As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[DavisStraight]

I like the that the GFS leaves a little left back for my area 

[bristolri_wx]

Updated BOX map

[Torch Tiger]

pedestrian

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Updated BOX map

Notice that little yellow circle in the Weymouth area.

[78Blizzard]

The Euro is determined to go out the way it came in - meh.  Big cutback in qpf from 12z.

[wxsniss]

On 1/17/2025 at 2:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

somehow this post was even more true the following night

0z Euro seems an outlier relative to NAM/GFS / AIFS... not even consistent with it's own 12z run

[Greg]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro is determined to go out the way it came in - meh.  Big cutback in qpf from 12z.

Highly unusual for the Euro of to fall apart so close in.

[Torch Tiger]

where are these?  zzZzzzzz overrunning - days and days, etc.   :p

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3517120011715678&id=122106561217057&set=a.178319238929122

[Torch Tiger]

Wish we could muster up a late-season setup with extreme winds and snows, or even rains if it comes to that. 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wish we could muster up a late-season setup with extreme winds and snows, or even rains if it comes to that. 

Severe thunderstorms?

[BombsAway1288]

Where’s that clown met on twitter who was calling a victory for the Canadians 48 hrs out? 

[joey2002]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Where’s that clown met on twitter who was calling a victory for the Canadians 48 hrs out? 

Looks like he made up “the Mark model” now that the Canadian failed him

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1880857869379067979?s=46&t=2MsyZ8_1I3aJhRuATOtecw

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Severe thunderstorms?

 will you get over 3.99" snow?

[Prismshine Productions]

6z HRRR with a shift east... damn polar lobe 

[moneypitmike]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My take.

 

I'm hoping  Ray's thinking of these placements hasn't' changed.   For my backyard......I think I'll need it.

GYX's is encouraging, though the 06 runs are non inspiring.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, joey2002 said:

Looks like he made up “the Mark model” now that the Canadian failed him

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1880857869379067979?s=46&t=2MsyZ8_1I3aJhRuATOtecw

He’s not a met either. That is made up fake news 

[BrianW]

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro ramped back up. Gonna be interesting to nowcast this today. 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro ramped back up. Gonna be interesting to nowcast this today. 

hoping we see the same with the 12z models

[ineedsnow]

@ORH_wxman the 0z Euro was better here

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro ramped back up. Gonna be interesting to nowcast this today. 

I saw, good to see. The NAMs and HRRR are pretty paltry. 

[ineedsnow]

6z EPS also coming down a bit  and more members are east 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro ramped back up. Gonna be interesting to nowcast this today. 

We romp 

[Damage In Tolland]

There should be a lot of 6-9” amounts fairly widespread. A few that band an extra few hours will see 10”+

[weatherwiz]

This is going to be a total nowcast. I am really not sure what to make of the QPF outputs. I feel like outside of the heavier fronto banding the QPF is going to underperform. The NAM has me really nervous too with what looks like the idea of two bands (one centered around Albany and the second northeastern Mass into northeast CT/far northwest RI maybe?). The GFS also kind of hints at this too but seems to phase the bands together and CT into northeast MA gets smoked. 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I saw, good to see. The NAMs and HRRR are pretty paltry. 

 

10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS also coming down a bit  and more members are east 

 

 

 

Are you able to show that map for further north?

This close in, Ithink the op is more useful than the ensembles.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be a total nowcast. I am really not sure what to make of the QPF outputs. I feel like outside of the heavier fronto banding the QPF is going to underperform. The NAM has me really nervous too with what looks like the idea of two bands (one centered around Albany and the second northeastern Mass into northeast CT/far northwest RI maybe?). The GFS also kind of hints at this too but seems to phase the bands together and CT into northeast MA gets smoked. 

Yes---I thnk there's a lot of downward busts possible.  I don't think anyone will be coming in higher than forecast.

[Pennfisherman]

When does everything start ramping up? Between 2pm-6pm today? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Yes---I thnk there's a lot of downward busts possible.  I don't think anyone will be coming in higher than forecast.

I do think there will be some 10-12" totals but outside of the banding I think we're looking at the lower end for snowfall ranges. It's still going to be a decent event...I would anticipate still a widespread 5-6" for most. 

[wokeupthisam]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be a total nowcast. I am really not sure what to make of the QPF outputs. I feel like outside of the heavier fronto banding the QPF is going to underperform. The NAM has me really nervous too with what looks like the idea of two bands (one centered around Albany and the second northeastern Mass into northeast CT/far northwest RI maybe?). The GFS also kind of hints at this too but seems to phase the bands together and CT into northeast MA gets smoked. 

Hints of the low having trouble consolidating in the compressed flow?