As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Typhoon Tip]

would anyone find it funny if this ended up takin' a boat ride up the Hudson ?

ho man.  there'd be some deliciously guilty schadenfreude watching that happen      muah hahaha

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone find it funny if this ended up takin' a boat ride up the Hudson ?

ho man.  there'd be some deliciously guilty schadenfreude watching that happen      muah hahaha

Lets get the RGEM with rain river east.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

would anyone find it funny if this ended up takin' a boat ride up the Hudson ?

ho man.  there'd be some deliciously guilty schadenfreude watching that happen      muah hahaha

It is a possibility...  Not banking on that, but the trends have hinted at that

[Prismshine Productions]

2-4” WOR,  3-6” EOR

4.5-5" to start the favorable stretch would do wonders

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It is a possibility...  Not banking on that, but the trends have hinted at that

Not seeing it

[Typhoon Tip]

that RGEM solution from 00z and 06z ...doesn't necessarily extrapolate to a rain event east of the river for me.

is there some longer version of this model that isn't the ggem itself or something ?

[MJO812]

6z Euro AI shifted west

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets get the RGEM with rain river east.

Then watch the Carolina’s get crushed mid week 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that RGEM solution from 00z and 06z ...doesn't necessarily extrapolate to a rain event east of the river for me.

is there some longer version of this model that isn't the ggem itself or something ?

It was quite warm in SNE and that vort looked like it wanted to track the low into SNE.

[CoastalWx]

I was just having fun anyways.

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah, 06z euro is west and essentially on-board with the 06z gfs ...

both of which may actually be tamed version of the 00z ggem, but i recall back in the older days the ggem had a slight meridian bias at d4.  in theory the upgrade heredity would atone ... but just like with the euro's sw lag, or the gfs progressive bias... these still seem to vestigially nuance the runs every once in a while.

and look, we're crossing the 96 hours threshold - go figure...

[Sn0waddict]

Seems like models are bouncing all over the place. As nice as the 6z GFS and EURO are, I hope they don’t pull the rug at 12z. 

[DJln491]

what the...who the...?  trending favorably inside of 100 hrs? did I wake up in some parallel universe?

[SouthCoastMA]

Looks precarious here..RGEM might've had a clue after all

nice 300 mile shift west with the 6z Euro. not exactly steady eddie

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Seems like models are bouncing all over the place. As nice as the 6z GFS and EURO are, I hope they don’t pull the rug at 12z. 

We are at that 96 hour threshold where globals start to have a clue

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looks precarious here..RGEM might've had a clue after all

6z Euro was pretty cold for you. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was quite warm in SNE and that vort looked like it wanted to track the low into SNE.

mm  maybe initially in a shallow sfc layer, but that ends up a cryo profile easily when cyclogenic atmosphere runs overhead the way i see it.

the 850 mb event entry is -5c over ORH and the llv thickness is in the snow range, and it's not warmer at 700 mb in this case.  

it may be a difference of opinion ...over a model cinema that isn't worth the effort ( the rgem at 84 hours hahahaha ) anyway lol, but that low is going to pop s of long island in that circumstance, when the right exit region runs over the b-c axis that is better defined in that region.   that will back the 850s and immediately there is no warm air at that point.  

you guys in the se ( again...talking my own rgem extrapolation ) may have to deal with a cf for a time... but it's less than 0c at 850 on either side of that

 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Euro was pretty cold for you. 

Yeah it's pretty close, though best lift seems to be west. 6z ai is only a tick nw..and has been more consistent

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah it's pretty close, though best lift seems to be west. 6z ai is only a tick nw..and has been more consistent

You get more of the CCB as the low develops. 

[Sn0waddict]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We are at that 96 hour threshold where globals start to have a clue

True.  Guess I’m just a bit skeptical given our back luck with snow these past however many years it’s been lol

[Prismshine Productions]

It was quite warm in SNE and that vort looked like it wanted to track the low into SNE.

South Central Connecticut not far from the coast

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway, assume full impact ( or the most possible ...), what that is probably caps at a middling/moderate type event.  yeah, meso banding this, or cf enhancement that can materialize and lay down a stripe that exceeds the general layout in any event.  but by and large this system is limited by ... yup, you guessed it, compression getting in the way of huger mechanics, and also speed.  this fugger is haulin' ass.  it may only last 7.change hours.

i'd go (light+moderate)/2 ...and anyone that gets more than that has to buy a round at the next meet up. 

unless it all misses   haha

[JC-CT]

11 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

True.  Guess I’m just a bit skeptical given our back luck with snow these past however many years it’s been lol

How often does it work out when we are begging for large scale changes on a bad prog within 96 hours?

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

How often does it work out when we are begging for large scale changes on a bad prog within 96 hours?

These arctic waves loves to ramp up as we get closer.

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is def more "Huggy" than others, but still prob snow for most of SNE except far SE....this is 925mb at 84h right before it gets in here....you actually still have weak advection from Maine at this point too

 

[tavwtby]

looks like there may be a sharp cut off from frozen to wet, and some decent mid level stuff just NW of where that demarcation is, if this holds... still time to go here, would like to see more alignment offshore, and not huggin and runnin inland.

[ORH_wxman]

Kind of weird how the NAM isn't even remotely interested in this event....Still in clown range for that model though. Showed no interest at 06z either.

[Spanks45]

I know it's the Nam, but it wants nothing to do with the 'storm'. It keeps ramping up that second wave, leaving nothing behind for our system....I'm sure this will be the case (assuming we are getting something) that the storm will just pop out of nowhere in the 48-72 hr range on that model. It clearly has no clue or maybe it does?

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kind of weird how the NAM isn't even remotely interested in this event....Still in clown range for that model though. Showed no interest at 06z either.

Ninja'd me there....Lots of REGM talk, but no Nam discussion. No surprise there....