As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[dryslot]

12z NAM looks like crap still with its banding

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not seeing this complete cave. It’s def moving NW but it still looks somewhat ragged and nothing like these bigger hits ala GFS. Euro tracks this well SE of ACK while GFS is over the cape. 

Yeah, I just wrote the same thing actually.   ha    probably about an hr behind everyone. 

it looked to me like the low is still non-committal out there per the 06z run. It was however at least picking a center amid that open pressure well that's more on the western side - mm a nod perhaps.  But while still stubbornly not moving the well, itself, west just yet.  It's also about 4 or so mb deeper. Another nod.   The QPF elements are also "filled" in more so in total. This all gives the affect of west capitulation, but it's not really convincing until -  I just need to see this really unquestionable commit to a west adjustment, and intensity, 12z today or it's too late.  

This will fairly go down as a Euro bust if the 12z mimics the 06z, then the GFS ends up scoring.  Technically, given it's performance window is typically 4.5 days lead, you could almost assign the failure - but a, nothing's happened yet ( ha, can't forget that) and b, the ultra compression/constraining aspects are deterministically challenging enough.   I think it's more an achievement by the GFS ( should this storm prevail more in it's design ), than an indictment by the Euro, because of that limiting factor.  But that's as far as I'll go.

This can't go on beyond this particular 12z run.    As is, it's going to be an ECMWF.org core engineer's Asperger dream come true case study to figure out what went wrong, if not very right.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I just wrote the same thing actually.   ha    probably about an hr behind everyone. 

it looked to me like the low is still non-committal out there, but the 06z run was picking a center amid that open pressure well that's more on the western side - while still stubbornly not moving the well, itself, west just yet.  It's also about 4 or so mb deeper.   The QPF elements are also "filled" in more so in total, this gives the affect of west capitulation but it's not really convincing - I need to see this really unquestionable commit to a west adjustment, and intensity, 12z today or it's too late.  

This will fairly go down as a Euro bust.  Technically, given it's performance window is typically 4.5 days lead, you could almost assign the failure - but a, nothing's happened yet ( ha, can't forget that) and b, the ultra compression/constraining aspects are deterministically challenging enough.   I think it's more an achievement by the GFS ( should this storm prevail more in it's design ), than an indictment by the Euro, because of that limiting factor.  

But this can't go on beyond this particular 12z run.    As is, it's going to be an ECMWF.org core engineers Asperger dream come true case study to figure out what went wrong, if not very right.

Geezus lol.

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Give us heavy heavy paste 

I think some are going to be getting just that and some 15:1 fluff

[ORH_wxman]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still thinking Reggie wrong?

Yes

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I think some are going to be getting just that and some 15:1 fluff

Like the Helloween 2011 storm 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Happy to see the NAMs east and weaker .. lol 24-30 hours out and we still have 3 solutions.. blend is best for all..  Euro will  be at least a 65% cave when set and done it seems which is rare 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM not overly impressed with QPF. Euro-esque. 
 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM not overly impressed with QPF. Euro-esque. 
 

 

Ironically enough Euro-esque solution from 6z is what will make most of this forum happiest

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes

It is interesting that the rgem, fv3 and hrrr are almost identical. Gfs is close.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It is interesting that the rgem, fv3 and hrrr are almost identical. Gfs is close.

I believe that suite is more right than wrong but with an easy move left 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

It is interesting that the rgem, fv3 and hrrr are almost identical. Gfs is close.

Rgem is still significantly warmer than them out east. It’s having trouble getting any accumulating snow inside of 495. Tossed. 
 

 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM not overly impressed with QPF. Euro-esque. 
 

 

Not sure if this is more cause or effect, but the NAM/EC are really drying out the low levels with the CAA tomorrow behind tonight’s front. We keep N-NW flow throughout over the interior and some locations, especially the downslope prone, struggle to resaturate. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Not sure if this is more cause or effect, but the NAM/EC are really drying out the low levels with the CAA tomorrow behind tonight’s front. We keep N-NW flow throughout over the interior and some locations, especially the downslope prone, struggle to resaturate. 

I think the position of the low affects it somewhat. NAM and EC are SE and weaker…not as consolidated. I think a more consolidated low will really make a difference in QPF as the conveyors are more mature. You can see on that saturation coloring how the low level WCB and CCB are basically disjointed whereas on the juicier models, they are linked and much healthier looking. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem is still significantly warmer than them out east. It’s having trouble getting any accumulating snow inside of 495. Tossed. 
 

