As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Washington has been pathetic for so long that all the NFC East fans don’t mind them as much these days. That may change quickly though, lol. 
 

Anyways, I’m feeling pretty good about 5-8” into your hood with a chance at 10”+ lolli. I think it might go to town there for a few hours during that period where it’s starting to crank up but shooting ENE at the same time…might be an enhanced few hours of heavy snow. 

ORH will be getting thunder tomorrow!!

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Washington has been pathetic for so long that all the NFC East fans don’t mind them as much these days. That may change quickly though, lol. 
 

Anyways, I’m feeling pretty good about 5-8” into your hood with a chance at 10”+ lolli. I think it might go to town there for a few hours during that period where it’s starting to crank up but shooting ENE at the same time…might be an enhanced few hours of heavy snow. 

That means snowblower time.  I put a full tank in right after thanksgiving and started it.  Don’t want to jinx it by starting it again just to be sure.  Probably will blow Monday late morning.  Ideally this event would be daytime but no such luck.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That means snowblower time.  I put a full tank in right after thanksgiving and started it.  Don’t want to jinx it by starting it again just to be sure.  Probably will blow Monday late morning.  Ideally this event would be daytime but no such luck.  

I actually took my snow blower out of the shed today and started it. I’ve used it once in the past 2 years…zero times in winter of 2022-23 and once last winter in the 1/7 event. 
 

Pretty sure I’ll use it in this event. Hopefully I didn’t jinx it either. It really hits home what a dearth of warning snowfall events we’ve had. I’ve had so many 2-4” events and most of them (until the 12/20 and 1/11 events) were marginal paste that prob accumulated half that on the driveway anyway. Been really pathetic. 

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Was leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro for days, the JV models produce a lot of noise

Expecting Watches into Boston by tonight if Euro/GFS hold

Gee .. wonder how they drew that one up ?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually took my snow blower out of the shed today and started it. I’ve used it once in the past 2 years…zero times in winter of 2022-23 and once last winter in the 1/7 event. 
 

Pretty sure I’ll use it in this event. Hopefully I didn’t jinx it either. It really hits home what a dearth of warning snowfall events we’ve had. I’ve had so many 2-4” events and most of them (until the 12/20 and 1/11 events) were marginal paste that prob accumulated half that on the driveway anyway. Been really pathetic. 

I bought a new snowblower in Dec 2020 and I’ve legit used it twice. Not exactly a good return on investment there 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gee .. wonder how they drew that one up ? All they do for every event is copy the Href . 

 

[Bryan63]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I bought a new snowblower in Dec 2020 and I’ve legit used it twice. Not exactly a good return on investment there 

This is why I'm holding off on it. I will go up to the store and buy one once it's snowing at this rate.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hopefully they lose.  Sorry Mark….i grew up and still am a Giants fan so the eagles are hated.  Though I’m finding it in me to like Washington somehow.

Hopefully no surprise rug pulls with this system and we all enjoy it.

Saquon was a Giant and they blew it.  Go Birds!  I think the vast majority of us will enjoy this system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

GFS may be the new king, at least for the short term.  I wonder what changed for the Euro to cave so much on this run?

In any case, I look forward to a good 4-8" here in E MA. 

I think what we are seeing is merely a closing of the gap...don't forget the a$whooping the GFS just took last weekend.

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro jacks ray with 14” after all that advisory talk lmao 

Yea, if it does work out like this, then I am having a rough season in the medium range...no way to sugar coat it. The fast flow is wreaking havoc with guidance, and me.

My seasonal conceptualization looks pretty solid, though.

[Patrick-02540]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I bought a new snowblower in Dec 2020 and I’ve legit used it twice. Not exactly a good return on investment there 

Last spring around here, you could have picked up a decent snowblower on the side of the street for $50.  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Saquon was a Giant and they blew it.  Go Birds!  I think the vast majority of us will enjoy this system.

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

Is 26 years old and in his prime. He needed to grade offensive line in order to show what he could do. He’s a total team guy and a tremendous athlete. The whole package and no aberration.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think what he did this year was an aberration honestly, same story with Darnold as we already saw 

Is 26 years old and in his prime. He needed to grade offensive line in order to show what he could do. He’s a total team guy and a tremendous athlete. The whole package and no aberration.

