As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This ain’t Joe Mama’s Euro anymore. 

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The one time we need it to be mostly right, it completely throws up all over itself 

[TheMainer]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:09 PM, dryslot said:

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Hoping it comes a tic west up here, right on the edge I think of the better stuff. We get 4-6 I'll be able to do a pass with the groomer finally, though rather have 8-10. 

Hoping hardly any QPF today as it looks mostly wet

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:08 PM, dryslot said:

06z Euro caved to the other guidance finally, It was by itself for the last couple days.

 

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Nam caved last night, euro this morning.  All hail the GFS?  And the Canadiens mom dieu .  And the Germans.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Reggie!

[dryslot]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:10 PM, TheMainer said:

Hoping it comes a tic west up here, right on the edge I think of the better stuff. We get 4-6 I'll be able to do a pass with the groomer finally, though rather have 8-10. 

Hoping hardly any QPF today as it looks mostly wet

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Euro and Nam may still tic some more, I think other guidance is set other then some noise.

[jbenedet]

The GEFS has trended warmer on Sunday. A lot warmer. 
 

My base case is the CF is basically 5 miles north of me, rain. Then drapes south the 2nd half. Half storm/qpf lost to rain. 
 

Another situation where DAW cashes in but points just south /east of there have significantly less.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:07 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

So.. are we still on for 4-8 for must of CT? With the Euro coming around, might our numbers go up at all?

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Yes or more 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes or more 

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Looks good for the tops of the hills

[mahk_webstah]

Now we wait for indications for where the bands set up and who gets the lollies.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:33 PM, JC-CT said:

Looks good for the tops of the hills

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Reggie SE move was good . My guess is one more is coming last 24 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Scooter stopped posting. Pretty much tells you all you need to know about this Boston points south 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:22 PM, jbenedet said:

The GEFS has trended warmer on Sunday. A lot warmer. 
 

My base case is the CF is basically 5 miles north of me, rain. Then drapes south the 2nd half. Half storm/qpf lost to rain. 
 

Another situation where DAW cashes in but points just south /east of there have significantly less.

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Beer?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:37 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Scooter stopped posting. Pretty much tells you all you need to know about this Boston points south 

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The rgem is the only model right now that is bad for him. It’s dicier further south down toward PYM. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/18/2025 at 11:56 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Final confirmation of a massive cave unfolding by euro .. hope Rgem and gfs go east at 12z for the sake of this forum.. off to the gym 

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Do you have the next two panels available?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:41 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The rgem is the only model right now that is bad for him. It’s dicier further south down toward PYM. 

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If he’s fine, I should be too, being away from the water 

[Damage In Tolland]

Folks freaking out and not sure why. You wanted the Euro and EPS to trend like the GFS . And it did . Nice hit is coming 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:43 PM, moneypitmike said:

Do you have the next two panels available?

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Here’s 48. Don’t really need 54h as it’s gone by then

 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Folks freaking out and not sure why. You wanted the Euro and EPS to trend like the GFS . And it did . Nice hit is coming 

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No one has raised the totals yet for Connecticut. And they still don't have a winter storm watch along the entire coast. Wonder if that will change today ( both in the winter storm watch on the coast and the totals being higher than what they were yesterday )

[tavwtby]

I'm going to stick with 3-6 until I see it on the ground, but having the Euro cave and come around is less of a red flag, what does anyone think? it was chasing convection out east, or the front placement too far east? odd that it was the only one really that far east, maybe the others that are so far west can tick east so everyone is white and no p type issues.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:46 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

No one has raised the totals yet for Connecticut. And they still don't have a winter storm watch along the entire coast. Wonder if that will change today. Both in the winter storm watch on the coast and the totals being higher than what they were yesterday

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Box already has 6+ for half the state

[Damage In Tolland]

Doesn’t matter if in WSW or not. It’s going to snow if you know what you’re looking at .

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t matter if in WSW or not. It’s going to snow if you know what you’re looking at .

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I'm not talking about us.... My sister's down in Fairfield and was asking me. 

Beer?

 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:44 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If he’s fine, I should be too, being away from the water 

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Latitude becomes a bit of an issue in SE MA with what’s going on aloft and potential dryslotting. But even with that said, most non-RGEM guidance at least gives you advisory snows. Close to warning on a few models like GFS but there’s def gonna be a cutoff between places that get 4-8” and only 1-3” at the end. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Give us heavy heavy paste 

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:45 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s 48. Don’t really need 54h as it’s gone by then

 

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Thanks....Looks great for most on this snow-starved forum.

I wish there were more showing greater north-leaning trajectory for the sake of MBY.   But we take regardless.

[dendrite]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:34 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Now we wait for indications for where the bands set up and who gets the lollies.

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I just want as much qpf as possible. It’s going to settle and blow around Monday anyway. 0.50”+ of all snow will be great for the fruit trees with the cold coming in. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:50 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Latitude becomes a bit of an issue in SE MA with what’s going on aloft and potential dryslotting. But even with that said, most non-RGEM guidance at least gives you advisory snows. Close to warning on a few models like GFS but there’s def gonna be a cutoff between places that get 4-8” and only 1-3” at the end. 

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Let’s slide this east over the final 30 hours 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Give us heavy heavy paste 

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Not gonna be paste there. Maybe right at the onset but quickly will go to powder. 

[jbenedet]

Gonna be interesting. We’ve had seasonal cold and many have lost that  +3F that shows up in our background state in situation just like this. 

It’s antecedent warmth.  And the models are back to being too cold already.

Check out obs right now. 

I don’t trust the GFS thermals at all right now. It’s gonna tick warmer along the coast.

I’m also not seeing why the SLP can’t run over SE MA given the orientation of the BZ. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/18/2025 at 12:39 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Beer?

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The wine is flowing at the vatican this morning…