As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[tavwtby]

ALY hoisted warning a few minutes ago... still saying 7+", 8.6 over my head...

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:16 PM, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

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3k or 12?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:16 PM, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

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3km might be even more Meh. Those runs were basically keeping the WCB and CCB completely disjointed. The WCB just runs east with all that convection. Which could be real too. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:16 PM, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

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Not really sure what people are expecting. I feel like that’s what is most likely 

[mreaves]

  On 1/18/2025 at 7:21 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

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No way. The Giants didn’t have a good enough O line for him. 

[weathafella]

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr is meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:26 PM, weathafella said:

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr is meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

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Yeah but it’s def a bit of a red flag for the higher end amounts. We’ll see how 00z goes. 

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:26 PM, weathafella said:

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr are meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

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Watch as we get towards meso range this thing starts chasing convection to the east 

[dryslot]

Mesos showing little interest is a bit concerning, Like some have said, Other then the Euro, Today's trends have been meh, Wait until 0z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Debbie’s already starting . 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but it’s def a bit of a red flag for the higher end amounts. We’ll see how 00z goes. 

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I'm having a hard time finding a Cobb total above 10 inches. The closest really is the GFS around BED right at 10 inches.

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:18 PM, tavwtby said:

ALY hoisted warning a few minutes ago... still saying 7+", 8.6 over my head...

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They have me at 5-9.  

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

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Yup.  But not me.  I'm getting 12".  And that's it.  

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:34 PM, Patrick-02540 said:

They have me at 5-9.  

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4-10 here

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

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I don’t want to be a Debbie, I’m desperate for snow, LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:40 PM, Kitz Craver said:

I don’t want to be a Debbie, I’m desperate for snow, LOL

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So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

[Greg]

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

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There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

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Beggars can’t be choosers this season.  A 6” storm is a MECS in this regime. 
 

[Bryan63]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

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If I got 2-4 I would be ecstatic at this point. Would be nice to see no grass for once.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:45 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Beggars can’t be choosers this season.  A 6” storm is a MECS in this regime. 
 

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This is 1980s when you see Dick Albert putting you in the purple zone lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

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It’s frequently a red flag when NAM is paltry because the bias of that model is to be zonked with huge QPF. We’d be tossing it if it showed a solution tracking over Scooter’s Fanny. I don’t think there’s a reason to be crazy down on this event, but I don’t want unrealistic expectations either….widespread big warning totals (say lots of double digit amounts mixed with with high single digits) might be a heavy lift. 

[George001]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:46 PM, Bryan63 said:

If I got 2-4 I would be ecstatic at this point. Would be nice to see no grass for once.

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I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

[Greg]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:49 PM, George001 said:

I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

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I think you'll be ok with this one coming.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

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That's the result of having so many models creating so much noise.

[tamarack]

  On 1/18/2025 at 7:49 PM, OceanStWx said:

We have to keep in mind the regime we're in right now too. The Pacific jet is in retraction right now, which is more prone to unpredictability in the models. 

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The 90%/most-likely/10% from GYX are as wide as I've seen.  Skowhegan's numbers are <1/6/14.  Uncertainty continues.

[George001]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:51 PM, Greg said:

I think you'll be ok with this one coming.

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Yeah I’m feeling good about this one. This will likely be the biggest storm since the Jan 2022 blizzard here, and there are more threats in the pipeline.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s frequently a red flag when NAM is paltry because the bias of that model is to be zonked with huge QPF. We’d be tossing it if it showed a solution tracking over Scooter’s Fanny. I don’t think there’s a reason to be crazy down on this event, but I don’t want unrealistic expectations either….widespread big warning totals (say lots of double digit amounts mixed with with high single digits) might be a heavy lift. 

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After all this I’ll be disappointed with less than 6-10”. That should be very doable . I’ll be happy with the snow but unhappy with the rug pull at last minute.. should that happen and turns this into a 1-3” event 

[dryslot]

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/18/2025 at 8:52 PM, tamarack said:

The 90%/most-likely/10% from GYX are as wide as I've seen.  Skowhegan's numbers are <1/6/14.  Uncertainty continues.

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Just wait until I get a hold of them in the next hour. 

Those ranges are based off of the WPC super ensemble after all, but there are definitely issues with that. If Kuchera is part of that distribution it is going to shift the 90% to a pretty high number.