As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Patrick-02540]

6 minutes ago, mreaves said:

So the series is tied 1-1?  Is it best if 5 or best if 7?

Best of 7, we wouldn't know the winner for another 5 winters. 

[brooklynwx99]

well, this works

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro jacks ray with 14” after all that advisory talk lmao 

We take, ratios shoot up

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Didn’t the Euro just smack around the GFS last week?  

Notice I said for the short term.  It was the Euro that got smacked around this time.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro jacks ray with 14” after all that advisory talk lmao 

there's actually a CCB stinger for a couple hours as the low scoots out.  Euro shows up all tardy to the war room and says, "Hey everybody, by the way - "

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

USA! USA!    
although, the Euro croaked the GFS last week. 

Yeah, and one can only hope the court of public opinion bears that ( bold ) in mind the next time, when they "need" the GFS to be right and the Euro to be wrong.

  ...but we dream ...

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

there's actually a CCB stinger for a couple hours as low scoots out

Death band Ray to me on the Euro 

[brooklynwx99]

lol this is a wild trend from the EPS at this range

[Typhoon Tip]

For that matter, the Euro may actually tick west on the next run ... Could be an HFD - BED stinger for a time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

HREF is juicy. Expect BOX map to mirror this. That’s all they use 

[MaineJayhawk]

[hudsonvalley21]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is a wild trend from the EPS at this range

Maybe it’s not done trending yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS gets hammered on that run. 

Ironically among, if not the, most aggressive run so far out of all guidance/history up to this point for eastern zones, too ..   it's like, wtf -  

I've been mentioning, but again..this run seems to have not only capitulated so hard, it's sweetening the deal by manifesting a CCB channel - that's clear in the QPF layout alone.  No need to even cross section that aloft. Looks like E CT to PSM, NH for now, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro ticks W and the GFS just ends up winning this football game 42 to 7.

Kinda sorta like this is trying to be the storm of the season   - from such a shaky beginnings, too.  LOL  

I'm not sure we're done with the 24th/25th by the way.

[ineedsnow]

FWIW

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is a wild trend from the EPS at this range

Yeah that’s a pretty bad performance right there. If we start from yesterday 12z, I think we’re going to end up getting like a 70/30 or 80/20 compromise toward the GFS run. Doesn’t happen too often. I am still slightly worried about the precip shield. Euro finally looks pretty good but there’s still hints of raggedness even there and on GFS (and NAM is more ragged)

[weathafella]

Should be in the height of the storm by halftime of the ravens/bills game here tomorrow evening.

[ineedsnow]

off topic but the most snow Florida has ever seen is 4 inches.. The mean for northern Florida on the EPS is 4    that's wild!   hoping all of us get some good snow out of this!

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Should be in the height of the storm by halftime of the ravens/bills game here tomorrow evening.

And the Iggles right in the middle of the storm

[BRSno]

1 hour ago, 8611Blizz said:

Jack pots emass. Scooter is back in it.

All according to plan

On 1/17/2025 at 10:34 AM, BRSno said:

Don't worry eastern friends, I land in Boston right before the 18z runs and then the adjustments back east can begin

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

off topic but the most snow Florida has ever seen is 4 inches.. The mean for northern Florida on the EPS is 4    that's wild!   hoping all of us get some good snow out of this!

The entire gulf coast down there is in a remarkable setup. Could be some serious accumulations down to the delta in Louisiana and beaches of Alabama and Mississippi…in addition to the Florida panhandle. 

[wxsniss]

Was leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro for days, the JV models produce a lot of noise

Expecting Watches into Boston by tonight if Euro/GFS hold

[CoastalWx]

Scooter is hoping and praying. 

[Greg]

GFS looking nice and snowy. Heaviest east.

[SnowGoose69]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

off topic but the most snow Florida has ever seen is 4 inches.. The mean for northern Florida on the EPS is 4    that's wild!   hoping all of us get some good snow out of this!

My money is that sucker is gonna tick north and it won’t happen.  But some areas near PNS have had 3-4 before like 89/93.  That storm is very similar and similar pattern to 1/27/14 which at this range was located same place and moved north gradually from there.  Pattern doesn’t look as suppressive to me as 89/73

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

And the Iggles right in the middle of the storm

Hopefully they lose.  Sorry Mark….i grew up and still am a Giants fan so the eagles are hated.  Though I’m finding it in me to like Washington somehow.

Hopefully no surprise rug pulls with this system and we all enjoy it.

[ineedsnow]

we can always hope 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Was leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro for days, the JV models produce a lot of noise

Expecting Watches into Boston by tonight if Euro/GFS hold

Don’t think they’ll go watches tonight. If anything probably warnings since the overnight package is gonna be like 18 hours before the onset. Might go watches in afternoon package today? 

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we can always hope 

FWIW 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Hopefully they lose.  Sorry Mark….i grew up and still am a Giants fan so the eagles are hated.  Though I’m finding it in me to like Washington somehow.

Hopefully no surprise rug pulls with this system and we all enjoy it.

Washington has been pathetic for so long that all the NFC East fans don’t mind them as much these days. That may change quickly though, lol. 
 

Anyways, I’m feeling pretty good about 5-8” into your hood with a chance at 10”+ lolli. I think it might go to town there for a few hours during that period where it’s starting to crank up but shooting ENE at the same time…might be an enhanced few hours of heavy snow.