As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 3:55 AM, ORH_wxman said:

That precip shield and thermal field is quite different. Don’t just look at the red L. 

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I do when I need sleep and felt like crap tonight 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is probably best case for most of this forum. Wide swath of 4-8”

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 3:58 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs is probably best case for most of this forum. Wide swath of 4-8”

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It’s a wide swath of 8-12”+ verbatim but ya it is best case

[ineedsnow]

CMC looks the same through 36

[Typhoon Tip]

Still think you guys are looking too closely for details, which are gonna be different at this range and this particular situation from run to run … which are really too minute to signify much 

I was looking for wholesale changes… like a collapse southeast by 150 miles on the track and so forth because that’s what’s really at stake. You’ve got a very trustworthy guidance source in fact the most trustworthy guidance source that completely whiffing the area I think that’s what we should be looking for big changes 

[ineedsnow]

CMC amped

[ineedsnow]

hell of a run for interior SNE

[MJO812]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:02 AM, ineedsnow said:

CMC amped

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Slightly southeast

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:03 AM, ineedsnow said:

hell of a run for interior SNE

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Moral of the story RGEM and GGEM, and GFS largely stayed exactly the same just some noise and bumps east 

[Ginx snewx]

Oh @OceanStWx-86 ubars wut? 4 per hr?

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:04 AM, MJO812 said:

Slightly southeast

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kuchie is 18 here lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher is amped 

(From his X feed…still can’t get it to embed right)

”Where this banding sets up, I'd think 10-14" is reasonable. Fast moving system but really powdery high-ratio snow. Likely toward Worcester Hills -> NW”

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1880464646265794742?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:06 AM, ineedsnow said:

kuchie is 18 here lol

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10:1 is over a foot for you and me

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:07 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher is amped 

(From his X feed…still can’t get it to embed right)

”Where this banding sets up, I'd think 10-14" is reasonable. Fast moving system but really powdery high-ratio snow. Likely toward Worcester Hills -> NW”

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1880464646265794742?s=46&t=096JqkIpgJTvSWddnDYqdA
 

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he's usually really meh with snow events.. that's a good sign this time

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:09 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

10:1 is over a foot for you and me

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we can hope

[ariof]

Going to sleep.

Will know by the page count (currently 53) if the Euro has followed the NAM offshore or not.

[ineedsnow]

west of 18z   I'll be shocked if the Euro is still way east

[The 4 Seasons]

Question for those in the know. Does this site still work for getting the rgem early? It has an option for using the regional but only for 0-24 hours but I can't seem to change that. 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[ineedsnow]

we increase

[ineedsnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:05 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Moral of the story RGEM and GGEM, and GFS largely stayed exactly the same just some noise and bumps east 

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All of the "noise" was se.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:17 AM, ineedsnow said:

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Jesus...zip, thud-

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:15 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Question for those in the know. Does this site still work for getting the rgem early? It has an option for using the regional but only for 0-24 hours but I can't seem to change that. 

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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It works beyond 24h. I don’t think it’s much faster than pivotal these days. It used to be the first one out along with the old black and white maps from the environmental Canada site…but pivotal updates really fast now. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I hated those maps so much

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the "noise" was se.

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Which is great for many.. Going to need more than that noise to get to the euro and the “only advisory snows” .. interesting battle 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:24 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Which is great for many.. Going to need more than that noise to get to the euro and the “only advisory snows” .. interesting battle 

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Advisory to low end warning, yes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I originally said only advisory, but capitulated to Will's counter.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:10 AM, ineedsnow said:

he's usually really meh with snow events.. that's a good sign this time

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Maybe 24"?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/18/2025 at 4:37 AM, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe 24"?

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18-24"..weenies always focusing on the high end.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ukie bumped west and beefed up precip