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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

BZ is in the house.

weathafella
weathafella

This is shaping up nicely.  If it holds never doubt me as a thread starter.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Probably a good time to remind everyone:  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2025 at 7:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If Reggie doesn’t move at least 100 miles SE 18z, then Euro suite will need to correct NW

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Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah shit.    man, seeing the Euro cluster this way, it does shake my confidence. 

I had been warning all along that this would be a shorter term correction nightmare.  Spent all that time talking about the compression handling ... recall " < 72 hours"  ? 

But I admit to thinking we might be coalescing the consensus short of 96 hours earlier. Seeing this though...  I don't know.  It could be one or the other wins,  or some percentage of either in a split of the goal posts.  

I was not sold ( still not ) on the heftier impact scenarios tho.  That same compression should really theoretically cap this thing's potential.  I just didn't think that would be because we get flurried -

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though. 

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5-10 years ago we didn’t these massive battles.. though Reggie never went out 4-5 days back then either. Let’s get it just off the Cape and make everyone happy 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 1/17/2025 at 8:10 PM, moneypitmike said:

That’s like Tip starting a thread 7 days out

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Actually ... that's like anyone starting a thread 7 days out and having people that don't know how to read, immediately interpret it as though it's a storm projection - when it's merely discussing the table setting.    

There's no problem with starting threads 5-7 days ahead of a "period of interest" to discuss why.   "Look to this period of time for x-y-z to emerge because - "

If it's a declared a high confidence event thread, that's a different coverage and purpose. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2025 at 8:14 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ... that's like anyone starting a thread 7 days out and having people that don't know how to read, immediately interpret it as though it's a storm projection - when it's merely discussing the table setting.    

There's no problem with starting threads 5-7 days ahead of a "period of interest" to discuss why.   "Look to this period of time for x-y-z to emerge because - "

If it's a declared a high confidence event thread, that's a different coverage and purpose. 

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Lighten up, Francis.  it’s a joke.
:)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

One way to look at this ...

... if the GEFs/GFS and the like were to be say 80% more correct in this battle, that would square the season. 

Because the EPS mean seem to win 80% of the argument on the last coverage.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah, both Will and myself mentioned the NAM was trending since yesterday.  This is incrementally another trend step - almost collapsing toward the "anti EPS" consensus.

Man, this will be really satisfying watching the EPS capitulate

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