As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[WxWatcher007]

@The 4 Seasons use the COCORAHS report from East Hartford. I gave my measurement no effort and the guy is about a mile from me.  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Oh please don't associate makers with that hack Mark! I'll never be able to look at a bottle the same again

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good forecast...

B

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/snowfall-forecast-for-quick-hitting.html

[Spanks45]

3.7" on the western side of Southbury @The 4 Seasons....Just nice to see some snow on the ground. I will complain about the bare ground already on the south facing slopes of the yard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

3.7" on the western side of Southbury @The 4 Seasons....Just nice to see some snow on the ground. I will complain about the bare ground already on the south facing slopes of the yard.

4.25” on the east side at 500’. 

[CoastalWx]

I gave 3-5 for my hood with emphasis on 3-4 so I was on the lower side. 
 

I actually flipped a little sooner than I thought. Looking at the models it looked like I would change to snow after 9p, but they were kind of hesitant in bringing down the cold air at that time. I knew precip would be starting to go to town, but I was a little worried about the boundary layer finally getting cold enough. However, right around 8:20 or so the front came through and it turned to snow, started sticking instantly, and the temp dropped to freezing pretty quickly. So I’m not sure why models were so slow and bringing down that cool air. I also did not expect to have good snows almost to midnight. And then that extra inch after that at like 3a.

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, ROOSTA said:

To dream... I'll be only a 30-minute ride N. to seeing winter precipitation. Could be in another universe.
SO FRIGGIN CLOSE.    

I would make that drive if I were you. Probably won’t see that kind of precipitation again in our lifetimes 

[Cold Miser]

15 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

As underwhelming as this was...and not by much, just under 4" on a 4-8FX expectation. It's still a welcome and pleasant surprise given the pretty intense cold thats coming to keep all the snow around coupled with the fact this looked like a nothing burger-whiff 4 or 5 days ago.

If anyone has an final totals for the event anywhere let me know. ill be doing maps for the tri-state area, CT and SNE, thanks.

 

3" in Dayville...9" for the season.

[512high]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I gave 3-5 for my hood with emphasis on 3-4 so I was on the lower side. 
 

I actually flipped a little sooner than I thought. Looking at the models it looked like I would change to snow after 9p, but they were kind of hesitant in bringing down the cold air at that time. I knew precip would be starting to go to town, but I was a little worried about the boundary layer finally getting cold enough. However, right around 8:20 or so the front came through and it turned to snow, started sticking instantly, and the temp dropped to freezing pretty quickly. So I’m not sure why models were so slow and bringing down that cool air. I also did not expect to have good snows almost to midnight. And then that extra inch after that at like 3a.

Scott, I have a question. I measure (3) Spots at my shop, (1) had 5.5", (2) measure 5.75"

At home about 3-4 miles away, I measure 6" and 6.25"

 

Local media WMUR Ch.9 shows Nashua, NH at 7", not sure if this was submitted by NWS spotter etc.

So what should I put in for my records I keep every snow season, unless heavy banding was at my house, and blowing from wind?

[powderfreak]

Just now, 512high said:

Scott, I have a question. I measure (3) Spots at my shop, (1) had 5.5", (2) measure 5.75"

At home about 3-4 miles away, I measure 6" and 6.25"

 

Local media WMUR Ch.9 shows Nashua, NH at 7", not sure if this was submitted by NWS spotter etc.

So what should I put in for my records I keep every snow season, unless heavy banding was at my house, and blowing from wind?

A difference of a half an inch over 3-4 miles is well within the range of possibilities.

Your shop got like 5.7” and home got 6.1” or something.  Talking like a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF difference there.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A difference of a half an inch over 3-4 miles is well within the range of possibilities.

Your shop got like 5.7” and home got 6.1” or something.  Talking like a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF difference there.

Yeah I would take the average of what he measured at home and as you said, that variance is certainly within reason. 

[George001]

Eyeballing 5 inches or so here

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals maps for CT, SNE and the Tri-state area. Reports are from here, COOP, CoCoRaHs and NWS PNS. 

I think the forecast overall was OK. Most of the area fell within the 4-8" except for the southern portion which a good deal of the population lives. I can't give it a great grade but at the same time it was far from a bust overall. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-24-25

Grade: C

 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall totals maps for CT, SNE and the Tri-state area. Reports are from here, COOP, CoCoRaHs and NWS PNS. 

I think the forecast overall was OK. Most of the area fell within the 4-8" except for the southern portion which a good deal of the population lives. I can't give it a great grade but at the same time it was far from a bust overall. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-24-25

Grade: C

 

I wasn’t kidding—I tossed my snow board in disgust last week lol. I’m lucky that I got what I did last night. Minor miracle.

I ended up being more aggressive with the final call forecast which I regret. Wasn’t the worst though outside of SE CT which was an absolute disaster. Oh well. 

[The 4 Seasons]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I wasn’t kidding—I tossed my snow board in disgust last week lol. I’m lucky that I got what I did last night. Minor miracle.

I ended up being more aggressive with the final call forecast which I regret. Wasn’t the worst though outside of SE CT which was an absolute disaster. Oh well. 

The last map i saw from you was 5-10 across the state and 4-8 SE corner? That was pretty bad. For CT alone id give the grade a D/D+. Warnings were probably not even waranted anywhere in CT, advisories would have done it. It was pretty a much a 3-6 statewide, 1-3 south and SE CT and 0-1 far SE corner and shore. 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The last map i saw from you was 5-10 across the state and 4-8 SE corner? That was pretty bad. For CT alone id give the grade a D/D+. Warnings were probably not even waranted anywhere in CT, advisories would have done it. It was pretty a much a 3-6 statewide, 1-3 south and SE CT and 0-1 far SE corner and shore. 

Yeah, regrets all around lol