[Greg]

I knew last night that the CMC and RGEM were a little too warm in with the thermals and track. The cold air was going to win out in this. Everything else is offshore with the track of the low which makes the most sense at this time. However, this will and still will be a quick moving storm. This puts a cap on some of the highest totals I keep reading about. The reality seems to be the heart of our viewing area will probably be something like a 5-9" to 6-10" inch like event. It's always possible to have a couple or so places pick up on the estimate a foot, but this would be very localized and not widespread. At this time banding and snowfall rates will be the determining factor in final accumulations.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think what we are seeing is merely a closing of the gap...don't forget the a$whooping the GFS just took last weekend.

Yea, if it does work out like this, then I am having a rough season in the medium range...no way to sugar coat it. The fast flow is wreaking havoc with guidance, and me.

My seasonal conceptualization looks pretty solid, though.

When will your new map be out? 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually took my snow blower out of the shed today and started it. I’ve used it once in the past 2 years…zero times in winter of 2022-23 and once last winter in the 1/7 event. 
 

Pretty sure I’ll use it in this event. Hopefully I didn’t jinx it either. It really hits home what a dearth of warning snowfall events we’ve had. I’ve had so many 2-4” events and most of them (until the 12/20 and 1/11 events) were marginal paste that prob accumulated half that on the driveway anyway. Been really pathetic. 

I used it 1/7/24 and for one event in 2022-23 when I didn’t need to but it was new and I figured I’d give it a whirl on 3”…lol.  I probably could have used it for 12/20. But I shoveled the first 3 inches not expecting much more so while I had to shovel again there was no point.  This time I’m waiting till the end.  It’s a robust Ariens and I want to make it work a little.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When will your new map be out? 

Gonna start soon....bit of a late start...but never would have done it before entire 12z suite was in, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good mid level signal from ORH through ASH and MHT

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Saquon was a Giant and they blew it.  Go Birds!  I think the vast majority of us will enjoy this system.

If you were Saquon would you want to sign with a team years away from relevance?  Tough times for the Giants to say the least.  Enjoy the good times while they last.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I knew last night that the CMC and RGEM were a little too warm in with the thermals and track. The cold air was going to win out in this. Everything else is offshore with the track of the low which makes the most sense at this time. However, this will and still will be a quick moving storm. This puts a cap on some of the highest totals I keep reading about. The reality seems to be the heart of our viewing area will probably be something like a 5-9" to 6-10" inch like event. It's always possible to have a couple or so places pick up on the estimate a foot, but this would be very localized and not widespread. At this time banding and snowfall rates will be the determining factor in final accumulations.

I had zero doubt that the Canadien suite was zonked and way too far west, but my main uncertainty surrounded the intensity.....EURO seems to have caved more in that respect than it did with track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the kind of event that isn't a chore to forecast...everything else this season has been so laborious and tedious....but this is the type where I feel compelled to just lock myself in a room, alienate the family, grab the data and unzip-

[Damage In Tolland]

Pending final results after storm.. as of now Euro and NAM are neck and neck in dead last performance wise 

[George001]

I’m all in, thinking 8-12 here

[dryslot]

Do the SREFS crush?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Do the SREFS crush?

yes! 

[BRSno]

Not to derail the discussion, but what was the biggest storm this season in Boston? Is this currently forecasted as the most significant yet (this season)?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

Not to derail the discussion, but what was the biggest storm this season in Boston? Is this currently forecasted as the most significant yet (this season)?

This would probably be bostons biggest storm since Jan 22 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the kind of event that isn't a chore to forecast...everything else this season has been so laborious and tedious....but this is the type where I feel compelled to just lock myself in a room, alienate the family, grab the data and unzip-

Finally we earned one. Find the bands, look at snow growth and go to work. 

[ORH_wxman]

18z HRRR kind of flaccid compared to 12z but still prob 4-8” for most. 

[weathafella]

Keep in mind this is about a 9 hour event.  6-8 is a legit ceiling for the majority of us.