As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[jbenedet]

The reason why I’m on board with the cmc/Rgem because the GEFS temp anoms most resemble the warmth and location of the BZ on those op runs.

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:41 PM, JC-CT said:

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere

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Crushed.

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:36 PM, dryslot said:

12z HRRR looks good.

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You’re supposed to start with the srefs

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:46 PM, dendrite said:

You’re supposed to start with the srefs

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Did they crush?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:43 PM, jbenedet said:

The reason why I’m on board with the cmc/Rgem because the GEFS temp anoms most resemble the warmth and location of the BZ on those op runs.

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Is the average normal temperature exactly 32?

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:47 PM, dryslot said:

Did they crush?

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You need to ask @ineedsnow

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:47 PM, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

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I think they were a bit under the weather last night

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:47 PM, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

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He should've been all over them.

[dendrite]

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:47 PM, dendrite said:

You need to ask @ineedsnow

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Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:49 PM, ineedsnow said:

Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

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Do you post the maps with your phone all day and night , or PC?

[JC-CT]

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:49 PM, ineedsnow said:

Just logging on lol busy morning today but will do my best 

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Do they still make NoDoz? We used to wash them down with some Jolt.

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:49 PM, dendrite said:

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

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Should be a bit better then 10:1 too

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:52 PM, dryslot said:

Should be a bit better then 10:1 too

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Yeah that has a good 15:1 event total look to it verbatim. I wouldn’t go forecasting that, but someone will get into that zone.

[Patrick-02540]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:27 PM, jbenedet said:

Thanks for posting this right below @ORH_wxman”no issues in coastal NH”.

Yea I know you guys wear snow goggles but I’m most aligned with the Rgem/CMC 

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Some people wear snow goggles, but some other people wear flame goggles.

[JC-CT]

Imagine doubting the JMA

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy heavy snow 

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light event overall

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:58 PM, Torch Tiger said:

light event overall

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Wide area of 8-12 ain’t light son 

[dendrite]

This is the time of year where the torchin twins’ friendship gets dicey. Please hold each other now.

 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you post the maps with your phone all day and night , or PC?

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Either one depends if I'm working, out somewhere or home lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually comparing recent operational GFS runs...   the 18 to 00, to 06 continuity is exceptionally high tolerance actually.  Other than completely irrelevant, ultimately meaningless variance from run to run, those are indistinguishable from one another  (ha, does that sentence get the point across ? ) 

Pick a difference or we take your first born daughter?   Fine!  the QPF is increasing.  But beginning with 18z/54 hr --> 00z/48 hr --> 06z/42 hr ... that kind of continuity is too clad, and just "feels" like it's going to be more right than the Euro - it just does. 

But again ...I still hold some reservations about the upper ranges of QPF for all the reasons that are ad nauseam at this point -

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 2:03 PM, dendrite said:

This is the time of year where the torchin twins’ friendship gets dicey. Please hold each other now.

 

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[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:49 PM, dendrite said:

HRRR has a nice banding signal here with the 0.85ish QPF. Bigly.

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Dont want to jinx us but I’ve been thinking we are lined up for a good band. 6-10 if it plays out that way.  And a coooold wed morning 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 2:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Wide area of 8-12 ain’t light son 

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Remember when some said no chance.. might not be us , but many are getting 8-12 in the Northeast

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:49 PM, dryslot said:

He should've been all over them.

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He died from sleep deprivation.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Could break double digits here. 
still leaning toward 6-8 though. 

[ineedsnow]

Nam a bit west and coming in stronger

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 2:11 PM, ineedsnow said:

Nam a bit west and coming in stronger

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12k is still a mess

[ariof]

  On 1/18/2025 at 1:41 PM, JC-CT said:

Nasty cutoff south of Boston but unfortunately it's likely it will be real, somewhere

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Real, and spectacular.