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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:13 PM, George001 said:

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

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The center is staying offshore. It's not going over the cape at all. The real question now is where does the heaviest banding show-up and what will be the ratios when and if it does. As stated, that will determine the final heaviest possible accumulations of this storm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:21 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol we just typed the same idea.. this is a solid depiction I have no idea what all the "meh" is about 

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The “meh” is because I think too many get addicted to the higher end outputs. When you mentally start expecting a major major snowstorm with over 1” of QPF and then reality smacks you back to half that, there’s an emotional letdown. 
 

But in an absolute sense, this is still a pretty solid event….and there’s still a chance for some banding surprises too. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:20 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow?  Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff. 

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I'm just being a dick at this point....I agree its a low-end warning event.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:27 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RGEM has .6 to .8 frozen qpf for SNE, NAMs aren’t catching on yet, maybe the nail it? But I doubt it 

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NAMs have def been consistently the lowest on QPF aside from the previous Euro runs…but 12z Euro left the NAMs as the lowest now. I’ll feel a bit better if they bump up at 00z. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:20 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow?  Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff. 

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I'll try to explain. If one gets .4-.7 with about 1:10 ratios only and with a 9–10-hour window then it's about 4-7" of snow. If one has everything going for them, such as ratios 13:1 with the best omega banding, elevation, then the roof would be about a 10-12". Generally, that's what we have here. It's not going to be a widespread situation.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:30 PM, Greg said:

I'll try to explain. If one gets .4-.7 with about 1:10 ratios only and with a 9–10-hour window then it's about 4-7" of snow. If one has everything going for them, such as ratios 13:1 with the best omega banding, elevation, then the roof would be about a 10-12". Generally, that's what we have here. It's not going to be a widespread situation.

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Widespread 4-8" is likely, with a pretty large but narrow stripe of 8-10" .. that's been my thinking all along, through some ups and downs, but still looking like that's where we are headed..  Let's see if GFS holds again

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 9:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The “meh” is because I think too many get addicted to the higher end outputs. When you mentally start expecting a major major snowstorm with over 1” of QPF and then reality smacks you back to half that, there’s an emotional letdown. 
 

But in an absolute sense, this is still a pretty solid event….and there’s still a chance for some banding surprises too. 

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You have to look at where those :weenie: 1" QPF maxes are located too. Do they make physical sense. The Reggie has them on the edge and equatorward of the DGZ saturation. The highest QPF is going to be underneath where there is saturation, not adjacent to it.

It's why the highest snow totals are typically west of the QPF max as modeled.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Threw this together earlier. While there is a strong idea for one (maybe two) fronto bands, it’s nearly impossible to know where they occur right now. I do think you’ll see 812” where it happens but not enough confidence where that occurs to highlight on a map. 
 

Also worried for some subsidence zones where snow growth and rates will be awful and that will hold totals lower somewhere. 
 

Of course any last minutes ticks in either direction have huge implications too 

You_Doodle_2025-01-18T21_43_12Z.jpeg.2e1112dfacb2e97b1df7e56ab7ef215e.jpeg

 

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