As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:20 AM, weatherwiz said:

The other reason I hate snow maps is they aren’t stimulating. There’s nothing like loading up bufkit, clicking the overview tab, hitting reset, checking off snow growth, checking off omega, checking that box next to omega, going into the precip panel, clicking snowfall and precipitation and setting snow ratio to Cobb…now that is one of the most stimulating sequences there is. 

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Stimulate this… 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:05 AM, 78Blizzard said:

This is contrary to many met predictions (Stein for one) of the heaviest snow being in western areas.

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I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. 
 

I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east. 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. 
 

I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east. 

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Wonder why they went with a WSW here. Seems like we will struggle to meet the criteria.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:00 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

Wonder why they went with a WSW here. Seems like we will struggle to meet the criteria.

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Could be some good early banding out there before things congeal eastward. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. 
 

I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east. 

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I was mainly referring to the tv mets.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/final-call-for-quick-hitting-sunday.html

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:05 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/final-call-for-quick-hitting-sunday.html

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5"-8" is good with me! 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. 
 

I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east. 

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The headlines have decent bust potential.

Places with no headlines out-performing warned zones in some cases?  I could see NW rely on a fronto band, while SE gets smoked as the low gets going. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:08 AM, powderfreak said:

The headlines have decent bust potential.

Places with no headlines out-performing warned zones?

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I'd have the warning to PYM.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:08 AM, powderfreak said:

The headlines have decent bust potential.

Places with no headlines out-performing warned zones?

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I did find it curious that they didn’t warn this area, as it’s kind of slid into a favorable position on models 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:02 AM, OceanStWx said:

I am a little worried I'm maybe too heavy near the coast, and that the best banding ends up inland a bit. 

I'm also not quite as bullish as my neighbors on snow ratios (closer to BOX than anyone else).

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My take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like ASH into interior se NH.

[Greg]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd have the warning to PYM.

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Same thinking here. Definitely down to Scott to the Brockton area on the Southshore and also to Northern Rhode Island. Only thing left is were exactly the heaviest band sets up. Will be interesting to say the least.

[DJln491]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:08 AM, powderfreak said:

The headlines have decent bust potential.

Places with no headlines out-performing warned zones in some cases?  I could see NW rely on a fronto band, while SE gets smoked as the low gets going.

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It seems to align with the NWS maps still favoring western areas despite recent guidance.  I dunno, maybe some updates overnight

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My take.

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That's more or less where I drew my max amounts too.

[tavwtby]

thinking ratios play a factor in someone getting 6" of fluff vs someone getting 6" of lower ratio stuff with more QPF, think WOR would be high amounts but less QPF, then a good forcing band where it's not as cold in the DGZ.... thoughts?

[Damage In Tolland]

Remember when Forky had this running inland ? There were posts he had rain into NJ and NYC  lmao 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like ASH into interior se NH.

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I bet you crack double digits

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR is meh

[SouthCoastMA]

HRRR looks another tick colder and se

[dendrite]

Slicin’ and dicin’

[Chrisrotary12]

Haven’t looked at a model all day, been moving my mother in-laws house…. Still feeling good about 3-5” here? Always thought storm was moving too fast and not developed enough for bigger numbers. 

Did Euro score a coup and things shift southeast? What’s the story? Asking for a guy who doesn’t want to scroll back 30 pages or look for himself.

[ineedsnow]

not terrible but not great 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:28 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Haven’t looked at a model all day, been moving my mother in-laws house…. Still feeling good about 3-5” here? Always thought storm was moving too fast and not developed enough for bigger numbers. 

Did Euro score a coup and things shift southeast? What’s the story? Asking for a guy who doesn’t want to scroll back 30 pages or look for himself.

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Consensus 4-8”+ albany to the coast, euro caved to gfs, Nashua (where I think you are?) is in a prime location. 
 

Contentious about NW extend of the goods and the r/s line (NW of Plymouth or not, and duration)

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:28 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Haven’t looked at a model all day, been moving my mother in-laws house…. Still feeling good about 3-5” here? Always thought storm was moving too fast and not developed enough for bigger numbers. 

Did Euro score a coup and things shift southeast? What’s the story? Asking for a guy who doesn’t want to scroll back 30 pages or look for himself.

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Euro totally caved but then didn’t end up caving too much after all and Euro will probably be king still. 

[DJln491]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:29 AM, ineedsnow said:

not terrible but not great 

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was about to say...I've seen worse lol.  favors eastern areas, lingers around and does ok

[JC-CT]

  On 1/19/2025 at 12:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I was only half-kidding when I said Scooter to Tblizz might jackpot this. There’s a period where that zone could absolutely rip for 3 hours or so. If they get into one of those bands that’s 2-3”/hr, all bets off. 
 

I think there’s going to be an initial weenie band west out toward our friends in W/C CT and then things are rapidly going to try and congeal to the east. 

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  On 1/19/2025 at 1:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My take.

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So...

 

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:32 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro totally caved but then didn’t at all and Euro will probably be king still. 

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Totally not confusing 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:33 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Totally not confusing 

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Glad to help 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/19/2025 at 1:33 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Totally not confusing 

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People were locking in the RGEM, Euro starting moving towards it, people called it a cave..then all other guidance started moving back towards the Euro. A compromise, where the euro will likely end up closest with these latest trends