Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,702
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Climax
    Newest Member
    Climax
    Joined

As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

Posted Images

Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Two cyclones in close proximity maybe making this a more sensitive scenario than usual

It's likely effected the NAM solutions more than any.   I went over this earlier but paraphrasing ...  tomorrow nights frontal wash is stalling out there between Bermuda and the GA coast by Sunday, and then this rolls up underneath - the NAM's hole-punched QPF layout in the 18z is a moisture starved system; it seems to be delayed in recovering the air mass post that front compared to the other guidance.  I'd hunch that if it could sniff thermodynamic gradient availability, we'd have two meso models with similar depth and rage ;)     And it may end up getting there yet.... just delayed - we'll see. 

But the sensitive scenario, overall, is also related to the intense compression and high speed.  These factors make for tough modeling times translating mechanics through a field that is significantly absorbing/masking the S/W jets.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well not if you’re expecting the Euro to come NW. That wouldn’t be a Euro win 

It would if we get a compromise that is skewed toward the euro (like 70/30 or 80/20). It would still be a pretty big hit for SNE but prob not widespread 1”+ QPF like we see on some of these runs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so the GEFs is a couple mb's deeper per interval.  Mean position indistinguishable from the previous cycle.  The member consolidation is even tighter.  

Sufficed it is to say, this 18z Euro rendition is going to be rather interesting -

yup, vort is tightened up even more, but heights aren't much higher downstream. makes everyone happy from PHL to BOS

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.462c4fb4bc916dbf159d6960a8787c04.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, vort is tightened up even more, but heights aren't much higher downstream. makes everyone happy from PHL to BOS

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.462c4fb4bc916dbf159d6960a8787c04.gif

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that.

Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late.  I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models. 

if you look on the OP, you can see the mean trough over the Midwest weaken a bit, which helps to flatten the overall downstream flow a bit. hence the more zonal yet consolidated PVA

gfs_z500_vort_eus_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.5a31e4fa272c98263ce92fc61000b8db.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you look on the OP, you can see the mean trough over the Midwest weaken a bit, which helps to flatten the overall downstream flow a bit. hence the more zonal yet consolidated PVA

gfs_z500_vort_eus_fh48_trend.thumb.gif.5a31e4fa272c98263ce92fc61000b8db.gif

To me this is a relay of forcing, which nets to keeping the track similar if not spot on the previous run cycle.

The gross, the track would shift E, but the subtle relaxing is actually allow cyclogen parameters to max more.  So the east is then compensated by a deeper slightly west feedback   = the same position by a mb or two deeper.  

It really is the better for it for snow enthusiasts.    Sometimes... we get lucky when threading the needle   ;)

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Threw you a 'like' here but I just hate sacking the EPS inside of D4's ... Even if the EPS goes on to fail in its outlook ( compromise, notwithstanding - ), there's not a whole helluva lot of precedence for that.

Suppose it does capitulate the the GFS - it's already too late.  I don't think I can recall it ever doing that at less than D4

Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming. 

I'm inclined to agree ...     this situation is different.  I mean it just is... stepping back and looking at that trough, it's hard to imagine all that consensus having a different configuration pathway.   It would be easier if this [ probably very ] rare scenario, for the correction vector to go away from the EPS mean.  I think technically the operational was on the western envelope?  

That might be a "yellow" flag

Link to comment
Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean  heh ... it read like,  " whomf whomf" eyes rollin' back in head    hahaha

If we still had the DGEX, @ineedsnowwould be found slumped over in some back alley of downtown Fitchburgh ....passed out with a syringe just streamlining each run intravenously. 

 

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...