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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I want my motherfukkas!! 

MEX TEXT BULLETIN 

 KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/17/2025  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  20  37| 28  36|  8  18| -2  17| -3  18| -5  24|  7  28| 17 10 29
 TMP  24  35| 28  28|  8  11|  0  10| -2  10| -2  17|  9  22| 19      
 DPT  20  32| 20  14| -1  -6|-10  -5|-10  -3| -9   5|  5  11| 14      
 CLD  PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| PC  CL| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   5   9|  7  11| 15  16|  9  13|  6  10|  4   8|  5   8|  5      
 P12   0  76| 85  51| 95  22|  8  18| 19  19| 10  19| 17  29| 35999999
 P24      76|     92|     96|     18|     19|     22|     39|      999
 Q12   0   1|  2   1|  3   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      2|      3|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  2    |  1    |  2    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  0      
 PZP   4   4|  1   0|  4   4|  2   3|  4   7|  7   7|  9  11| 10      
 PSN  96  54| 27  82| 93  95| 97  94| 93  89| 89  88| 87  79| 75      
 PRS   0  25| 24   7|  2   0|  1   3|  3   3|  4   5|  5   7|  9      
 TYP   S   S| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       1|      4|      8|      0|      0|      0|       |
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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 1:00 AM, weatherwiz said:

The GFS knows how to suck people in and once it has...there is no turning back. Once it shows a big hit, especially for multiple runs, it becomes a game of doing anything possible to justify why the GFS may be right. Been there and done that. No more

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"Guhhhhh, the GFS is run out of Crapon's basement"

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 1:01 AM, JC-CT said:

Tbh, the euro is really the only strung out POS modeling right now. Total island. Objectively, it's the outlier.

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Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 1:05 AM, weatherwiz said:

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

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Heh, yeah lol. Just like they might see the gem and euro as the same "snowless" outliers here. But in reality, the gem and the gfs are much closer to each other than the euro op is to either.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 1:07 AM, JC-CT said:

Heh, yeah lol. Just like they might see the gem and euro as the same "snowless" outliers here. But in reality, the gem and the gfs are much closer to each other than the euro op is to either.

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I have a deal...if guidance doesn't collapse towards the Euro then I will not make a May 1st thread. So for a compromise, if the compromise isn't Euro favored then no May 1st thread. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2025 at 1:05 AM, weatherwiz said:

Well if the Euro was the only model showing a big hit and every other model was a strung out POS...everyone would be tossing those other models and siding with Euro...

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See I think everyone would be terrified in that situation today, despite the front they are putting up.  Euro is the best model but it’s had its head-scratching moments enough to give one pause.

The other models have caught up to the skill of the Euro.  I would still expect a solid compromise in range of solutions.  Feels like with the decent cold this month, and the deepest shot yet pressing down, that the Messenger shifts SE are coming in the amped models.  The Euro is also going to beef up a bit.

We’ve seen this playbook before.

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