As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, apm said:

And virtually all of its ensembles.  A potent force.

This close in, the ensembles just cluster with the OP

[OceanStWx]

We know that the ensembles in general are all underdispersive (the real outcome sometimes isn’t within the ensemble envelope). But it is quite something to see no EPS members with a significant QPF right now. Normally you would think a few juicy members would be in the 50.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

I'm kind of going with the AI s*** too.

It’s been consistent and did really well in last weekend’s non event. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We know that the ensembles in general are all underdispersive (the real outcome sometimes isn’t within the ensemble envelope). But it is quite something to see no EPS members with a significant QPF right now. Normally you would think a few juicy members would be in the 50.

There are about 10 for SNE

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Well something will be caving at 0z. I'm sure we'll see some sort of compromise but its probably going to be mostly geared towards the Euro. Been burned way too many times on this before. I've had so many situations I get all amped up over crazy NAM/GFS runs at this stage, disregard the Euro, go aggressive on snow maps, only to be burned. The old me would be throwing out 6-10'' or 8-12'' today. Tired of making the same mistakes over and over. But this is depressing...time for a 3rd rum and coke soon. 

 

47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know. I don't really have a good answer for that. But all I know is there have been many instances of being burned, even inside this range because of discounting models or solutions and for various reasons. Some of the reasons include; 1) Because the solutions aren't showing what we want, 2) the solutions go against original thoughts, 3) it is very difficult to separate emotions from a forecast 

I'm speaking from personal experience here but there have been way too many times I jump on the "big snow" train because the NAM and/or GFS + ensembles are coming in hot and heavy...the Euro isn't quite there but "I'm expecting it to come aboard". So I go big on the snow. Then as guidance starts to collapse, I let emotions get in the way of reality and I try and look for anything...something that justifies the snowier scenario, even though its clear and evident its not happening. 

Yesterday I thought this was going to be a pleasant surprise and even today I've made some posts saying I think a foot could be possible where the heaviest banding occurs. And I can sit here now and try to find anything...something to justify that and just run with it because it fits my motive...but the reality is that just isn't there. 

When it comes down to it we just have to ask ourselves, in this type of setup, what warrants a solution which is more amped versus less amped? Off all the pieces at play here, historically what is the outcome? IMO, how quickly that front drops south and east is going to be huge. The more amped solutions are slower with the south and east progression of the front but it is from my brief experience that guidance can often be too slow with this...this would leave me to believe that amped/northwest is not as likely. I am also very nervous with the indications of the stronger convection well off the mid-Atlantic and that playing some role. This is something which has been discounted in the past but often times becomes a bit player. 

Too many flags right now and if we expect there will be some last minute miracle...well that doesn't happen often 

Yea, same thing happened to me last weekend....not this time.

[ineedsnow]

0z HRRR is still amped but came east a tad

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There are about 10 for SNE

Like actually QPF or just a low location that you like?

Because the 12z run was pretty paltry.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

0z HRRR is still amped but came east a tad

How many monitors and screens open do you have? Never seen anything like it

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI Euro

 

This is AI and it draws a worse map than the GEM 30 years ago?  WTF!?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Like actually QPF or just a low location that you like?

Because the 12z run was pretty paltry.

Someone posted 18z . Seymour wx I think 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is AI and it draws a worse map than the GEM 30 years ago?  WTF!?

Ecmwf.int uses ms paint

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone posted 18z . Seymour wx I think 

zero are exactly like rgem and gfs.. 10 members are amped and are well west of the operational run.. The amped members are like 75% as zonked as the GFS .. just looked at the precip panels .. interesting its more impressive than I thought, some of this east of the river is from saturday but west of river this is mostly sunday .. @OceanStWx

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

zero are exactly like rgem and gfs.. 10 members are amped and are well west of the operational run.. The amped members are like 75% as zonked as the GFS ..

Yeah 

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many monitors and screens open do you have? Never seen anything like it

bro is model watching like a hawk

[ineedsnow]

HRRR has the best to the west.. we dryslot 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I posted the AI NARCAN a couple of hours ago...its a general 4-6" region wide...with some spots of 7" in NW CT and ORH CO.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I posted the AI NARCAN a couple of hours ago...its a general 4-6" region wide...with some spots of 7" in NW CT and ORH CO.

Yeah that's what I envisioned a few days ago, never really wavered.  Light/mod hit WOR but better east, in general.  OFC Berks **  Not sure why everyone's so hell-bent on models lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Agreed with Ray. 4-6 seems solid

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah that's what I envisioned a few days ago, never really wavered.  Light/mod hit WOR but better east, in general.  OFC Berks **  Not sure why everyone's so hell-bent on models lol

You mean the things that are the only reason we know a storm is coming at all?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many monitors and screens open do you have? Never seen anything like it

Like a day trader except every screen is a different model from a different site. Phone Alarms going off every 30min while rapidily refreshing with cans of mountain dew littered everywhere. Hasn’t showered in days and pisses into a bucket. If you’re not first, you’re last…

[Torch Tiger]

Of course there will be jackpots and so on, a general 3-7" seems fine to me and room to go upwards (or a snow hole for BAF ) 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, JC-CT said:

You mean the things that are the only reason we know a storm is coming at all?

weird take

[The 4 Seasons]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How many monitors and screens open do you have? Never seen anything like it

He needs snow.

[tavwtby]

[Modfan2]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed with Ray. 4-6 seems solid

Thinking 2-4 down here; thinking the best is going to be NW of me

[tavwtby]

ALY already bringing em down, I'd expect this to be halved in 12 hours... more like 3-6 lollis to 8 under good banding, really not liking euro camp not in alignment, big red flag for the goods for everyone

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

ALY already bringing em down

that looks like the map that was posted when it first got released, where you see them dropping totals?

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Seems bold.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY already bringing em down, I'd expect this to be halved in 12 hours... more like 3-6 lollis to 8 under good banding, really not liking euro camp not in alignment, big red flag for the goods for everyone

Where did they drop seems the same to me? nothing has changed since they issued it,  every piece of guidance held their 12z stance except NAM beefed up.  I’d 00z backs off towards euro then yes they will decrease that 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Seems bold.

That's what I thought to.  7"-8" back to the border is pretty aggressive.