As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[ORH_wxman]

One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind. 

NAM has been that way too, btw NAM doesn’t look too good at 00z 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM has been that way too, btw NAM doesn’t look too good at 00z 

Spotty and east

[78Blizzard]

NAM is coming in colder this run.

[Spanks45]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Spotty and east

The reverse of the 2015 blizzard...wasn't it the Reggie/gfs that sort of led the way to the big bust out here while the Euro/Nam held tough, almost till the end?

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's what I thought to.  7"-8" back to the border is pretty aggressive.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NAM is coming in colder this run.

And 3k and further east 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

The reverse of the 2015 blizzard...wasn't it the Reggie/gfs that sort of led the way to the big bust out here while the Euro/Nam held tough, almost till the end?

Yup.

[tavwtby]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

that looks like the map that was posted when it first got released, where you see them dropping totals?

one I posted a few hours ago had 11 over my head, back down to 9 now, however the message remains what it always was for the watch.

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY already bringing em down, I'd expect this to be halved in 12 hours... more like 3-6 lollis to 8 under good banding, really not liking euro camp not in alignment, big red flag for the goods for everyone

You might be right, but kind of premature to say this now. I'd be surprised if we don't have a better idea with tonight's 00Z Euro run. 

But... I'm still in the 3"-6" in my mind so I'm not disappointed if that's where we are. 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One of the things I don’t really like about the euro suite is a relative consistency with a somewhat ragged precip shield. There’s still time to make it look better but it’s in the back of my mind. 

Agreed.  If the dynamics aren’t there, it looks questionable, some of the QPF amounts seem to be in that 48-72 hour high.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  If the dynamics aren’t there, it looks questionable, some of the QPF amounts seem to be in that 48-72 hour high.

It is definitely kinda sus how close these cyclones are

[dryslot]

Nam looks like shit.

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

one I posted a few hours ago had 11 over my head, back down to 9 now, however the message remains what it always was for the watch.

 

[moneypitmike]

Even if we can only manage enough to cover the grass, it'll make next week's  mild-down look nicer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed.  If the dynamics aren’t there, it looks questionable, some of the QPF amounts seem to be in that 48-72 hour high.

NWS is going to look silly. This has always been an advisory event.

[ineedsnow]

3k really isn't that bad

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Will the Canadian servers be able to handle the weenies refreshing the biggest Rgem run since 2015

[ineedsnow]

we 0z FV3 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we 0z FV3 

Keep us updated on the Korean model…maybe you can find a version of the CRAS that still runs. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we 0z FV3 

Bruh, You’re out of control…

[apm]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

This close in, the ensembles just cluster with the OP

They have been supporting the Op for days now.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Keep us updated on the Korean model…maybe you can find a version of the CRAS that still runs. 

Doesn't the fv3 decently predict what the gfs will do?

[78Blizzard]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And 3k and further east 

Even though the qpf was less this run on the NAM, thanks to the colder run the end result of the total snow is still the same in many areas as at 18z.  Thanks, Kuchie...  That would be about 7" here.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NWS is going to look silly. This has always been an advisory event.

I dunno if it has to be advisory. I could see this verifying as a low end warning for many but I’m currently a bit skeptical on anything over 8” at the moment. But if you get good snow growth (which has been pegged for some in this event), it won’t take a lot of QPF to verify warning. Like 0.4” of QPF might get you there. 

[Spanks45]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup.

Told the kids, 2-4 yesterday....should probably stick to that, really feel like this one is going east. Gfs burned us last time and well the Canadians haven't fared any better either. I suspect the subtle eastward movements have begun with early 0z runs so far.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Doesn't the fv3 decently predict what the gfs will do?

I don’t think so. They used to run a parallel version of GFS with an FV3 core I think, but I don’t think they are related in their current forms…I could be wrong though. 
 

@OceanStWx would be more up to date than me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno if it has to be advisory. I could see this verifying as a low end warning for many but I’m currently a bit skeptical on anything over 8” at the moment. But if you get good snow growth (which has been pegged for some in this event), it won’t take a lot of QPF to verify warning. Like 0.4” of QPF might get you there. 

Yea, in spots...but NWS having 12" amounts is silly.

[dendrite]

3k has that ukie/ec look. I think we start seeing CMC cave.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Told the kids, 2-4 yesterday....should probably stick to that, really feel like this one is going east. Gfs burned us last time and well the Canadians haven't fared any better either. I suspect the subtle eastward movements have begun with early 0z runs so far.

Yea. I’ve had 2-5” and see no reason to change.