As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Spanks45]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah what is that.   I was inclined to think that was just tech glitchy but how and why.

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It seems like they are messing with the parameters of the model....tweeking it maybe?

[JC-CT]

kuchera??

[Typhoon Tip]

oh I know what that is...

Look east of the Carolinas at 42  hours.  It's very proficient with convection out there and it's ( I think ) exposing what's been going on with this model all along.  It's been having trouble locating a low level baroclinic field ( enough ) west of that axis, which it may be over-doing anyway

[Spanks45]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:31 PM, Spanks45 said:

It seems like they are messing with the parameters of the model....tweeking it maybe?

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Trying to find elevations, but doesn't have enough resolution to do so?

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 6:50 PM, ineedsnow said:

probably hold off on watches until tonight

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Just hoisted lol

[dryslot]

Not bad, Got its act together late, 6 hrs sooner and.........

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:27 PM, dryslot said:

Disjointed precip field.

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Ya but huge change from previous runs.. Euro will shift west

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:35 PM, ineedsnow said:

Ya but huge change from previous runs.. Euro will shift west

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Yes big change, The lone holdout now is the Euro.

[Typhoon Tip]

Is that a new headline criteria?   I'm not sure I've ever heard of an "Extreme Cold" watch or warning ...but it's got a region half the size of Texas in a watch.

[wxsniss]

NAM lost the lead piece of energy that was preventing better tilting of trough in its prior runs... that is one of the main reasons NAM has been further southeast compared to other guidance.

2 players shown below

Euro / NAM weaker solutions than other guidance because (i) lead energy #2 (circled green below) was preventing better tilting of trough on NAM up to 12z run, and (ii) subsequent energy #1 is weaker on Euro compared to other guidance.

Now that 18z NAM lost that lead energy #2, all guidance is very similar except for strength of followup energy #1. Canadians have energy #1 on roids and not sure I believe it compared to rest of guidance... all energy is sampled pretty well.

I'm leaning 70/30 GFS/Euro at this point, which would be a great hit for most of SNE.

12z NAM top / 18z NAM bottom:

[MuddyWx]

[CoastalWx]

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Even like a 80-20 gfs euro blend would be okay here.

Just need it to be partially correct 

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:35 PM, dryslot said:

Not bad, Got its act together late, 6 hrs sooner and.........

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3k looks better

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

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We need an east shift on everything save for the euro. Even 20% would probably do the trick.

Canadian and RGEM are absolute non starters here

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

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Not likely, because it would mean less entertaining model solutions so probably that prevents the compromise -

[dryslot]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

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We just don't know.

[OceanStWx]

What a distribution from the 12z ensembles. Very clear two camps for PWM. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

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Most likely 

[dryslot]

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a new headline criteria?   I'm not sure I've ever heard of an "Extreme Cold" watch or warning ...but it's got a region half the size of Texas in a watch.

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Yes and no. It is basically agnostic about the wind. Whether it feels like 30 below or actually is 30 below, cold is cold. The thresholds are dynamic based on climatology though.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a new headline criteria?   I'm not sure I've ever heard of an "Extreme Cold" watch or warning ...but it's got a region half the size of Texas in a watch.

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I believe it's replaced the Wind Chill Watch/Warnings 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Or we could see some of these models shift east and the euro shift a little west.

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Or we just don’t know? Wolfie on the desk?

[OceanStWx]

The fun thing about the 18z NAM is that it would probably bust on the other end. The banding is even north of @dendrite on that run, the watch areas could be too far south.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:36 PM, MuddyWx said:

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I wonder what’s with that absolute porking over Springfield MA?
 

[weatherwiz]

I'm just looking quickly but that QPF output by the NAM may be related to lift. Just looking at fronto/VV it may be signaling subsidence zones

[dendrite]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:31 PM, JC-CT said:

kuchera??

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[weatherwiz]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:44 PM, OceanStWx said:

The fun thing about the 18z NAM is that it would probably bust on the other end. The banding is even north of @dendrite on that run, the watch areas could be too far south.

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[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a new headline criteria?   I'm not sure I've ever heard of an "Extreme Cold" watch or warning ...but it's got a region half the size of Texas in a watch.

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We had the "cold wave warning" back when I was a kid.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/17/2025 at 8:45 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I wonder what’s with that absolute porking over Springfield MA?
 

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Yup, right in my back yard! I know that won't happen... that's supposed to be over BDL down to WEHA