As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What’s your call? Ive got 6-10” border to border . With a lot of 6-8” amounts 

I’ve had 2-5” statewide with lolis to 6-7” for days. Never bought the big totals. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not that anyone asked me but I would sans other guidance in lieu of a 50/50 blend of the 12z operational GFS and Euro and call it a day.

Discounting all predecessor runs, too, as they were deltas on their way to what became a pretty starkly clearly converged solution.   

Not sure why a glance at RGEM ever drives one to sullen regret over previous interpretations and so forth.  Do yourselves a favor

[HoarfrostHubb]

Windshield wipers 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve had 2-5” statewide with lolis to 6-7” for days. Never bought the big totals. 

2-5? Wow . Good luck 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Best OMEGA is above the SGZ on the GFS....so perhaps some caution against assuming crazy ratios.

Not exactly a pristine cross hair sig.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-5? Wow . Good luck 

I just think most will be in the 4-5” range so maybe i can pumps in the bump it to 3-6” and call it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best OMEGA is above the SGZ on the GFS....so perhaps some caution against assuming crazy ratios.

Not exactly a pristine cross hair sig.

Oops...that was NAM, but GFS isn't a perfect sig, either.

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Really running out of steam for up here.  My hopes lie with the Icon.  lol

I'll probably wind up with 3-4.

6-8 no  problem.

[Massplow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oops...that was NAM, but GFS isn't a perfect sig, either.

Have you put out an updated map

[moneypitmike]

Time to drop the watch.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The wolf is back maybe some good juju later tonight 

[BombsAway1288]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1880742629731893248?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I actually think that’s a pretty good call. I could see us on the coastal plain losing a decent amount of qpf at the beginning. 
 

Any relation of this storm to Christmas 17’? That was the last time I remember a changeover to a few inches from a strengthening departing storm 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Time to drop the watch.

Actually, it's not bad but take the lower range of that. That's all. It's not wrong, it's just a range.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is probably a well handled 6"er, won by the efforts of the American guidance types ... (sans the NAM and the "yellow" flag).  Now with the late/recent arriving endorsement run by the top dawg model, which other than irrelevant minutia, was similar to the 12z GFS, this should be an easy call at this point.  If it all did something else, that's a failure on the modeling and be done with it.

There could be some lollypop 8" totals but I still have issues seeing this as a bigger QPF verifier due to constrains of

A, storm translation speed;

B, compression circulation mode capping aspects related to development potential.  

These limitations have been in place for days on this and that's not really changed.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

The 18z ICON looks like a well behaved solution.   I realize the rep with this guidance doesn't pass the Lord of The Flies judgement ( haha ) but it looks pretty solid.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I just think most will be in the 4-5” range so maybe i can pumps in the bump it to 3-6” and call it. 

Do you think it’s more likely we wake up to 1-3” for all of SNE or 4-8”? Tomorrow morning models 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I actually think that’s a pretty good call. I could see us on the coastal plain losing a decent amount of qpf at the beginning. 
 

Any relation of this storm to Christmas 17’? That was the last time I remember a changeover to a few inches from a strengthening departing storm 

Will could answer that I think . He’s Encyclopedia Willanica with snowstorms 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Have you put out an updated map

As quickly as kids allow...probably by 7 or 8.

[OceanStWx]

32 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

For reference, all offices produce these maps the same way.

WPC has a super ensemble and they ship us all the members snowfall distributed into bins. You end up with some version of a curve, and we picked the 90/10th percentiles off that curve essentially. So this is probably a result of some wild Kuchera members.

[dendrite]

43 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I actually think that’s a pretty good call. I could see us on the coastal plain losing a decent amount of qpf at the beginning. 
 

Any relation of this storm to Christmas 17’? That was the last time I remember a changeover to a few inches from a strengthening departing storm 

I don’t think Boston is going to lose that much QPF at the beginning. Maybe a little bit as they wait for the BL to cool…Xmas 2017 needed a deeper dynamic cooling from higher aloft before flipping to snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

[Prismshine Productions]

38 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

You'll find that Albany, for lack of a better word...sucks. Also they will cherry pick totals to come closer to forecast verification. I flipped out about it a decade or so ago and they banned me from their FB page lmao.

would love to petition to have southern vermont given to Burlington

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you think it’s more likely we wake up to 1-3” for all of SNE or 4-8”? Tomorrow morning models 

4-8

[qg_omega]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For reference, all offices produce these maps the same way.

WPC has a super ensemble and they ship us all the members snowfall distributed into bins. You end up with some version of a curve, and we picked the 90/10th percentiles off that curve essentially. So this is probably a result of some wild Kuchera members.

Can we have him post here?

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

so obviously it’s right

3-6”/4-7” and call it an evening. 

[Greg]

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Can we have him post here?

Looks left

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Bull’s-eye over Kevin and snow hole over Ineedsleep and Dave? I can’t see that happening like that.

[ineedsnow]

Just ate at Papa Gallos in Keene it was nice to have family time and get a little break from this.. looks like everything came down a bit. Hopefully 0z is better