As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

am I the only one thinking that the messenger shifts might be a bit overdone?

Yes, just you. They are legit.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

am I the only one thinking that the messenger shifts might be a bit overdone?

Yes, Delayed but not denied.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

funny how I moved from one shit NWS area (CAE) to another shit one in Albany...

The ALY forecast range for my area still says 4-13" lol

[Prismshine Productions]

was this... was this a legit thing?

https://x.com/weatherinri/status/1880742000535937272?s=46

[joey2002]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

8-10:1 in between bands .. 15-20:1 in the good banding .. Average ratios will depend how long you are under the banding.. 

 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You have a bit of elevation too, right? That will prob help you in the first hour or two. I’d prob peg ratios for like 13 to 1 there but it wouldn’t surprise me if you got into a weenie band and went close to 16 or 18 to 1. 

Thanks, yeah I’m at 650ft in Tolland so not quite Kevin’s 1k but some elevation at least.  

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes, just you. They are legit.

might be legit but I think the convection to the east is playing with the models a bit.. I kind of expect them to increase the next few runs but not to the extent of earlier runs..

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

was this... was this a legit thing?

https://x.com/weatherinri/status/1880742000535937272?s=46

lol yes they were terrible 

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Delayed but not denied.

I just bake them into the forecast. It is pretty routine to see models overamplify in the short term (days 2 or 3) and then in the last 24 hours just slide a little or flatten out. 

So then I am left sitting at the WFO with the snow totals...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We back.

 

thanks @butterfish55 and @dendrite

So you got banned by the new pessimism detection bot? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

might be legit but I think the convection to the east is playing with the models a bit.. I kind of expect them to increase the next few runs but not to the extent of earlier runs..

If we can get the WCB more established between now and go-time, then we’d prob see QPF increase across the region. You want to be drawing in that extra moisture into the CCB over the top of that legit cold dome to the west and we can wring it out. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I just bake them into the forecast. It is pretty routine to see models overamplify in the short term (days 2 or 3) and then in the last 24 hours just slide a little or flatten out. 

So then I am left sitting at the WFO with the snow totals...

Reason why i like to see it modeled as far west as possible, It always shuffles back east, The way the coast is contoured, 5-10 miles can make a huge difference.

[kazimirkai]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Reason why i like to see it modeled as far west as possible, It always shuffles back east, The way the coast is contoured, 5-10 miles can make a huge difference.

Yeah id be surprised if I cracked 4 inches at this point, hoping the northerly downslope is forgiving

[FXWX]

0z GFS keeps the eastern Mass love going!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

0z gfs crushes eastern ma and RI

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

0z gfs crushes eastern ma and RI

Does it still keep the 4"-8" in CT?

[ORH_wxman]

That’s around an inch of QPF BOS on that GFS run and the midlevel look supported it that run. Pretty healthy and a little closer to some of those previous GFS runs on the midlevel look except displaced a bit further east. We’ll see if we can get a little last second trend stronger with that initial WCB. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Does it still keep the 4"-8" in CT?

yes

 

[DJln491]

Nice gfs run 

[8611Blizz]

This is one gets down to Business right away too. About 10-11 hours for about 10". Wish they all could be like that.

[weathafella]

We take gfs!

[George001]

Gfs is a burial

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We take gfs!

20% more qpf than 18z run, keeping the trend going.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

0z gfs crushes eastern ma and RI

This time yesterday you practically gave up and wished the west luck lol. 

[Greg]

This is starting to look better and better especially at this time frame in the game. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Struggled with installing a new plow on the tractor this morning, therefore pushing the heaviest snows towards the southeast. Seriously though, looking pretty good for the Boston area. Hope you guys get crushed.

[kazimirkai]

   Me when the gfs is worse...

[Prismshine Productions]

 

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Struggled with installing a new plow on the tractor this morning, therefore pushing the heaviest snows towards the southeast. Seriously though, looking pretty good for the Boston area. Hope you guys get crushed.

Well now that it is on, it can come back our way

[78Blizzard]

Canadian stingier with the qpf this run.  We toss.

[Greg]

11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Canadian stingier with the qpf this run.  We toss.

I happen to like the majority of this model suite so far. Just waiting for the 0Z to make a final forecast.

[78Blizzard]

03z RAP bumped up qpf totals a bit in E MA.  So the mesos for the most part are not putting a damper on the global models.

 

Edit- I don't think the RAP is actually a meso.