As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[WxWatcher007]

@The 4 Seasons use the COCORAHS report from East Hartford. I gave my measurement no effort and the guy is about a mile from me.  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Oh please don't associate makers with that hack Mark! I'll never be able to look at a bottle the same again

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good forecast...

B

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/snowfall-forecast-for-quick-hitting.html

[Spanks45]

3.7" on the western side of Southbury @The 4 Seasons....Just nice to see some snow on the ground. I will complain about the bare ground already on the south facing slopes of the yard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

3.7" on the western side of Southbury @The 4 Seasons....Just nice to see some snow on the ground. I will complain about the bare ground already on the south facing slopes of the yard.

4.25” on the east side at 500’. 

[CoastalWx]

I gave 3-5 for my hood with emphasis on 3-4 so I was on the lower side. 
 

I actually flipped a little sooner than I thought. Looking at the models it looked like I would change to snow after 9p, but they were kind of hesitant in bringing down the cold air at that time. I knew precip would be starting to go to town, but I was a little worried about the boundary layer finally getting cold enough. However, right around 8:20 or so the front came through and it turned to snow, started sticking instantly, and the temp dropped to freezing pretty quickly. So I’m not sure why models were so slow and bringing down that cool air. I also did not expect to have good snows almost to midnight. And then that extra inch after that at like 3a.

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, ROOSTA said:

To dream... I'll be only a 30-minute ride N. to seeing winter precipitation. Could be in another universe.
SO FRIGGIN CLOSE.    

I would make that drive if I were you. Probably won’t see that kind of precipitation again in our lifetimes 

[Cold Miser]

15 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

As underwhelming as this was...and not by much, just under 4" on a 4-8FX expectation. It's still a welcome and pleasant surprise given the pretty intense cold thats coming to keep all the snow around coupled with the fact this looked like a nothing burger-whiff 4 or 5 days ago.

If anyone has an final totals for the event anywhere let me know. ill be doing maps for the tri-state area, CT and SNE, thanks.

 

3" in Dayville...9" for the season.

[512high]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I gave 3-5 for my hood with emphasis on 3-4 so I was on the lower side. 
 

I actually flipped a little sooner than I thought. Looking at the models it looked like I would change to snow after 9p, but they were kind of hesitant in bringing down the cold air at that time. I knew precip would be starting to go to town, but I was a little worried about the boundary layer finally getting cold enough. However, right around 8:20 or so the front came through and it turned to snow, started sticking instantly, and the temp dropped to freezing pretty quickly. So I’m not sure why models were so slow and bringing down that cool air. I also did not expect to have good snows almost to midnight. And then that extra inch after that at like 3a.

Scott, I have a question. I measure (3) Spots at my shop, (1) had 5.5", (2) measure 5.75"

At home about 3-4 miles away, I measure 6" and 6.25"

 

Local media WMUR Ch.9 shows Nashua, NH at 7", not sure if this was submitted by NWS spotter etc.

So what should I put in for my records I keep every snow season, unless heavy banding was at my house, and blowing from wind?

[powderfreak]

Just now, 512high said:

Scott, I have a question. I measure (3) Spots at my shop, (1) had 5.5", (2) measure 5.75"

At home about 3-4 miles away, I measure 6" and 6.25"

 

Local media WMUR Ch.9 shows Nashua, NH at 7", not sure if this was submitted by NWS spotter etc.

So what should I put in for my records I keep every snow season, unless heavy banding was at my house, and blowing from wind?

A difference of a half an inch over 3-4 miles is well within the range of possibilities.

Your shop got like 5.7” and home got 6.1” or something.  Talking like a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF difference there.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A difference of a half an inch over 3-4 miles is well within the range of possibilities.

Your shop got like 5.7” and home got 6.1” or something.  Talking like a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF difference there.

Yeah I would take the average of what he measured at home and as you said, that variance is certainly within reason. 

[George001]

Eyeballing 5 inches or so here

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals maps for CT, SNE and the Tri-state area. Reports are from here, COOP, CoCoRaHs and NWS PNS. 

I think the forecast overall was OK. Most of the area fell within the 4-8" except for the southern portion which a good deal of the population lives. I can't give it a great grade but at the same time it was far from a bust overall. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-24-25

Grade: C

 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall totals maps for CT, SNE and the Tri-state area. Reports are from here, COOP, CoCoRaHs and NWS PNS. 

I think the forecast overall was OK. Most of the area fell within the 4-8" except for the southern portion which a good deal of the population lives. I can't give it a great grade but at the same time it was far from a bust overall. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-24-25

Grade: C

 

I wasn’t kidding—I tossed my snow board in disgust last week lol. I’m lucky that I got what I did last night. Minor miracle.

I ended up being more aggressive with the final call forecast which I regret. Wasn’t the worst though outside of SE CT which was an absolute disaster. Oh well. 

[The 4 Seasons]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I wasn’t kidding—I tossed my snow board in disgust last week lol. I’m lucky that I got what I did last night. Minor miracle.

I ended up being more aggressive with the final call forecast which I regret. Wasn’t the worst though outside of SE CT which was an absolute disaster. Oh well. 

