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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

Man this thing does not look all that impressive this morning. Whoever gets the ML fronto band might squeak out 6-7'' at higher SLR but I think there's going to be a lot of 3-5'' around SNE. I don't like that the high-res guidance has a disorganized mess of a precip shield. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 3:09 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

What's the 12z Mark Model saying

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You wonder why I get triggered by all these clown maps and clown Mets for that matter. We’re honestly moving backwards as a field. There is so much bad info being broadcasted and people who don’t know any better just gobbling it up. It’s so bad and frankly it’s frustrating. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 2:03 PM, jbenedet said:

yes atmosphere is cold above the surface
 

But - it’s a fast mover, ground will be warm and surface temps warm at onset. I’m concerned overall ratios and white rain, before the flip to good rates. 
 

I’m expecting 4” imby. And more confidence it ends up lower than higher. 3-4” highest confidence.

 

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The ground is warm? We’re actually making some real frost depth up here right now with the lack of snow cover and cold temps. Ground temps aren’t going to limit anything.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 3:25 PM, dendrite said:

I had glazing in my driveway yesterday despite 36° RASN. 

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Driveway here is still glazed and roads have a glazed look. I wanted to hit up Wal Mart/Big Y but I don't want to deal with any ice potential...not just myself but people drive like idiots. I'll just stay put. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 3:26 PM, weatherwiz said:

Driveway here is still glazed and roads have a glazed look. I wanted to hit up Wal Mart/Big Y but I don't want to deal with any ice potential...not just myself but people drive like idiots. I'll just stay put. 

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Close the shades and hunker down. It’s a dangerous world out there.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 3:27 PM, dendrite said:

It’s 1030. I think you’re fine now. 

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Unfortunately I have a busy day ahead so my window to do that closed. Wal Mart is probably a disaster (and the Wal Mart here is always a disaster on a normal day...it's actually ranked as like one of the top 5 or 10 most violent in the country lol) and I'm sure everyone is at Big Y grabbing bread and milk.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

This is pretty interesting, however, I think it shows the significance of a band materializing and being under the band today. I'm becoming more and more convinced that outside of the banding...spots may struggle to get much past 3-4"...and this could end up being generous. 

Anyways, when I was looking at 12z NAM bufkit I was a little shocked. Based on 12z NAM bufkit, it looked like the heaviest banding would impact BOS-BDL and probably just west of ORH. But when assessing the model I would have thought the banding signal was better northwest of this line...unfortunately not much for bufkit profiles (CAN in northwest CT but it didn't look as impressive there). 

Here is a snip it of BOS/BDL. The window for accumulation is small and heavily tied into the banding. 

image.png.48835f2217c4dba006f54ed63d33cb52.png

image.png.e0548ce412ffc10737d4044f18e72203.png

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2025 at 3:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

You wonder why I get triggered by all these clown maps and clown Mets for that matter. We’re honestly moving backwards as a field. There is so much bad info being broadcasted and people who don’t know any better just gobbling it up. It’s so bad and frankly it’s frustrating. 

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HVAC guy at my house last week was trying to tell me that it was going to be -20 up here this week. he was looking at a map one of the clown Mets posted on twatter. It was an upper air map of 850 temps. talk about misleading

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