As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

After all this I’ll be disappointed with less than 6-10”. That should be very doable . I’ll be happy with the snow but unhappy with the rug pull at last minute.. should that happen and turns this into a 1-3” event 

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Well there is nobody to blame but yourself then.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

After all this I’ll be disappointed with less than 6-10”. That should be very doable . I’ll be happy with the snow but unhappy with the rug pull at last minute.. should that happen and turns this into a 1-3” event 

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The Euro won't be denied.   The 12z was its burp run.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well there is nobody to blame but yourself then.

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Well your area has gone from rain to 1-3” so for you it’s a little different 

[Greg]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:58 PM, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro won't be denied.   The 12z was it's burp run.

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Was it a burp, hiccup, or fart?

[dryslot]

This one is heading to an advisory event, 18z Reggie taking out the clippers giving out trims.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie showing you the ass model that it is. 

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Reggie showing you the ass model that it is. 

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More then just the Reggie in that class right now.

[wx2fish]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:04 PM, dryslot said:

This one is heading to an advisory event, 18z Reggie taking out the clippers giving out trims.

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It was a toss when it had over 1.25"+ qpf for many. Coming back to reality. Still gonna be a decent event for most imo

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems like the approaching PV has also trended a bit north over past coupe of days...bet that aids in amplification.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:06 PM, dryslot said:

More then just the Reggie in that class right now.

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It’s the lead car in the Faber college parade driven by John Belushi.

[CoastalWx]

All rain for KDAW?

[brooklynwx99]

lol RGEM has totally caved

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:08 PM, wx2fish said:

It was a toss when it had over 1.25"+ qpf for many. Coming back to reality. Still gonna be a decent event for most imo

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After what we've seen so far, Yes for some.

[weathafella]

People going wild when we are at 72 hours and Reggie was bombing.  Now we’re entering its useful range.  But believe you me I’m cool with 4 inches-very much so.  But I would prefer a few hours of 2-3/hour tbh.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:04 PM, dryslot said:

This one is heading to an advisory event, 18z Reggie taking out the clippers giving out trims.

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Shield your eyes, @Sey-Mour Snow

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:09 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

lol RGEM has totally caved

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It was going over my house a day ago. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:04 PM, dryslot said:

This one is heading to an advisory event, 18z Reggie taking out the clippers giving out trims.

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Again,

this has been 3-6 at best for most if we’re being honest 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

It was going over my house a day ago. 

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I’m not going to lie, 4-6” is just fine in my book. Enjoy the snow with some football and Monday off 

[George001]

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:08 PM, wx2fish said:

It was a toss when it had over 1.25"+ qpf for many. Coming back to reality. Still gonna be a decent event for most imo

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When it doesn’t snow in Maines it means no one else does lol 

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

When it doesn’t snow in Maines it means no one else does lol 

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Open up a couple more IPA's, You're going to need them.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

It was going over my house a day ago. 

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it spitting out 3”/hr rates in E PA was a big red flag. just not happening in this setup

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:15 PM, dryslot said:

Open up a couple more IPA's, You're going to need them.

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For a snowstorm that’s coming to SNE?

[Allsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

It was going over my house a day ago. 

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shield your eyes, @Sey-Mour Snow

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I'll shield my eyes when you are complaining about how you only got 7" and I got 9" lmao 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:12 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not going to lie, 4-6” is just fine in my book. Enjoy the snow with some football and Monday off 

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Still not sure about 6” yet, but should be 4 I hope. NAM was cold but lacked moisture. Let’s get euro QPF with those temps. 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s probably going to be a pretty solid event for most of SNE. Those shifts are just confirming what so many have already posted previously….those zonked 1”+ QPF runs were overdone. A solid 0.4-0.7 QPF with decent ratios is nothing to sneeze at though…especially given the last couple of winters. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

solid consenus on .4 - .7" qpf with banding potential, yet all some can see is advisory level snows? Did we forget how to forecast snow?  Ya if we end up with only .2 to .4" precip then probably mostly advisory stuff. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s probably going to be a pretty solid event for most of SNE. Those shifts are just confirming what so many have already posted previously….those zonked 1”+ QPF runs were overdone. A solid 0.4-0.7 QPF with decent ratios is nothing to sneeze at though…especially given the last couple of winters. 

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lol yup this is a solid depiction I have no idea what all the "meh" is about 

[weathafella]

  On 1/18/2025 at 9:13 PM, George001 said:

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

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The 18z mesos have been less dynamic.  Track is important but are we going to get the mid level boost?  That’s what’s been driving the big totals.