As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[tavwtby]

ALY hoisted warning a few minutes ago... still saying 7+", 8.6 over my head...

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

3k or 12?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

3km might be even more Meh. Those runs were basically keeping the WCB and CCB completely disjointed. The WCB just runs east with all that convection. Which could be real too. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.

Not really sure what people are expecting. I feel like that’s what is most likely 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

No way. The Giants didn’t have a good enough O line for him. 

[weathafella]

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr is meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr is meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

Yeah but it’s def a bit of a red flag for the higher end amounts. We’ll see how 00z goes. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Both NAMs are meh.  Long range hrrr are meh.  With that said, let’s see how they are closer in.  We’re still kind of on the outer edge of meso usefulness.

Watch as we get towards meso range this thing starts chasing convection to the east 

[dryslot]

Mesos showing little interest is a bit concerning, Like some have said, Other then the Euro, Today's trends have been meh, Wait until 0z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Debbie’s already starting . 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but it’s def a bit of a red flag for the higher end amounts. We’ll see how 00z goes. 

I'm having a hard time finding a Cobb total above 10 inches. The closest really is the GFS around BED right at 10 inches.

[Patrick-02540]

15 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY hoisted warning a few minutes ago... still saying 7+", 8.6 over my head...

They have me at 5-9.  

[Patrick-02540]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

Yup.  But not me.  I'm getting 12".  And that's it.  

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said:

They have me at 5-9.  

4-10 here

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

I don’t want to be a Debbie, I’m desperate for snow, LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

I don’t want to be a Debbie, I’m desperate for snow, LOL

So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

[Greg]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

Beggars can’t be choosers this season.  A 6” storm is a MECS in this regime. 
 

[Bryan63]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely some red flags.  Not all models are agreeing on a good conveyor belt of moisture and it’s a fast mover. Still, I’d be happy as a pig in shit if I got 4-6”. Everyone should be. 

If I got 2-4 I would be ecstatic at this point. Would be nice to see no grass for once.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Beggars can’t be choosers this season.  A 6” storm is a MECS in this regime. 
 

This is 1980s when you see Dick Albert putting you in the purple zone lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So far it’s the NAM which has been horrific from the beginning on this. If folks tossed Reggie, NAM should be as well. Now if the whole 18z suite cuts way back and then 00z drops to dustings -2” , then Debbie can come 

It’s frequently a red flag when NAM is paltry because the bias of that model is to be zonked with huge QPF. We’d be tossing it if it showed a solution tracking over Scooter’s Fanny. I don’t think there’s a reason to be crazy down on this event, but I don’t want unrealistic expectations either….widespread big warning totals (say lots of double digit amounts mixed with with high single digits) might be a heavy lift. 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

If I got 2-4 I would be ecstatic at this point. Would be nice to see no grass for once.

I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

[Greg]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

I think you'll be ok with this one coming.

[78Blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie’s already starting . 

That's the result of having so many models creating so much noise.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

We have to keep in mind the regime we're in right now too. The Pacific jet is in retraction right now, which is more prone to unpredictability in the models. 

The 90%/most-likely/10% from GYX are as wide as I've seen.  Skowhegan's numbers are <1/6/14.  Uncertainty continues.

[George001]

Just now, Greg said:

I think you'll be ok with this one coming.

Yeah I’m feeling good about this one. This will likely be the biggest storm since the Jan 2022 blizzard here, and there are more threats in the pipeline.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s frequently a red flag when NAM is paltry because the bias of that model is to be zonked with huge QPF. We’d be tossing it if it showed a solution tracking over Scooter’s Fanny. I don’t think there’s a reason to be crazy down on this event, but I don’t want unrealistic expectations either….widespread big warning totals (say lots of double digit amounts mixed with with high single digits) might be a heavy lift. 

After all this I’ll be disappointed with less than 6-10”. That should be very doable . I’ll be happy with the snow but unhappy with the rug pull at last minute.. should that happen and turns this into a 1-3” event 

[dryslot]

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 90%/most-likely/10% from GYX are as wide as I've seen.  Skowhegan's numbers are <1/6/14.  Uncertainty continues.

Just wait until I get a hold of them in the next hour. 

Those ranges are based off of the WPC super ensemble after all, but there are definitely issues with that. If Kuchera is part of that distribution it is going to shift the 90% to a pretty high number.