around 4.5”.  
It won’t beat the December storm here but still a nice treat in a stingy winter.  It’s going to feel very wintry this week!

I was lucky to get into that good banding earlier tonight, otherwise probably would’ve ended with 2 or 3 inches.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

lowest vis of the event 

27 F

3”

either S+ or heavy chalk dust 

Yeah, that’s what I experienced here the past hour or so.   It’s one of the reasons I like SWFE here over coastal storms.  At my mere few hundred feet of elevation. The winds aloft in coastal storms leave me often swimming in a sea of shattered dendrites, while somebody 5 miles west of me 500’ higher doubles my snow totals due to better snow growth.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, this is winding down fast in the western zones.  Looks like I’ll end around 4.5”.  
It won’t beat the December storm here but still a nice treat in a stingy winter.  It’s going to feel very wintry this week!

I was lucky to get into that good banding earlier tonight, otherwise probably would’ve ended with 2 or 3 inches.

ripping here hoping for another hour or so of fun 

[dryslot]

Unless you got into a band that just trained over you for a few hours, Those big 6-10" totals were not happening.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Anyway, fun couple of hours and glad to have snow on the ground again!

[Prismshine Productions]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, this is winding down fast in the western zones.  Looks like I’ll end around 4.5”.  
It won’t beat the December storm here but still a nice treat in a stingy winter.  It’s going to feel very wintry this week!

I was lucky to get into that good banding earlier tonight, otherwise probably would’ve ended with 2 or 3 inches.

and  i want to knock some decks at NWS Albany for such an early Warning... 4" is only advisory level

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

Unless you got into a band that just trained over you for a few hours, Those big 6-10" totals were not happening.

 

I think there are some 8 inch totals in the high elevations west of me. 
Scooter called that earlier today with a signal for good fronto indicated for the Berkshires. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, that’s what I experienced here the past hour or so.   It’s one of the reasons I like SWFE here over coastal storms.  

I think of this as more of a coastal “storm” more than a SWFE.  The low is taking a coastal track.  Mid-levels aren’t warming.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

and  i want to knock some decks at NWS Albany for such an early Warning... 4" is only advisory level

That forecast was overdone and destined to fail. I’m not sure what they were seeing to go with those totals on their maps?  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I think of this as a coastal “storm” more than a SWFE.  The low is taking a coastal track.  

Oh, it’s absolutely a coastal storm, that’s my point.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think there are some 8 inch totals in the high elevations west of me. 
Scooter called that earlier today with a signal for good fronto indicated for the Berkshires. 

When you need to rely on banding for your snow, Its hit or miss.

[Henry's Weather]

Absolutely ripping in West Concord. LFG

[ORH_wxman]

Heaviest of the storm now. Not gonna last super long but these are the moments we wait for in winter. Eyeballing about 3” so far. 
 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That forecast was overdone and destined to fail. I’m not sure what they were seeing to go with those totals on their maps?  

they drank Reggie's vodka. Point blank.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I think of this as a coastal “storm” more than a SWFE.  The low is taking a coastal track.  

A SWFE is just a wall of steady snow falling straight down in these parts. Usually followed by an hour or two of light freezing drizzle.  None of this nonsense with winds aloft, creating micro flakes.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Yeah, my official guess in the family guessing game was 4.7", will end up short of that most likely....had the whole family out including neighbors sledding for a good 2 hrs..doesn't take much to have a good time

Nope. Eyeballing about 4” here. You know that tick of elevation around here helps. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

When you need to rely on banding for your snow, Its hit or miss.

I was very lucky to get hit earlier. It was such a narrow band from me to Dendrite. 

[CoastalWx]

Heavy snow now. Medium sized flakes. Looks amazing out. 31.7

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Down to 29 with moderate snow 

According to ineedsnow, that’s a whiteout. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dendrite will get like 8-9"...probably about the jack.

Ashfield MA with 7” already. But they will be done sooner