As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 2 hours between about 930-1130 probably dropped about 3.5-4”…it was excellent snow growth in those heavier bands. Thought it was going to finish closer to 5” but that overnight band dropped another inch of pure blower fluff. 

It's awesome how great of a tool bufkit is for diagnosing snowfall. That was illustrated beautifully...both hourly rates and duration. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I gotta stop getting so heavily influenced by the cute SLP/QPF maps...that's what tends to get me, especially when you'll have say like the GFS which isn't going to resolve some of the finer nuisances like the mesos would so it has that beautiful looking QPF shield. Gotta get these questions embedded into the noggin:

1) Does the QPF on that widespread of a scale make sense?

2) If that QPF makes sense, what is happening with that QPF (which this question could have a subset of several additional questions)?

3) What is going on with llvl and mlvl storm evolution and how is that impacting overall lift? Is there going to be a heavy reliance for narrow bands of frontogenesis or are we looking at a larger scale source for greater and more intense banding? 

How this precipitation shield evolved...IMO the NAM and Euro really nailed it but I can remember that 12z NAM run from Friday...seemed like so many were quick to discount it because the precip shield didn't make sense...well it did make sense and the reasons why it made sense, verified nicely. Heavier stuff northwest, kind of crap in the middle unless you got lucky with some narrow bands, and then heavier stuff northeast.  

One thing I have noticed about you is that you are prone to losing sight of the forest through the trees.

[weatherwiz]

Speaking of bufkit, I wonder if this should have been a major flag. The snow ratio (using cobb method) was all over the place...it looked like an seismograph after an Earthquake. I wonder if that should have been a clear cut signal that outside of heavier banding, the ratios and snowgrowth would be pretty bad. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I have noticed about you is that you are prone to losing sight of the forest through the trees.

Agreed. 

[backedgeapproaching]

Had a work Zoom meeting this morning and my coworker lives somewhere near ORH, and said on the call this morning " we got at least a foot, maybe more"   I was almost tempted to say something.

[weathafella]

I’ll have to get dressed and do some snow removal and measure in a shady spot. I was just under 4 when I came in from an arduous but lovely long walk last night.  The final band based on my foot falls filling up probably gave me another 1.5-2 so probably will be in the 5-6 range-looking more 5.5ish.  Logan came in with 5 so futility is off the table.  I believe the BOS season total is around 12 now.

[Layman]

Doesn’t get any more official than this - 5” on the money. Take it to the bank!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Had a work Zoom meeting this morning and my coworker lives somewhere near ORH, and said on the call this morning " we got at least a foot, maybe more"   I was almost tempted to say something.

After years of 2-4” events, 6” starts to look like a foot. I remember those fond years of my childhood. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

[WinterSnow]

Got maybe 4 inches. "Meh" for my first "Winter Storm Warning" storm in CT, but it is thicker than most of the stuff I've seen here so far and is quite pretty!

[TheMainer]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

I know they're riding out of Rockwood and Kakadjo, but any idea on how trails around Greenville are?

Id avoid Greenville at all costs until they get another foot. The trails east and west of the lake are through the woods and crooked which take a decent amount of snow to make nice. We trucked to Quebec to ride this weekend since everybody and their brother was riding Eustis to Millinocket areas. 

[DavisStraight]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

About 6” in Holliston. Very picturesque snow 

 

 

I see your molding some good banks there, maybe rival Kevins before the season is done.

[ma blizzard]

6.0" in Shrewsbury

1.8" of fluff after midnight 

[tunafish]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I was definitely on the southern end of the dry air up by @tamarack. Between the bands @dendrite and @tunafish were in.

I can see the weenies on CoCoRaHS though. We have the same liquid but everyone is an inch higher on snow. 

SWE and thermals don't lie.

[H2Otown_WX]

Does anyone know which model verified the QPF best? I guess it's difficult to tell since everyone had varying ratios.

[Prismshine Productions]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

map really shows who got the goods with the frontobands

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Does anyone know which model verified the QPF best? I guess it's difficult to tell since everyone had varying ratios.

Certainly not the mark model

[NeonPeon]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Whoever reported 3 for Newport is full of it, but that's probably that Middletown location.

Enough to sled on for three hours and I'll take that.

[DavisStraight]

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

map really shows who got the goods with the frontobands

The map has me as 5.2 which sounds about right but my driveway only has 3 inches, the rain before killed the accumulation on the warm, wet service.

[Yukon Cornelius]

5” here in Barre, MA. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly not the mark model

Or the KFS.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Or the KFS.

At least we know the KFS runs off of IPA alcohol content. Who the hell knows what the Mark model runs off of.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

At least we know the KFS runs off of IPA alcohol content. Who the hell knows what the Mark model runs off of.

The mark model is tethered to a bong.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The mark model is tethered to a bong.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Need to change the name to missed his mark.

[NW_of_GYX]

4” bridgton, ME 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 1/16/2025 at 7:52 AM, CoastalWx said:

If somehow I break 4”, I’m buying a round at the next gtg.

friendly reminder…let’s get 100 weenies at the next gtg so @CoastalWxcan make good on this.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

friendly reminder…let’s get 100 weenies at the next gtg so @CoastalWxcan make good on this.

I'm a man of my word.

[ROOSTA]

To dream... I'll be only a 30-minute ride N. to seeing winter precipitation. Could be in another universe.
SO FRIGGIN CLOSE.    

[NoCORH4L]

8 hours ago, TheMainer said:

Around an inch here, storm definitely shit the bed, last NWS update here was still 4-6. Oh well, guess another week of not opening trails, local businesses are hurting after 4 straight crappy winters up here, might as well sell the sleds and move to somewhere we can golf year round. 

I just got back from riding in Pittsburg, and it was not great. Lower elevations around the lakes are poop, and at elevation it's ok but thin in a lot of spots and all bumps.