The last map i saw from you was 5-10 across the state and 4-8 SE corner? That was pretty bad. For CT alone id give the grade a D/D+. Warnings were probably not even waranted anywhere in CT, advisories would have done it. It was pretty a much a 3-6 statewide, 1-3 south and SE CT and 0-1 far SE corner and shore. 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The last map i saw from you was 5-10 across the state and 4-8 SE corner? That was pretty bad. For CT alone id give the grade a D/D+. Warnings were probably not even waranted anywhere in CT, advisories would have done it. It was pretty a much a 3-6 statewide, 1-3 south and SE CT and 0-1 far SE corner and shore. 

Yeah, regrets all around lol  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So just to wrap this up, did any model handle this well?

The euro 24 hours out was giving most of eastern ma 12+, did anyone see more like than like 5 or 6 anywhere?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So just to wrap this up, did any model handle this well?

The euro 24 hours out was giving most of eastern ma 12+, did anyone see more like than like 5 or 6 anywhere?

Euro only had one run that really smoked us. It otherwise was raising the red flags on widespread 7”+. So I’d say it handled the storm the best inside of 72 hours. It failed in the medium range though (D5-6). 
 

Maybe Ukie gets some kudos too…it was pretty consistently meh on big warning totals. A lot of runs were in that 4-6” range. 

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM did the best in mid range. 

persistently showing impacts while the other models were unilaterally opposed. The GFS did do well on one or two runs around D 4 or 5 but lost it.  
 

[Prismshine Productions]

GGEM did the best in mid range. 
persistently showing impacts while the other models were unilaterally opposed. The GFS did do well on one or two runs around D 4 or 5 but lost it.  
 

Reggie with the coup

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[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Reggie with the coup

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RGEM performed poorly IMHO....way too amped and much higher impact than the storm actually was.

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM performed poorly IMHO....way too amped and much higher impact than the storm actually was.

Agree...  Amazing how even after an event there is debate about how a model performed.  RGEM certainly didn't perform well...

[Prismshine Productions]

Agree...  Amazing how even after an event there is debate about how a model performed.  RGEM certainly didn't perform well...

I think we can all agree the Euro sucked ass the worst this time

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[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I think we can all agree the Euro sucked ass the worst this time

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Euro vastly outperformed the RGEM inside of 72 hours.

 

The RGEMs cousin, the GGEM, performed better than the Euro in the medium range...Like D5-6. But the RGEM only goes out to 84 hours....but by that time, the Euro already had an event and it was mostly advisory snows (which is what verified for the most part) while the RGEM was showing these crazy zonked solutions giving western MA/E NY State and VT/NH a foot of snow or more while everyone east of ORH was mostly rain....it was a really bad performance by that model.

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I think we can all agree the Euro sucked ass the worst this time

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Most of the time the final solution is a mix of pieces from several models.  Folks fall in love with a particular model and facts be dam they think it performed better than all others... Was the Euro perfect?  No!  But when was was all said and done, it's 72 hr inward trends were best...

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Agree...  Amazing how even after an event there is debate about how a model performed.  RGEM certainly didn't perform well...

Probably depends on what metrics folks are using to to verify. But yeah....the RGEM didn't do well at all. I mean I don't even look at the model and I can't tell from seeing it being posted here lol. 

At least for me, when I think of verification, I want to see which model handled the pieces better and which model was the most consistent with how the pieces evolved. 

Stuff like SLP, QPF, snow maps...I don't really care too much about (SLP/QPF probably more so in the final 36 hours) but if you can get a strong handle on the mid/upper levels, you can get a good sense of SLP/QPF without even looking at those products. 

But like Will said, inside 72 hours the Euro really nailed it and I have to give props to the NAM...it certainly picked up on how this would evolve and I would not expect a model like the GFS to really pickup on precip shield structure. 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM got a little too juicy inside of 36 hours on a few runs, but it was surprisingly tame before that which was kind of a red flag on those huge zonked solutions.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Most of the time the final solution is a mix of pieces from several models.  Folks fall in love with a particular model and facts be dam they think it performed better than all others... Was the Euro perfect?  No!  But when was was all said and done, it's 72 hr inward trends were best...

BINGO....1000% agreed. 

This is also the approach that should be taken with the forecasting aspect. One needs to use knowledge/experience and try to gauge which model is going to handle certain elements the best and then kind of develop a blend within their head. I know NWS has ways and I think there are some pay sites where you can create model blends yourself. 

Even models that may have performed worse overall, it's quite possible they handled certain elements better than the models which performed best. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM got a little too juicy inside of 36 hours on a few runs, but it was surprisingly tame before that which was kind of a red flag on those huge zonked solutions.

When I looking around at bufkit for several locations from the NAM there were a quite a bit of red flags being presented. 

But when you're dealing with a situation where it's predominately heavy banding or kind of bust...it can be extremely hard to forecast, especially if you're not certain where that heaviest banding will reside. 

For example, NAM had some great profile looks at ORH and you could have argued for 6-8" because of the banding signal...but if that band ends up not over them...well the 6-8" isn't happening. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie was abysmal. It was tracking the low over my head 36 hours out. That model is what we thought it was.