RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 6:43 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: ya sucks he's not here to enjoy the chase, just noticed that Expand We bust all in good fun but we need the APATT captain back. Hope he is OK. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 6:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Leaning towards a weighted Euro compromise, like 70/30. Really not a hard forecast for CT imo. Some spots may tickle 6-7” but majority will be below. Expand Ya if you go like 70% euro and 30% GFS and just discount GEM .. you get like a general 4-6" snow for CT and most in SNE not including ratios with the good bands.. I like our first call of 4-8" iso higher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 6:50 PM, ineedsnow said: probably hold off on watches until tonight Expand Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Looks like EURO AI is unchanged on the lower resolution graphics.. Has that GFS 30% EURO 70% blend idea we just mentioned.. very solid for many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:03 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like EURO AI is unchanged.. Has the GFS 30% EURO 70% blend idea we just mentioned.. very solid for many Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:02 PM, OceanStWx said: Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today. Expand or no watches at all.. hopefully we see some agreement tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. Expand 50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. Expand 12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:06 PM, OceanStWx said: 12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard. Expand From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z, what happens then? Expand 3-7, ez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then? Expand Probably burn all NCEP computers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z, what happens then? Expand 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:09 PM, JC-CT said: 3-7, ez Expand 4-8 is just a slant stick away 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:10 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: 4-8 is just a slant stick away Expand yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:10 PM, weatherwiz said: Probably burn all NCEP computers Expand I can see it now, 18z euro barely budges, then 00z nam has an 12-18" stripe from West Hartford to Portland ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then? Expand On 1/17/2025 at 7:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Expand Bingo. Caution flags. It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:11 PM, JC-CT said: yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs Expand I don't think this ends up that dry, EURO will beef up .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:11 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: I can see it now, 18z euro barely budges, then 00z nam has an 12-18" stripe from West Hartford to Portland ME Expand You know it's coming the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:12 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: I don't think this ends up that dry, EURO will beef up .. Expand what does H5 tell us to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:13 PM, weatherwiz said: You know it's coming the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality Expand Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:12 PM, OceanStWx said: Bingo. Caution flags. It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event. Expand NWS needs new color schemes for some of these advisories. Extreme cold watch and winter storm watch too close in shade. Could give someone whose had too many IPAs the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. Expand For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:14 PM, JC-CT said: what does H5 tell us to expect Expand That you should leave Nancy home and tune up the snow blower, a small tic sharper with the trough on EURO will be all the difference between 3-5 and 4-8"+ .. Only time will tell.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:11 PM, JC-CT said: yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs Expand For the general population, if you forecast 3-6 and end up with 3, most people are happy because they got less snow. If you end up with 7 or 8, they don't really know the difference because 6" affects them the same as 7 or 8, basically. I think 4-7 is a good range in a setup like this- for my back yard, (even though I know I am getting 12). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I haven't been around till just now. Has the NAM come out with its monster solution yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. Expand Yeah but I’m pouring at midnight so I may see the drunk snow goggle view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 On 1/17/2025 at 7:23 PM, Patrick-02540 said: I haven't been around till just now. Has the NAM come out with its monster solution yet? Expand Nope. All misses/grazes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The biggest differences is in the strength of the SLP, Nam and euro have it around 997mb whereas the others are 984 ish MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 NAM will go big at 18z to get the interior happy and then everything will be east after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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