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As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend


weathafella
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  On 1/17/2025 at 6:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Leaning towards a weighted Euro compromise, like 70/30. Really not a hard forecast for CT imo. Some spots may tickle 6-7” but majority will be below.

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Ya if you go like 70% euro and 30% GFS and just discount GEM .. you get like a general 4-6" snow for CT and most in SNE not including ratios with the good bands.. I like our first call of 4-8" iso higher 

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You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

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50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region).

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE. 

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12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:06 PM, OceanStWx said:

12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.

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From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:08 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

From an NWS point of view? If NAM and every piece of guidance is all in on 4-8"+ for the region but euro doesn't budge much at 18z and is on an island alone, what happens then?

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:10 PM, ORH_wxman said:

die23.jpg.12a561b923ad32f0835e9377ac87b229.jpg

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Bingo. Caution flags.

It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:13 PM, weatherwiz said:

You know it's coming :lol:

the board explodes and then when the 0z comes out we're all smacked with a hardcore dose of reality 

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Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230. 

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:12 PM, OceanStWx said:

 

Bingo. Caution flags.

It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.

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NWS needs new color schemes for some of these advisories. Extreme cold watch and winter storm watch too close in shade. Could give someone whose had too many IPAs the wrong idea.

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  On 1/17/2025 at 7:11 PM, JC-CT said:

yes, but so is 3 when most of the area gets 2, just have to be selective with obs

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For the general population, if you forecast 3-6 and end up with 3, most people are happy because they got less snow.  If you end up with 7 or 8, they don't really know the difference because 6" affects them the same as 7 or 8, basically.  I think 4-7 is a good range in a setup like this- for my back yard, (even though I know I am getting 12).  

 

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