 

Yep but the slp track is similar for those models and way different for the nam/euro which would keep the whole region snow. With gfs/gem/hrrr it is about guessing rain/snow within that 30 mile line

[J Paul Gordon]

OK 2-4; 3-5 IMBY. Just what they've been saying all along. As long as the ground is white for the cold spell, I'm fine. I was afraid of a rain to dry slot. Not expecting 8-12+ like some folks are dreaming.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

OK 2-4; 3-5 IMBY. Just what they've been saying all along. As long as the ground is white for the cold spell, I'm fine. I was afraid of a rain to dry slot. Not expecting 8-12+ like some folks are dreaming.

you could easily see 8-12" of snow in your area... No consensus yet.. 2-4" with the warmest solutions.. 3-6" with the drier solutions.. 8-12" if you blend the gfs euro and rgem .. we will hopefully get consensus tonight.. might just be a nowcast.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

why are some of you ignoring trend 

It's an important factor in deterministic methodology/philosophy - in fact, ..it may be the most important ( different discussion)

The 00z --> 06z --> 12z  NAM was an improvement, steadily, albeit [likely too small for some users ] just  incrementally so. 

There's this tendency to look at the chart, in hand, and throw hands and forget that time is a huge variable in all this shit.   We can't just negate where we've been.  It's not a monkey-see-monkey do, folks. 

Saying the NAM is like the Euro, and walking away ... it's not abundantly clear to me that that point is less meaningful when both are in a state of delta in subsequent runs. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

you could easily see 8-12" of snow in your area... No consensus yet.. 2-4" with the warmest solutions.. 3-6" with the drier solutions.. 8-12" if you blend the gfs euro and rgem .. we will hopefully get consensus tonight.. might just be a nowcast.. 

Ratios could be good over the interior too…so even if something like half an inch of QPF verified and not larger amounts, could still put up 8” from that. 

[ineedsnow]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ratios could be good over the interior too…so even if something like half an inch of QPF verified and not larger amounts, could still put up 8” from that. 

Definitely .. Would like to see RGEM tick east now .. 

Side note the timing differences are wild, for here some start as early as 11am-1pm .. some as late as 2-4pm.. Huge difference in terms of all the kids sports around here a lot of tournaments and games that might try to hold off on cancelling til last second.. 

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Book it… sorry Tblizz

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

See ...right or wrong, this above to me is what this event should be.   It's limiting the gaudy numbers because the whole of this is still constrained to a lower ceiling. And it happenstance ( if not correctly so - ) ends up where a kind of super blend is.    It fits the limitations ... it's painting middling event, which all told -.   Could be wrong but I'm not sure I see where the "positive bust ceiling" is very high

You know, I was thinking this this morning.  There have been seasons in the past where we wouldn't have even threaded this event.  We were so bountiful of storm chances, verifying them .. with embarrassments of rich results, that this would have been margin-notes consideration and not worth it ..      just an interesting aside -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ineedmaps woke up and went straight to the methamphetamines. 

[J Paul Gordon]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ratios could be good over the interior too…so even if something like half an inch of QPF verified and not larger amounts, could still put up 8” from that. 

Is this because of rapidly falling temps? I guess I've been under the assumption that the storm will begin tomorrow afternoon with temps near 40 and that most of the sifnificant stuff will be over well before dawn. What I haven't been able to figure from the past few pages is how fast the temp drops and how much precip falls after it goes below freezing. It looks like a significant amount will fall after it gets colder. So, everything depends on the location of the storm which could be anywhere from over Providence to out to sea.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Is this because of rapidly falling temps? I guess I've been under the assumption that the storm will begin tomorrow afternoon with temps near 40 and that most of the sifnificant stuff will be over well before dawn. What I haven't been able to figure from the past few pages is how fast the temp drops and how much precip falls after it goes below freezing. It looks like a significant amount will fall after it gets colder. So, everything depends on the location of the storm which could be anywhere from over Providence to out to sea.

It's all about the banding and snow growth zone depth .. surface temps don't matter when the surface is already very cold and melting isn't an issue.. It's been very cold lately that will mitigate the warm temps at the start too ... 

[ineedsnow]

12z ICON  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Icon a bump NW and a bit more amped.. very gfs like 

[Prismshine Productions]

good morning everyone, migraine still there but now just a dull headache, did the Euro finally get off its ass?

[NotSureWeather]

30 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Can anyone give us a broad breakdown of snow amounts according to each of the models?

QPF would be fine, too. A lot of us done haave easy access to the models.

 

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